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Questions, Measures, and Meaning: Interpreting Indicators from the ifo Business Survey

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  • Felix Leiss
  • Stefan Sauer
  • Klaus Wohlrabe

Abstract

In addition to the well-known ifo Business Climate Index for Germany, the ifo Business Survey generates a wide range of further indicators based on monthly responses from around 9,000 companies across all major sectors. These indicators capture current business conditions, expectations, constraints, and sector-specific developments, and many have proven to be valuable leading signals for macroeconomic analysis. This paper provides a systematic guide to interpreting these indicators. We explain the main types of survey questions, outline the methods used to transform responses into economically meaningful measures, and highlight key aspects to consider when interpreting results. Practical examples illustrate how the indicators can be applied in economic analysis, policy advice, and business decision-making.

Suggested Citation

  • Felix Leiss & Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2025. "Questions, Measures, and Meaning: Interpreting Indicators from the ifo Business Survey," CESifo Working Paper Series 12094, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12094
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2018. "The New ifo Business Climate Index for Germany," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 19(02), pages 59-64, July.
    2. Thomas Licht & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2023. "Die deutsche Wirtschaft nach drei herausfordernden Jahren – droht eine Pleitewelle?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 76(12), pages 38-41, December.
    3. Sebastian Link & Stefan Sauer, 2020. "Umfang der Kurzarbeit steigt in Coronakrise auf historischen Höchststand," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(07), pages 63-67, July.
    4. Andreas Peichl & Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2025. "Arbeits- und Fachkräftemangel – aktuelle Lage und Projektionen im europäischen Vergleich," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 78(03), pages 51-57, March.
    5. Zeno Enders & Franziska Hünnekes & Gernot Müller, 2022. "Firm Expectations and Economic Activity," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(6), pages 2396-2439.
    6. Katrin Demmelhuber & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "Branchen im Fokus: Chemische Industrie," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(02), pages 62-64, February.
    7. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Born, Benjamin & Elstner, Steffen & Grimme, Christian, 2019. "Time-varying business volatility and the price setting of firms," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 82-99.
    8. Sauer,Stefan & Klaus Wohlrabe & Stefan Sauer, 2019. "CEO or Intern − Who Actually Answers the Questionnaires in the ifo Business Survey?," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 20(02), pages 29-31, July.
    9. Dovern, Jonas & Müller, Lena Sophia & Wohlrabe, Klaus, 2023. "Local information and firm expectations about aggregates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 1-13.
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    11. Robert Lehmann & Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2022. "Gesamtwirtschafliche ifo Kapazitätsauslastungen für die deutschen Bundesländer," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 29(03), pages 19-25, June.
    12. Link, Sebastian, 2024. "The price and employment response of firms to the introduction of minimum wages," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    13. Stefan Lautenbacher & Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2021. "How Difficult Is It for Managers to Predict Their Future Business Development? A New Measure of Perceived Business Uncertainty," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 22(01), pages 40-42, January.
    14. repec:ces:ifofor:v::y:2018:i::p: is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Sebastian Link & Stefan Sauer, 2020. "Monatlicher Nowcast der realisierten Kurzarbeit auf Basis von Unternehmensbefragungen," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 114.
    16. Robert Lehmann, 2023. "The Forecasting Power of the ifo Business Survey," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(1), pages 43-94, March.
    17. Buchheim, Lukas & Dovern, Jonas & Krolage, Carla & Link, Sebastian, 2022. "Sentiment and firm behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 186-198.
    18. Stefan Sauer & Christian Seiler, 2014. "Konjunkturtest im Fokus: Die Beurteilung der Lagerbestände im Handelsgewerbe," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(04), pages 41-44, February.
    19. Raffaela Seitz & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2021. "Branchen im Fokus: Werbebranche," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 74(08), pages 51-52, August.
    20. R?diger Bachmann & Steffen Elstner & Eric R. Sims, 2013. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 217-249, April.
    21. Robert Lehmann & Ida Wikman, 2025. "Quarterly GDP Estimates for the German States: New Data for Business Cycle Analyses," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 87(4), pages 800-814, August.
    22. Axel Pols & Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2019. "The Bitkom-ifo Digital Index: A New Indicator for the Economic Development of the Digital Economy in Germany," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 20(03), pages 31-32, October.
    23. Daria Schaller & Moritz Schasching, 2024. "Energieintensive Industrie unter Druck," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 77(06), pages 52-60, June.
    24. Link Sebastian, 2020. "Harmonization of the ifo Business Survey’s Micro Data," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 240(4), pages 543-555, August.
    25. Felix Leiss & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2021. "Aktuelle Entwicklungen bei Materialengpässen und Lieferproblemen in der deutschen Wirtschaft," ifo Schnelldienst Digital, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 2(19), pages 03-07, December.
    26. Klaus Wohlrabe & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2017. "Zur Konstruktion einer gesamtwirtschaftlichen ifo Kapazitätsauslastung," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(15), pages 26-30, August.
    27. Timo Wollmershäuser, 2016. "Vorhersage der Revisionen der Vorratsveränderungen mit Hilfe der ifo Lagerbeurteilung," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(07), pages 26-32, April.
    28. Thomas Licht & Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2023. "Wo steht die Veranstaltungsbranche nach drei schwierigen Jahren?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 76(11), pages 52-54, November.
    29. Klaus Borger & Stefan Sauer, 2019. "KfW-ifo-Mittelstandsbarometer: Unterkühlte Stimmung im Mittelstand," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(18), pages 49-51, September.
    30. Thomas Licht & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2024. "Materialengpässe in der Industrie: Ein Blick zurück, Status quo und ein europäischer Vergleich," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 77(03), pages 59-62, March.
    31. Artem Marjenko & Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2019. "Die neue Kredithürde: Hintergründe und Ergebnisse," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(18), pages 46-48, September.
    32. Johanna Garnitz & Stefan Sauer & Daria Schaller, 2023. "Arbeitskräftemangel belastet die deutsche Wirtschaft," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 76(09), pages 60-64, September.
    33. Timo Wollmershäuser, 2018. "Die ifo Investitionserwartungen – ein neuer Frühindikator für die Investitionstätigkeit deutscher Unternehmen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 71(23), pages 32-35, December.
    34. Klaus Wohlrabe, 2022. "Aktuelle Entwicklungen bei Materialengpässen und Lieferproblemen in der Industrie," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 75(08), pages 35-37, August.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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