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Updating inflation expectations: Evidence from micro-data

Author Info

  • Dräger, Lena
  • Lamla, Michael J.

Abstract

Utilizing the Michigan Household Consumer survey’s rotating panel microstructure we can identify if individuals have adjusted their expectations towards inflation. This allows us to directly capture the updating behavior of individual consumers regarding their short- and long-run inflation expectations.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176512004685
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 117 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 807-810

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:117:y:2012:i:3:p:807-810
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet

Keywords: Updating Inflation expectations; Micro-data; Time-varying degree of inattention;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

  • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
  • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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  1. Andrade, Philippe & Le Bihan, Hervé, 2013. "Inattentive professional forecasters," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(8), pages 967-982.
  2. Mojon, Benoît & Altissimo, Filippo & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2007. "Fast micro and slow macro: can aggregation explain the persistence of inflation?," Working Paper Series 0729, European Central Bank.
  3. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Reis, Ricardo, 2002. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Scholarly Articles 3415324, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  4. Pfajfar, D. & Santoro, E., 2012. "News on Inflation and the Epidemiology of Inflation Expectations," Discussion Paper 2012-048, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  5. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process; A Simple Framework and New Facts," IMF Working Papers 12/296, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Souleles, Nicholas S, 2004. "Expectations, Heterogeneous Forecast Errors, and Consumption: Micro Evidence from the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Surveys," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(1), pages 39-72, February.
  7. Michael J. Lamla & Samad Sarferaz, 2012. "Updating Inflation Expectations," KOF Working papers 12-301, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  8. Jonas Dovern & Joerg Doepke & Ulrich Fritsche & Jirka Slacalek, 2006. "The Dynamics of European Inflation Expectations," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 200603, Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik.
  9. Lena Dräger, 2011. "Endogenous Persistence with Recursive Inattentiveness," KOF Working papers 11-285, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  10. Christopher D. Carroll, 2003. "Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 118(1), pages 269-298.
  11. Sims, Christopher A., 2003. "Implications of rational inattention," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 665-690, April.
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Cited by:

  1. Lena Dräger & Michael J. Lamla, 2015. "Disagreement à la Taylor: Evidence from Survey Microdata," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201503, Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik.
  2. Pfajfar, D. & Zakelj, B., 2014. "Experimental evidence on inflation expectation formation," Other publications TiSEM f337739d-e15a-4461-a461-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  3. Xu, Kun & Cheng, Jian-hua & Xu, Wenli, 2016. "通胀及通胀预期冲击的动态特征分析
    [Study on Dynamics of Inflation and Inflation Expectation Shocks in China]    ," MPRA Paper 71977, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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