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Updates to Household Inflation Expectations: Signal or Noise?

Author

Listed:
  • Yongchen Zhao

    () (Department of Economics, Towson University)

Abstract

Using data from the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations, we examine the information content of the updates to household inflation expectations. We find that, although consumers frequently revise their expectations, the adjustments are largely uninformative.

Suggested Citation

  • Yongchen Zhao, 2019. "Updates to Household Inflation Expectations: Signal or Noise?," Working Papers 2019-01, Towson University, Department of Economics, revised May 2019.
  • Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2019-01
    as

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    File URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2019-01.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2019
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kajal Lahiri & Yongchen Zhao, 2016. "Determinants of Consumer Sentiment Over Business Cycles: Evidence from the US Surveys of Consumers," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(2), pages 187-215, December.
    2. repec:eee:jmacro:v:58:y:2018:i:c:p:1-18 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Nordhaus, William D, 1987. "Forecasting Efficiency: Concepts and Applications," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(4), pages 667-674, November.
    4. repec:eee:ecolet:v:161:y:2017:i:c:p:112-115 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Damjan Pfajfar & Emiliano Santoro, 2013. "News on Inflation and the Epidemiology of Inflation Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(6), pages 1045-1067, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation expectations; revisions to expectations; household surveys; rational inattention.;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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