The Tradeoffs in Leaning Against the Wind
Credit booms sometimes lead to financial crises which are accompanied with severe and persistent economic slumps. Does this imply that monetary policy should “lean against the wind” and counteract excess credit growth, even at the cost of higher output and inflation volatility? We study this issue quantitatively in a standard small New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model which includes a risk of financial crisis that depends on “excess credit”. We compare monetary policy rules that respond to the output gap with rules that respond to excess credit. We find that leaning against the wind may be attractive, depending on several factors, including (1) the severity of financial crises; (2) the sensitivity of crisis probability to excess credit; (3) the volatility of excess credit; (4) the level of risk aversion.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
|Date of creation:||Aug 2017|
|Note:||CF EFG ME|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Isoré, Marlène & Szczerbowicz, Urszula, 2017.
"Disaster risk and preference shifts in a New Keynesian model,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 97-125.
- Isoré, Marlène & Szczerbowicz, Urszula, 2015. "Disaster risk and preference shifts in a New Keynesian model," MPRA Paper 65643, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- M. Isoré & U. Szczerbowicz, 2016. "Disaster Risk and Preference Shifts in a New Keynesian Model," Working papers 614, Banque de France.
- Marlène Isoré & Urszula Szczerbowicz, 2015. "Disaster Risk and Preference Shifts in a New Keynesian Model," Working Papers 2015-16, CEPII research center.
- Juselius, Mikael & Borio, Claudio & Disyatat, Piti & Drehmann, Mathias, 2016. "Monetary policy, the financial cycle and ultralow interest rates," Research Discussion Papers 24/2016, Bank of Finland.
- Mikael Juselius & Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Mathias Drehmann, 2016. "Monetary policy, the financial cycle and ultra-low interest rates," BIS Working Papers 569, Bank for International Settlements.
- Mikael Juselius & Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Mathias Drehmann, 2017. "Monetary Policy, the Financial Cycle and Ultra-low Interest Rates," PIER Discussion Papers 55, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Mar 2017.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters,in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly Princeton University Press.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8973, June.
- Reinhart, Carmen, 2009. "The Second Great Contraction," MPRA Paper 21485, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Olivier Blanchard & Eugenio Cerutti & Lawrence Summers, 2015. "Inflation and Activity – Two Explorations and their Monetary Policy Implications," NBER Working Papers 21726, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Olivier J Blanchard & Eugenio M Cerutti & Lawrence Summers, 2015. "Inflation and Activity – Two Explorations and their Monetary Policy Implications," IMF Working Papers 15/230, International Monetary Fund.
- Olivier Blanchard & Eugenio Cerutti & Lawrence H. Summers, 2015. "Inflation and Activity: Two Explorations and Their Monetary Policy Implications," Working Paper Series WP15-19, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
- Blanchard, Oliver & Cerutti, Eugenio & SUmmers, Lawrence, 2015. "Inflation and Activity - Two Explorations and Their Monetary Policy Implications," Working Paper Series 15-070, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Gertler, Mark & Karadi, Peter, 2011. "A model of unconventional monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-34, January. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23658. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.