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The Tradeoffs in Leaning Against the Wind

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  • Francois Gourio
  • Anil K. Kashyap

    (Booth School of Business
    Federal Reserve Bank
    Massachusetts Institute of Technology
    University of Chicago)

  • Jae W. Sim

Abstract

Credit booms sometimes lead to financial crises which are accompanied with severe and persistent economic slumps. Does this imply that monetary policy should ?lean against the wind? and counteract excess credit growth, even at the cost of higher output and inflation volatility? We study this issue quantitatively in a standard small New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model which includes a risk of financial crisis that depends on ?excess credit?. We compare monetary policy rules that respond to the output gap with rules that respond to excess credit. We find that leaning against the wind may be attractive, depending on several factors, including (1) the severity of financial crises; (2) the sensitivity of crisis probability to excess credit; (3) the volatility of excess credit; (4) the level of risk aversion.

Suggested Citation

  • Francois Gourio & Anil K. Kashyap & Jae W. Sim, 2017. "The Tradeoffs in Leaning Against the Wind," Working Paper Series WP-2017-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-2017-21
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    Cited by:

    1. Ricardo J. Caballero & Alp Simsek, 2019. "Prudential Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 25977, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Svensson, Lars E O, 2017. "Leaning Against the Wind: The Role of Different Assumptions About the Costs," CEPR Discussion Papers 12249, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Adrian, Tobias & Duarte, Fernando & Grinberg, Federico & Mancini-Griffoli, Tommaso, 2018. "Monetary Policy and Financial Conditions: A Cross-Country Study," CEPR Discussion Papers 12681, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Aikman, David & Giese, Julia & Kapadia, Sujit & McLeay, Michael, 2018. "Targeting financial stability: macroprudential or monetary policy?," Bank of England working papers 734, Bank of England.
    5. Saki Bigio & Eduardo Zilberman, 2020. "Speculation-Driven Business Cycles," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 865, Central Bank of Chile.
    6. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2018. "La relación entre política monetaria y política de estabilización financiera," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 21(2), pages 082-106, August.
    7. João F. Gomes & Marco Grotteria & Jessica Wachter, 2018. "Foreseen Risks," NBER Working Papers 25277, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Randal K. Quarles, 2019. "Monetary Policy and Financial Stability : a speech at \\"Developments in Empirical Macroeconomics,\\" a research conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Reserve Ban," Speech 1068, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Mikael Juselius & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2018. "La política monetaria cercada por un movimiento de pinzas," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 21(2), pages 004-044, August.
    10. Jan Filacek & Ivan Sutoris, 2019. "Inflation Targeting Flexibility: The CNB's Reaction Function under Scrutiny," Research and Policy Notes 2019/02, Czech National Bank.
    11. Mikhail Andreev & M. Udara Peiris & Aleksandr Shirobokov & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2019. "Macroprudential Policy and Financial (In)Stability Analysis in the Russian Federation," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 78(3), pages 3-37, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit risk; financial crisis; monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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