IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bca/bocawp/14-58.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Addressing Household Indebtedness: Monetary, Fiscal or Macroprudential Policy?

Author

Listed:
  • Sami Alpanda
  • Sarah Zubairy

Abstract

In this paper, we build a dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model with housing and household debt, and compare the effectiveness of monetary policy, housing-related fiscal policy, and macroprudential regulations in reducing household indebtedness. The model features long-term fixed-rate borrowing and lending across two types of households, and differentiates between the flow and the stock of household debt. We use Bayesian methods to estimate parameters related to model dynamics, while level parameters are calibrated to match key ratios in the U.S. data. We find that monetary tightening is able to reduce the stock of real mortgage debt, but leads to an increase in the household debt-toincome ratio. Among the policy tools we consider, tightening in mortgage interest deduction and regulatory loan-to-value (LTV) are the most effective and least costly in reducing household debt, followed by increasing property taxes and monetary tightening. Although mortgage interest deduction is a broader tool than regulatory LTV, and therefore potentially more costly in terms of output loss, it is effective in reducing overall mortgage debt, since its direct reach also extends to home equity loans.

Suggested Citation

  • Sami Alpanda & Sarah Zubairy, 2014. "Addressing Household Indebtedness: Monetary, Fiscal or Macroprudential Policy?," Staff Working Papers 14-58, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:14-58
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/wp2014-58.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kuttner, Kenneth N. & Shim, Ilhyock, 2016. "Can non-interest rate policies stabilize housing markets? Evidence from a panel of 57 economies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 31-44.
    2. Leeper, Eric M. & Plante, Michael & Traum, Nora, 2010. "Dynamics of fiscal financing in the United States," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 156(2), pages 304-321, June.
    3. Piazzesi, M. & Schneider, M., 2016. "Housing and Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1547-1640, Elsevier.
    4. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393, Elsevier.
    5. Adrian, Tobias & Shin, Hyun Song, 2010. "Liquidity and leverage," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 418-437, July.
    6. Carlos Garriga & Finn E. Kydland & Roman Šustek, 2017. "Mortgages and Monetary Policy," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(10), pages 3337-3375.
    7. Javier Bianchi & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2010. "Overborrowing, financial crises and ‘macro-prudential’ taxes," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Oct.
    8. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models—Rejoinder," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 211-219.
    9. Ørjan Robstad, 2014. "House prices, credit and the effect of monetary policy in Norway: Evidence from Structural VAR Models," Working Paper 2014/05, Norges Bank.
    10. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
    11. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2015. "Household leveraging and deleveraging," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(1), pages 3-20, January.
    12. Alan Greenspan & James E. Kennedy, 2005. "Estimates of home mortgage originations, repayments, and debt on one-to-four-family residences," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-41, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2014. "House Price Gains and U.S. Household Spending from 2002 to 2006," NBER Working Papers 20152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Kydland, Finn & Rupert, Peter & Sustek, Roman, 2012. "Housing Dynamics over the Business Cycle," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt7bn5k73m, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    15. Alan Greenspan & James Kennedy, 2008. "Sources and uses of equity extracted from homes," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 120-144, spring.
    16. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    17. Rubio, Margarita & Carrasco-Gallego, José A., 2014. "Macroprudential and monetary policies: Implications for financial stability and welfare," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 326-336.
    18. Sami Alpanda & Gino Cateau & Césaire Meh, 2018. "A policy model to analyze macroprudential regulations and monetary policy," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 51(3), pages 828-863, August.
    19. Andrea Ajello & Thomas Laubach & David López-Salido & Taisuke Nakata, 2019. "Financial Stability and Optimal Interest Rate Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(1), pages 279-326, March.
    20. Paolo Gelain & Kevin J. Lansing & Caterina Mendicino, 2013. "House Prices, Credit Growth, and Excess Volatility: Implications for Monetary and Macroprudential Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(2), pages 219-276, June.
    21. Granziera, Eleonora & Kozicki, Sharon, 2015. "House price dynamics: Fundamentals and expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 152-165.
    22. Lambertini, Luisa & Mendicino, Caterina & Teresa Punzi, Maria, 2013. "Leaning against boom–bust cycles in credit and housing prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1500-1522.
    23. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    24. Gregory H. Bauer & Eleonora Granziera, 2017. "Monetary Policy, Private Debt, and Financial Stability Risks," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(3), pages 337-373, September.
    25. Margarita Rubio, 2011. "Fixed‐ and Variable‐Rate Mortgages, Business Cycles, and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(4), pages 657-688, June.
    26. Guido Lorenzoni, 2008. "Inefficient Credit Booms," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(3), pages 809-833.
    27. Crowe, Christopher & Dell’Ariccia, Giovanni & Igan, Deniz & Rabanal, Pau, 2013. "How to deal with real estate booms: Lessons from country experiences," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 300-319.
    28. Ian Christensen & Paul Corrigan & Caterina Mendicino & Shin‐Ichi Nishiyama, 2016. "Consumption, housing collateral and the Canadian business cycle," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 49(1), pages 207-236, February.
    29. Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Michael Kumhof & Mr. Jaromir Benes, 2014. "Financial Crises in DSGE Models: Selected Applications of MAPMOD," IMF Working Papers 2014/056, International Monetary Fund.
    30. Matteo Iacoviello, 2015. "Financial Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(1), pages 140-164, January.
    31. Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Michael Kumhof & Mr. Jaromir Benes, 2014. "Financial Crises in DSGE Models: A Prototype Model," IMF Working Papers 2014/057, International Monetary Fund.
    32. Sami Alpanda & Alexander Ueberfeldt, 2016. "Should Monetary Policy Lean Against Housing Market Booms?," Staff Working Papers 16-19, Bank of Canada.
    33. Laséen, Stefan & Strid, Ingvar, 2013. "Debt Dynamics and Monetary Policy: A Note," Working Paper Series 283, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    34. Chiara Forlati & Luisa Lambertini, 2012. "Mortgage Amortization and Amplification," Working Papers 201201, Center for Fiscal Policy, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Lausanne, revised Feb 2012.
    35. Carlos Garriga & Rodolfo E. Manuelli & Adrian Peralta-Alva, 2012. "A model of price swings in the housing market," Working Papers 2012-022, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    36. Meenakshi Basant Roi & Rhys R. Mendes, 2007. "Should Central Banks Adjust Their Target Horizons in Response to House-Price Bubbles?," Discussion Papers 07-4, Bank of Canada.
    37. John Geweke, 1999. "Using simulation methods for bayesian econometric models: inference, development,and communication," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 1-73.
    38. Breslaw, Jon & Irvine, Ian & Rahman, Abdul, 1996. "Instrument Choice: The Demand for Mortgages in Canada," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 282-302, May.
    39. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1999. "Monetary policy and asset price volatility," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 84(Q IV), pages 17-51.
    40. Paolo Gelain & Kevin J Lansing & Gisle James Natvik, 2018. "Leaning Against the Credit Cycle," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 16(5), pages 1350-1393.
    41. Sarah Zubairy, 2014. "On Fiscal Multipliers: Estimates From A Medium Scale Dsge Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 55, pages 169-195, February.
    42. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2005. "Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy in a Medium-Scale Macroeconomic Model: Expanded Version," NBER Working Papers 11417, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    43. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 113-172.
    44. Kydland, Finn & Rupert, Peter & Sustek, Roman, 2012. "Housing Dynamics over the Business Cycle," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt7bn5k73m, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    45. Sami Alpanda & Sarah Zubairy, 2016. "Housing and Tax Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2-3), pages 485-512, March.
    46. repec:wil:wileco:2013-20 is not listed on IDEAS
    47. James Poterba & Todd Sinai, 2008. "Tax Expenditures for Owner-Occupied Housing: Deductions for Property Taxes and Mortgage Interest and the Exclusion of Imputed Rental Income," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 84-89, May.
    48. Gertler, Mark & Karadi, Peter, 2011. "A model of unconventional monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-34, January.
    49. Kannan Prakash & Rabanal Pau & Scott Alasdair M., 2012. "Monetary and Macroprudential Policy Rules in a Model with House Price Booms," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-44, June.
    50. Julio J. Rotemberg, 1982. "Monopolistic Price Adjustment and Aggregate Output," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 49(4), pages 517-531.
    51. Martin Uribe & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe, 2005. "Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy In A Medium Scale Macro Model," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 476, Society for Computational Economics.
    52. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    53. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2016. "Monetary Policy Expectations at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(7), pages 1439-1465, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sami Alpanda & Gino Cateau & Césaire Meh, 2018. "A policy model to analyze macroprudential regulations and monetary policy," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 51(3), pages 828-863, August.
    2. Sami Alpanda & Alexander Ueberfeldt, 2016. "Should Monetary Policy Lean Against Housing Market Booms?," Staff Working Papers 16-19, Bank of Canada.
    3. Matthieu Darracq Paries, 2018. "Financial frictions and monetary policy conduct," Erudite Ph.D Dissertations, Erudite, number ph18-01 edited by Ferhat Mihoubi.
    4. Falter, Alexander, 2019. "Macro to the rescue? An analysis of macroprudential instruments to regulate housing credit," Discussion Papers 25/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner, 2018. "What Do We Know About the Effects of Macroprudential Policy?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 85(340), pages 735-770, October.
    6. Mendicino, Caterina & Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2014. "House prices, capital inflows and macroprudential policy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 337-355.
    7. Clancy, Daragh & Merola, Rossana, 2017. "Countercyclical capital rules for small open economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PB), pages 332-351.
    8. Kiley, Michael T. & Sim, Jae, 2017. "Optimal monetary and macroprudential policies: Gains and pitfalls in a model of financial intermediation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PB), pages 232-259.
    9. Sami Alpanda & Sarah Zubairy, 2016. "Housing and Tax Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2-3), pages 485-512, March.
    10. Zhang, Yahong, 2019. "Household debt, financial intermediation, and monetary policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 230-257.
    11. Dominic Quint & Pau Rabanal, 2014. "Monetary and Macroprudential Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model of the Euro Area," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(2), pages 169-236, June.
    12. Schmidt, Sebastian & Wieland, Volker, 2013. "The New Keynesian Approach to Dynamic General Equilibrium Modeling: Models, Methods and Macroeconomic Policy Evaluation," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1439-1512, Elsevier.
    13. Turdaliev, Nurlan & Zhang, Yahong, 2019. "Household debt, macroprudential rules, and monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 234-252.
    14. Giovanni Melina & Stefania Villa, 2018. "Leaning Against Windy Bank Lending," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(1), pages 460-482, January.
    15. Hamed Ghiaie, 2018. "Macroeconomic Consequences of Bank’s Assets Reallocation After Mortgage Defaults," THEMA Working Papers 2018-12, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    16. Bekiros, Stelios & Nilavongse, Rachatar & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2020. "Expectation-driven house prices and debt defaults: The effectiveness of monetary and macroprudential policies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    17. Kilponen, Juha & Orjasniemi, Seppo & Ripatti, Antti & Verona, Fabio, 2016. "The Aino 2.0 model," Research Discussion Papers 16/2016, Bank of Finland.
    18. Giovanni Melina & Stefania Villa, 2018. "Leaning Against Windy Bank Lending," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(1), pages 460-482, January.
    19. Verona, Fabio & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Drumond, Inês, 2017. "Financial shocks, financial stability, and optimal Taylor rules," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PB), pages 187-207.
    20. Giri, Federico, 2018. "Does interbank market matter for business cycle fluctuation? An estimated DSGE model with financial frictions for the Euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 10-22.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing; Transmission of monetary policy; Financial system regulation and policies; Economic models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • R38 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Government Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:14-58. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bocgvca.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bocgvca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.