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What anchors for the natural rate of interest?

Author

Listed:
  • Claudio Borio

    (Bank for International Settlements)

  • Piti Disyatat

    (Bank of Thailand)

  • Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul

    (Bank for International Settlements)

Abstract

The paper takes a critical look at the conceptual and empirical underpinnings of prevailing explanations of low real (inflation-adjusted) interest rates over long horizons and finds them incomplete. The role of monetary policy, and its interaction with the financial cycle in particular, deserve greater attention. By linking booms and busts, the financial cycle generates important path dependencies that give rise to intertemporal policy trade-offs. Policy today constrains policy tomorrow. The policy regime is not neutral and can exert a persistent influence on the economy's evolution, including on the real interest rate. This raises serious conceptual and practical questions about the use of the natural interest rate as a monetary policy guidepost. In developing the analysis, the paper also provides a specific critique of the safe asset shortage hypothesis - a hypothesis that has gained considerable popularity in recent years.

Suggested Citation

  • Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2018. "What anchors for the natural rate of interest?," PIER Discussion Papers 98, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Nov 2018.
  • Handle: RePEc:pui:dpaper:98
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    2. Albertazzi, Ugo & Barbiero, Francesca & Marqués-Ibáñez, David & Popov, Alexander & Rodriguez d’Acri, Costanza & Vlassopoulos, Thomas, 2020. "Monetary policy and bank stability: the analytical toolbox reviewed," Working Paper Series 2377, European Central Bank.
    3. Jean-Luc Gaffard, 2018. "Monetary Theory and Policy: The Debate Revisited," GREDEG Working Papers 2018-33, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    4. Knolle, Julia, 2020. "Prosperity in a Low Interest Environment," MPRA Paper 104332, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Jean-Luc Gaffard & Mauro Napoletano, 2018. "Hétérogénéité des agents, interconnexions financières et politique monétaire : une approche non conventionnelle," Revue française d'économie, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 201-231.
    6. Robert N McCauley, 2019. "Safe assets: made, not just born," BIS Working Papers 769, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Jan Willem van den End & Paul Konietschke & Anna Samarina & Irina Stanga, 2020. "Macroeconomic reversal rate: evidence from a nonlinear IS-curve," DNB Working Papers 684, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    8. Glick, Reuven, 2020. "r* and the global economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    9. Andrey Sinyakov & Alexey Porshakov, 2019. "Estimates of the Natural Rate of Interest for Russia: Is ‘Navigating by the Stars’ Useful?," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 78(4), pages 3-47, December.
    10. Patrik Kupkovic, 2020. "R-star in Transition Economies: Evidence from Slovakia," Working and Discussion Papers WP 3/2020, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    11. van Riet Ad, 2019. "Monetary Policy and Unnatural Low Interest Rates: Secular Stagnation or Financial Repression?," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 70(2), pages 99-135, August.
    12. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2019. "Riders on the Storm," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    13. Jan Willem van den End, 2019. "Effects of QE on sovereign bond spreads through the safe asset channel," DNB Working Papers 647, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mutual funds returns; Investment horizon; Asset pricing; Institutional ownership;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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