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Model Misspecification, the Equilibrium Natural Interest Rate, and the Equity Premium

  • ORESTE TRISTANI

This paper analyzes the natural rate of interest and the equity premium in a nonlinear model where agents are uncertain over both future technology growth and the future course of monetary policy. I show that model uncertainty, and notably uncertainty on the future course of monetary policy, can give rise to a sizable precautionary savings motive. This result is potentially problematic for both the estimation of the natural rate and its use as a policy indicator. Monetary uncertainty can also contribute to amplify the equity premium, and to account for its apparent, positive link with inflation. Copyright (c) 2009 The Ohio State University.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1538-4616.2009.00263.x
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Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 41 (2009)
Issue (Month): 7 (October)
Pages: 1453-1479

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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:41:y:2009:i:7:p:1453-1479
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  1. Buraschi, Andrea & Jiltsov, Alexei, 2005. "Inflation risk premia and the expectations hypothesis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 429-490, February.
  2. Rebelo, Sergio & Xie, Danyang, 1999. "On the optimality of interest rate smoothing," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 263-282, April.
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  10. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8403, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  12. Stulz, ReneM., 1986. "Interest rates and monetary policy uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 331-347, May.
  13. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
  14. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0042, European Central Bank.
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  16. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2003. "Robust monetary policy rules with unknown natural rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  17. Epstein, Larry G & Wang, Tan, 1994. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing Under Knightian Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 283-322, March.
  18. Olivier J. Blanchard, 1993. "Movements in the Equity Premium," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(2), pages 75-138.
  19. Pascal J. Maenhout, 2004. "Robust Portfolio Rules and Asset Pricing," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(4), pages 951-983.
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