IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bis/biswps/594.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A quantitative case for leaning against the wind

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew Filardo
  • Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul

Abstract

Should a monetary authority lean against the build-up of financial imbalances? We study this policy question in an environment in which there are recurring cycles of financial imbalances that develop over time and eventually collapse in a costly manner. The optimal policy reflects the trade-off between the short-run macroeconomic costs of leaning against the wind and the longer-run benefits of stabilising the financial cycle. We model the financial cycle as a nonlinear Markov regime-switching process, calibrate the model to US data and characterise the optimal monetary policy. Leaning systematically over the whole financial cycle is found to outperform policies of "benign neglect" and "late-in-the-cycle" discretionary interventions. This conclusion is robust to a wide range of alternative assumptions and supports an orientation shift in monetary policy frameworks away from narrow price stability to a joint consideration of price and financial stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Filardo & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2016. "A quantitative case for leaning against the wind," BIS Working Papers 594, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:594
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/work594.pdf
    File Function: Full PDF document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/work594.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gita Gopinath & Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Loukas Karabarbounis & Carolina Villegas-Sanchez, 2017. "Capital Allocation and Productivity in South Europe," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(4), pages 1915-1967.
    2. Andrea Ajello & Thomas Laubach & David López-Salido & Taisuke Nakata, 2019. "Financial Stability and Optimal Interest Rate Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(1), pages 279-326, March.
    3. Claessens, Stijn & Kose, M. Ayhan & Terrones, Marco E., 2012. "How do business and financial cycles interact?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 178-190.
    4. Jiménez, Gabriel & Ongena, Steven & Peydró, José-Luis & Saurina, Jesús, 2012. "Credit Supply and Monetary Policy: Identifying the Bank Balance-Sheet Channel with Loan Applications," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 102(5), pages 2301-2326.
    5. Karsten R. Gerdrup & Frank Hansen & Tord Krogh & Junior Maih, 2017. "Leaning Against the Wind When Credit Bites Back," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(3), pages 287-320, September.
    6. David Gruen & Michael Plumb & Andrew Stone, 2005. "How Should Monetary Policy Respond to Asset-Price Bubbles?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(3), December.
    7. DellʼAriccia, Giovanni & Laeven, Luc & Marquez, Robert, 2014. "Real interest rates, leverage, and bank risk-taking," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 65-99.
    8. Filardo, Andrew J, 1994. "Business-Cycle Phases and Their Transitional Dynamics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 299-308, July.
    9. Svensson, Lars E.O., 2017. "Cost-benefit analysis of leaning against the wind," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 193-213.
    10. Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2012. "Characterising the financial cycle: don't lose sight of the medium term!," BIS Working Papers 380, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Borio, Claudio & Zhu, Haibin, 2012. "Capital regulation, risk-taking and monetary policy: A missing link in the transmission mechanism?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 236-251.
    12. Michael Woodford, 2012. "Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability," NBER Working Papers 17967, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Philip Lowe & Claudio Borio, 2002. "Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus," BIS Working Papers 114, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Mr. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2016. "Cost-Benefit Analysis of Leaning Against the Wind: Are Costs Larger Also with Less Effective Macroprudential Policy?," IMF Working Papers 2016/003, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Adrian, Tobias & Shin, Hyun Song, 2010. "Liquidity and leverage," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 418-437, July.
    16. Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann, 2009. "Assessing the risk of banking crises - revisited," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    17. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    2. policy, Work stream on macroprudential & Albertazzi, Ugo & Martin, Alberto & Assouan, Emmanuelle & Tristani, Oreste & Galati, Gabriele & Vlassopoulos, Thomas, 2021. "The role of financial stability considerations in monetary policy and the interaction with macroprudential policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 272, European Central Bank.
    3. policy, Work stream on macroprudential & Policy, Monetary & Stability, Financial & Albertazzi, Ugo & Martin, Alberto & Assouan, Emmanuelle & Tristani, Oreste & Galati, Gabriele & Vlassopoulos, Thomas , 2023. "The role of financial stability considerations in monetary policy and the interaction with macroprudential policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 272, European Central Bank.
    4. Svensson, Lars E.O., 2017. "Cost-benefit analysis of leaning against the wind," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 193-213.
    5. Christophe Blot & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2018. "Monetary Policy and Asset Price Bubbles," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2018-37, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    6. Andrew Filardo & Paul Hubert & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2019. "The reaction function channel of monetary policy and the financial cycle," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03403260, HAL.
    7. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3eg9t5b1sb8phpnt79jr73qjr7 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Grégory Levieuge, 2018. "La politique monétaire doit-elle être utilisée à des fins de stabilité financière ?," Revue française d'économie, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 63-104.
    9. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/mqe122bu9lprrh0g2eloopgd is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Svensson, Lars E.O., 2017. "Leaning Against the Wind: Costs and Benefits, Effects on Debt, Leaning in DSGE Models, and a Framework for Comparison of Result," CEPR Discussion Papers 12226, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Uwe Vollmer, 2022. "Monetary policy or macroprudential policies: What can tame the cycles?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5), pages 1510-1538, December.
    12. Adam Cagliarini & Fiona Price, 2017. "Exploring the Link between the Macroeconomic and Financial Cycles," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Jonathan Hambur & John Simon (ed.),Monetary Policy and Financial Stability in a World of Low Interest Rates, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    13. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/74362fq3f99s299n07e84dlcib is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Soyoung Kim & Aaron Mehrotra, "undated". "Effects of monetary and macroprudential policies – evidence from inflation targeting economies in the Asia-Pacific region and potential implications for China," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2016_025, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    15. Soyoung Kim & Aaron Mehrotra, "undated". "Effects of monetary and macroprudential policies – evidence from inflation targeting economies in the Asia-Pacific region and potential implications for China," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2016_025, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    16. David Aikman & Julia Giese & Sujit Kapadia & Michael McLeay, 2023. "Targeting Financial Stability: Macroprudential or Monetary Policy?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(1), pages 159-242, March.
    17. Nückles, Marc, 2020. "Interest rate policy and interbank market breakdown," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 779-789.
    18. Altavilla, Carlo & Laeven, Luc & Peydró, José-Luis, 2020. "Monetary and Macroprudential Policy Complementarities: evidence from European credit registers," CEPR Discussion Papers 15539, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Christophe Blot & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2020. "The asymmetric effects of monetary policy on stock price bubbles," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03403075, HAL.
    20. Borio, Claudio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 182-198.
    21. Ioanna Kokores, 2015. "Lean-Against-the-Wind Monetary Policy: The Post-Crisis Shift in the Literature," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 65(3-4), pages 66-99, july-Dece.
    22. Montagnoli, Alberto & Mouratidis, Konstantinos & Whyte, Kemar, 2021. "Assessing the cyclical behaviour of bank capital buffers in a finance-augmented macro-economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    23. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2018. "What Anchors for the Natural Rate of Interest?," PIER Discussion Papers 98, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; financial stability; leaning against the wind; financial cycle; time-varying transition probability Markov regime-switching model;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:594. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Beslmeisl (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bisssch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.