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Should Monetary Policy Lean Against Housing Market Booms?

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  • Sami Alpanda
  • Alexander Ueberfeldt

Abstract

Should monetary policy lean against housing market booms? We approach this question using a small-scale, regime-switching New Keynesian model, where housing market crashes arrive with a logit probability that depends on the level of household debt. This crisis regime is characterized by an elevated risk premium on mortgage lending rates, and, occasionally, a binding zero lower bound on the policy rate, imposing large costs on the economy. Using our set-up, we examine the optimal level of monetary leaning, introduced as a Taylor rule response coefficient on the household debt gap. We find that the costs of leaning in regular times outweigh the benefits of a lower crisis probability. Although the decline in the crisis probability reduces volatility in the economy, this is achieved by lowering the average level of debt, which severely hurts borrowers and leads to a decline in overall welfare.

Suggested Citation

  • Sami Alpanda & Alexander Ueberfeldt, 2016. "Should Monetary Policy Lean Against Housing Market Booms?," Staff Working Papers 16-19, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:16-19
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Alpanda, Sami & Zubairy, Sarah, 2017. "Addressing household indebtedness: Monetary, fiscal or macroprudential policy?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 47-73.
    2. Gregory Bauer & Gurnain Pasricha & Rodrigo Sekkel & Yaz Terajima, 2018. "The Global Financial Cycle, Monetary Policies, and Macroprudential Regulations in Small, Open Economies," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 44(2), pages 81-99, June.
    3. Malik Shukayev & Alexander Ueberfeldt, 2018. "Monetary policy tradeoffs between financial stability and price stability," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 51(3), pages 901-945, August.
    4. Denis Gorea & Oleksiy Kryvtsov & Tamon Takamura, 2016. "Leaning Within a Flexible Inflation-Targeting Framework: Review of Costs and Benefits," Discussion Papers 16-17, Bank of Canada.
    5. repec:eee:ecmode:v:77:y:2019:i:c:p:234-252 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:ijc:ijcjou:y:2017:q:3:a:9 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Ragna Alstadheim & Ørjan Robstad & Nikka Husom Vonen, 2017. "Financial imbalances, crisis probability and monetary policy in Norway," Working Paper 2017/21, Norges Bank.
    8. Gregory H. Bauer & Eleonora Granziera, 2017. "Monetary Policy, Private Debt, and Financial Stability Risks," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(3), pages 337-373, September.
    9. Turdaliev, Nurlan & Zhang, Yahong, 2019. "Household debt, macroprudential rules, and monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 234-252.
    10. Martin Kuncl, 2016. "Assessment of the Effects of Macroprudential Tightening in Canada," Staff Analytical Notes 16-12, Bank of Canada.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic models; Financial stability; Housing; Monetary policy framework;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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