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The Tradeoffs in Leaning Against the Wind

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  • François Gourio
  • Anil K. Kashyap
  • Jae Sim

Abstract

Credit booms sometimes lead to financial crises which are accompanied with severe and persistent economic slumps. Does this imply that monetary policy should “lean against the wind” and counteract excess credit growth, even at the cost of higher output and inflation volatility? We study this issue quantitatively in a standard small New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model which includes a risk of financial crisis that depends on “excess credit”. We compare monetary policy rules that respond to the output gap with rules that respond to excess credit. We find that leaning against the wind may be attractive, depending on several factors, including (1) the severity of financial crises; (2) the sensitivity of crisis probability to excess credit; (3) the volatility of excess credit; (4) the level of risk aversion.

Suggested Citation

  • François Gourio & Anil K. Kashyap & Jae Sim, 2017. "The Tradeoffs in Leaning Against the Wind," NBER Working Papers 23658, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23658
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    4. Svensson, Lars E O, 2017. "Leaning Against the Wind: The Role of Different Assumptions About the Costs," CEPR Discussion Papers 12249, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Caballero, Ricardo & Simsek, Alp, 2019. "Prudential Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 13832, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Aikman, David & Giese, Julia & Kapadia, Sujit & McLeay, Michael, 2018. "Targeting financial stability: macroprudential or monetary policy?," Bank of England working papers 734, Bank of England.
    7. Rünstler, Gerhard & Bräuer, Leonie, 2020. "Monetary policy transmission over the leverage cycle: evidence for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2421, European Central Bank.
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    9. João F. Gomes & Marco Grotteria & Jessica Wachter, 2018. "Foreseen Risks," NBER Working Papers 25277, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    13. Jan Filacek & Ivan Sutoris, 2019. "Inflation Targeting Flexibility: The CNB's Reaction Function under Scrutiny," Research and Policy Notes 2019/02, Czech National Bank.
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    20. Randal K. Quarles, 2019. "Monetary Policy and Financial Stability : a speech at \"Developments in Empirical Macroeconomics,\" a research conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Reserve Bank ," Speech 1068, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    21. Tobal, Martin & Menna, Lorenzo, 2020. "Monetary policy and financial stability in emerging market economies," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 1(1).
    22. Nückles, Marc, 2020. "Interest rate policy and interbank market breakdown," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 779-789.
    23. Corhay, Alexandre & Kind, Thilo & Kung, Howard & Morales, Gonzalo, 2021. "Discount rates, debt maturity, and the fiscal theory," SAFE Working Paper Series 323, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.

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    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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