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Imperfect Information and Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Microdata

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  • Lamla, Michael
  • Dräger, Lena

Abstract

We investigate the updating behavior of individual consumers regarding their short- and long-run inflation expectations. Utilizing the University of Michigan Survey of Consumer's rotating panel microstructure, we can identify whether individuals adjust their inflation expectations over a period of six months. We find evidence that the updating frequency has been underestimated. Furthermore, looking at the possible determinants of an update we find support for imperfect information models. Moreover, individual expectations are found to be more accurate after an update and forecast accuracy is affected by inflation volatility measures and news regarding inflation. Finally, the updating frequency is found to significantly move spreads in bond markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Lamla, Michael & Dräger, Lena, 2013. "Imperfect Information and Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Microdata," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79908, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc13:79908
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    Cited by:

    1. Lena Dräger & Ulrich Fritsche, 2013. "Don't Worry, Be Right! Survey Wording Effects on In flation Perceptions and Expectations," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201308, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    2. Waldyr D. Areosa, 2016. "What drives inflation expectations in Brazil? Public versus private information," Working Papers Series 418, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    3. Ueno, Yuko, 2014. "Updating Behavior of Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Japanese Household Panel Data," CIS Discussion paper series 617, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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