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Credit and the natural rate of interest

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  • De Fiore, Fiorella
  • Tristani, Oreste

Abstract

We analyze the properties of the natural rate of interest in an economy where nominal debt contracts generate a spread between loan rates and the policy interest rate. In our model, monetary policy has real effects in the flexible-price equilibrium, because it affects the credit spread. Relying on a definition suitable for this environment, we demonstrate that: (i) the natural rate is independent of monetary policy and (ii) it delivers price stability, if used as the intercept of a monetary policy rule. The second result holds exactly if real balances are remunerated at a constant spread below policy interest rates, approximately otherwise. We also highlight, however, that the natural rate is not robust to model un-certainty. The natural rate reacts differently to aggregate shocks - not only quantitatively but also qualitatively - depending on the underlying model assumptions (e.g. whether or not financial markets are frictionless). JEL Classification: E40, E50, G10

Suggested Citation

  • De Fiore, Fiorella & Tristani, Oreste, 2008. "Credit and the natural rate of interest," Working Paper Series 889, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2008889
    Note: 24907
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    Cited by:

    1. Cúrdia, Vasco & Woodford, Michael, 2016. "Credit Frictions and Optimal Monetary Policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 30-65.
    2. Tristani, Oreste & De Fiore, Fiorella, 2019. "(Un)conventional policy and the effective lower bound," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 1-1.
    3. International Monetary Fund, 2011. "Republic of Korea: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2011/247, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    5. Philipp König & Dmitry Chervyakov, 2017. "The Natural Rate of Interest I: Theory," DIW Roundup: Politik im Fokus 108, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Marco Del Negro & Domenico Giannone & Marc P. Giannoni & Andrea Tambalotti, 2017. "Safety, Liquidity, and the Natural Rate of Interest," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 235-316.
    7. Peter McAdam, 2011. "Technology, hours and factor substitution," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 13, pages 8-12.
    8. Romain Bouis & Łukasz Rawdanowicz & Jean-Paul Renne & Shingo Watanabe & Ane Kathrine Christensen, 2013. "The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy since the Onset of the Financial Crisis," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1081, OECD Publishing.
    9. van den End, Jan Willem & Hoeberichts, Marco, 2018. "Low real rates as driver of secular stagnation: Empirical assessment," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 29-40.
    10. George Bratsiotis, 2018. "Credit Risk, Excess Reserves and Monetary Policy: The Deposits Channel," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 243, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    11. Feng Zhu, 2016. "A spectral perspective on natural interest rates in Asia-Pacific: changes and possible drivers," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Expanding the boundaries of monetary policy in Asia and the Pacific, volume 88, pages 63-149, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Choi, Woon Gyu & Cook, David, 2012. "Fire sales and the financial accelerator," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(4), pages 336-351.
    13. Fiorella De Fiore & Oreste Tristani, 2013. "Optimal Monetary Policy in a Model of the Credit Channel," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 123(571), pages 906-931, September.
    14. Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul & Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat Author-X-Name_First: Piti, 2019. "Monetary policy hysteresis and the financial cycle," BIS Working Papers 817, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Olmos, Lorena & Sanso Frago, Marcos, 2014. "Natural Rate of Interest with Endogenous Growth, Financial Frictions and Trend Inflation," MPRA Paper 57212, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Martin Komrska, 2015. "Rakouská teorie hospodářského cyklu: VAR analýza pro USA v letech 1978-2013 [The Austrian Business Cycle Theory: VAR Analysis for USA between 1978-2013]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(1), pages 57-73.
    17. Otmar Issing, 2009. "In search of monetary stability: the evolution of monetary policy," BIS Working Papers 273, Bank for International Settlements.
    18. Kobayashi, Teruyoshi, 2009. "Firm entry and monetary policy transmission under credit rationing," MPRA Paper 17553, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. André Francisco Nunes De Nunes & Marcelo Savino Portugal, 2016. "Choques No Spread De Crédito Bancário E Suas Implicações Para A Condução Da Política Monetária No Brasil," Anais do XLIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 43rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 046, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    20. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2018. "What Anchors for the Natural Rate of Interest?," PIER Discussion Papers 98, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    21. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat, 2011. "Global imbalances and the financial crisis: Link or no link?," BIS Working Papers 346, Bank for International Settlements.
    22. Luca Dedola, 2011. "Managing exchange rate misalignment and current account imbalances," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 13, pages 2-7.
    23. Bhattarai, Saroj & Lee, Jae Won & Park, Woong Yong, 2015. "Optimal monetary policy in a currency union with interest rate spreads," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 375-397.
    24. George J. Bratsiotis, 2018. "Credit Risk, Excess Reserves and Monetary Policy: The Deposits," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 236, Economics, The University of Manchester.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    credit frictions; monetary policy; natural rate of interest;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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