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Updating inflation expectations: Evidence from micro-data

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Listed author(s):
  • Dräger, Lena
  • Lamla, Michael J.

Abstract

Utilizing the Michigan Household Consumer survey’s rotating panel microstructure we can identify if individuals have adjusted their expectations towards inflation. This allows us to directly capture the updating behavior of individual consumers regarding their short- and long-run inflation expectations.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176512004685
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 117 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 807-810

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:117:y:2012:i:3:p:807-810
DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2012.08.033
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet

Keywords: Updating Inflation expectations; Micro-data; Time-varying degree of inattention;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

  • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
  • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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  1. Doepke Joerg & Dovern Jonas & Fritsche Ulrich & Slacalek Jiri, 2008. "The Dynamics of European Inflation Expectations," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-23, March.
  2. Lena Draeger, 2011. "Endogenous persistence with recursive inattentiveness," KOF Working papers 11-285, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  3. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328.
  4. Filippo Altissimo & Benoît Mojon & Paolo Zaffaroni, 2007. "Fast micro and slow macro: can aggregation explain the persistence of inflation?," Working Paper Series WP-07-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  5. Filippo Altissimo & Benoît Mojon & Paolo Zaffaroni, 2007. "Fast micro and slow macro: can aggregation explain the persistence of inflation?," Working Paper Series WP-07-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  6. Andrade, Philippe & Le Bihan, Hervé, 2013. "Inattentive professional forecasters," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(8), pages 967-982.
  7. Sims, Christopher A., 2003. "Implications of rational inattention," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 665-690, April.
  8. Michael J. Lamla & Samad Sarferaz, 2012. "Updating inflation expectations," KOF Working papers 12-301, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  9. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015. "Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(8), pages 2644-2678, August.
  10. Damjan Pfajfar & Emiliano Santoro, 2013. "News on Inflation and the Epidemiology of Inflation Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(6), pages 1045-1067, 09.
  11. Souleles, Nicholas S, 2004. "Expectations, Heterogeneous Forecast Errors, and Consumption: Micro Evidence from the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Surveys," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(1), pages 39-72, February.
  12. Christopher D. Carroll, 2003. "Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 118(1), pages 269-298.
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Cited by:

  1. Lena Draeger & Michael J. Lamla, 2015. "Disagreement à la Taylor: Evidence from Survey Microdata," KOF Working papers 15-380, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  2. Pfajfar, Damjan & Žakelj, Blaž, 2014. "Experimental evidence on inflation expectation formation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 147-168.
  3. Xu, Kun & Cheng, Jian-hua & Xu, Wenli, 2016. "通胀及通胀预期冲击的动态特征分析
    [Study on Dynamics of Inflation and Inflation Expectation Shocks in China]    ," MPRA Paper 71977, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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