IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Don't Worry, Be Right! Survey Wording Effects on In flation Perceptions and Expectations

  • Lena Dräger

    ()

    (University of Hamburg)

  • Ulrich Fritsche

    ()

    (University of Hamburg)

We compare the formation of quantitative infl ation perceptions and expectations from questions asked either in terms of price changes or in terms of the in flation rate in a new socio-economic household survey established at the University of Hamburg. In addition to socio-demographic characteristics, we evaluate effects of happiness, trust in people and the central bank, risk attitudes as well as news heard on monetary policy or in flation. We find that the upwards bias of reported perceptions and expectations is higher under the price wording and responses are more heterogeneous, but non-response rates are higher in the infl ation wording. Generally, consumers have lower perceptions or expectations with a higher level of education, which also significantly lowers the probability of non-response. Consumers that perceived positive news on monetary policy or infl ation also tend to give lower infl ation estimates and vice versa. Additionally, our results suggest that happier individuals have significantly lower perceptions and expectations under the price wording, while more risk-averse consumers give significantly higher in flation estimates under the inflation wording.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.wiso.uni-hamburg.de/repec/hepdoc/macppr_8_2013.pdf
File Function: First version, 2013
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik in its series Macroeconomics and Finance Series with number 201308.

as
in new window

Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hep:macppr:201308
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.wiso.uni-hamburg.de/dwp

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Ehrmann, Michael & Tzamourani, Panagiota, 2012. "Memories of high inflation," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 174-191.
  2. Leiser, David & Drori, Shelly, 2005. "NaIve understanding of inflation," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 179-198, March.
  3. Annamaria Lusardi & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2008. "Planning and Financial Literacy: How Do Women Fare?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 413-17, May.
  4. David G. Blanchflower & Conall MacCoille, 2009. "The formation of inflation expectations: an empirical analysis for the UK," NBER Working Papers 15388, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Roberta Colavecchio & Ulrich Fritsche & Michael Graff, 2011. "Inflation Inequality in Europe," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201102, Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik.
  6. Author-Name: Alan S. Blinder & Alan B. Krueger, 2004. "What Does the Public Know about Economic Policy, and How Does It Know It?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 35(1), pages 327-397.
  7. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2006. "Pervasive Stickiness," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2111, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  8. repec:dgr:kubcen:2012048 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2006. "Sticky Information in General Equilibrium," NBER Working Papers 12605, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Pfajfar, D. & Santoro, E., 2008. "Asymmetries in Inflation Expectation Formation Across Demographic Groups," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0824, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  11. Michael J. Lamla & Sarah M. Lein, 2008. "The Role of Media for Consumers' Inflation Expectation Formation," KOF Working papers 08-201, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  12. Lena Dräger & Michael J. Lamla, 2013. "Anchoring of Consumers’ Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Microdata," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201305, Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik.
  13. Mary A. Burke & Michael Manz, 2011. "Economic literacy and inflation expectations: evidence from a laboratory experiment," Public Policy Discussion Paper 11-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  14. Lamla, Michael & Dräger, Lena, 2013. "Imperfect Information and Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Microdata," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79908, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  15. Olivier Armantier & Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2011. "Inflation expectations and behavior: Do survey respondents act on their beliefs?," Staff Reports 509, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  16. Menz, Jan-Oliver & Poppitz, Philipp, 2013. "Households' disagreement on inflation expectations and socioeconomic media exposure in Germany," Discussion Papers 27/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  17. Andreas Orland, 2013. "Personality Traits and the Perception of Macroeconomic Indicators – Survey Evidence," Ruhr Economic Papers 0424, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  18. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2006. "Pervasive Stickiness (Expanded Version)," NBER Working Papers 12024, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2003. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2011, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  20. Michael J. Lamla & Sarah M. Lein, 2010. "The Euro Cash Changeover, Inflation Perceptions and the Media," KOF Working papers 10-254, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  21. Brachinger, Hans Wolfgang, 2008. "A new index of perceived inflation: Assumptions, method, and application to Germany," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 433-457, August.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hep:macppr:201308. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ulrich Fritsche)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.