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Should Monetary Policy Lean Against Housing Market Booms?

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  • Sami Alpanda
  • Alexander Ueberfeldt

Abstract

Should monetary policy lean against housing market booms? We approach this question using a small-scale, regime-switching New Keynesian model, where housing market crashes arrive with a logit probability that depends on the level of household debt. This crisis regime is characterized by an elevated risk premium on mortgage lending rates, and, occasionally, a binding zero lower bound on the policy rate, imposing large costs on the economy. Using our set-up, we examine the optimal level of monetary leaning, introduced as a Taylor rule response coefficient on the household debt gap. We find that the costs of leaning in regular times outweigh the benefits of a lower crisis probability. Although the decline in the crisis probability reduces volatility in the economy, this is achieved by lowering the average level of debt, which severely hurts borrowers and leads to a decline in overall welfare.

Suggested Citation

  • Sami Alpanda & Alexander Ueberfeldt, 2016. "Should Monetary Policy Lean Against Housing Market Booms?," Staff Working Papers 16-19, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:16-19
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    Cited by:

    1. Menno, Dominik & Oliviero, Tommaso, 2020. "Financial intermediation, house prices, and the welfare effects of the U.S. Great Recession," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    2. Malik Shukayev & Alexander Ueberfeldt, 2018. "Monetary policy tradeoffs between financial stability and price stability," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 51(3), pages 901-945, August.
    3. Moritz Schularick & Lucas ter Steege & Felix Ward, 2021. "Leaning against the Wind and Crisis Risk," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 199-214, June.
    4. Alpanda, Sami & Zubairy, Sarah, 2017. "Addressing household indebtedness: Monetary, fiscal or macroprudential policy?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 47-73.
    5. Gregory Bauer & Gurnain Pasricha & Rodrigo Sekkel & Yaz Terajima, 2018. "The Global Financial Cycle, Monetary Policies, and Macroprudential Regulations in Small, Open Economies," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 44(2), pages 81-99, June.
    6. Denis Gorea & Oleksiy Kryvtsov & Tamon Takamura, 2016. "Leaning Within a Flexible Inflation-Targeting Framework: Review of Costs and Benefits," Discussion Papers 16-17, Bank of Canada.
    7. Turdaliev, Nurlan & Zhang, Yahong, 2019. "Household debt, macroprudential rules, and monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 234-252.
    8. Nückles, Marc, 2020. "Interest rate policy and interbank market breakdown," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 779-789.
    9. Thore Kockerols & Erling Motzfeldt Kravik & Yasin Mimir, 2021. "Leaning against persistent financial cycles with occasional crises," Working Paper 2021/11, Norges Bank.
    10. Stefan Laséen & Andrea Pescatori, 2020. "Financial stability and interest‐rate policy: A quantitative assessment of costs and benefit," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(3), pages 1246-1273, August.
    11. Gregory H. Bauer & Eleonora Granziera, 2017. "Monetary Policy, Private Debt, and Financial Stability Risks," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(3), pages 337-373, September.
    12. Sami Alpanda & Sarah Zubairy, 2019. "Household Debt Overhang and Transmission of Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(5), pages 1265-1307, August.
    13. Christopher Otrok & Andrew Foerster & Alessandro Rebucci & Gianluca Benigno, 2017. "Estimating Macroeconomic Models of Financial Crises: An Endogenous Regime Switching Approach," 2017 Meeting Papers 572, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Bekiros, Stelios & Nilavongse, Rachatar & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2020. "Expectation-driven house prices and debt defaults: The effectiveness of monetary and macroprudential policies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    15. Ragna Alstadheim & Ørjan Robstad & Nikka Husom Vonen, 2017. "Financial imbalances, crisis probability and monetary policy in Norway," Working Paper 2017/21, Norges Bank.
    16. Górajski, Mariusz & Kuchta, Zbigniew, 2023. "Coordination and non-coordination risks of monetary and macroprudential authorities: A robust welfare analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    17. Martin Kuncl, 2016. "Assessment of the Effects of Macroprudential Tightening in Canada," Staff Analytical Notes 16-12, Bank of Canada.
    18. Grégory Levieuge, 2018. "La politique monétaire doit-elle être utilisée à des fins de stabilité financière ?," Revue française d'économie, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 63-104.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic models; Financial stability; Housing; Monetary policy framework;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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