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Don't Worry, Be Right! Survey Wording Effects on In flation Perceptions and Expectations

  • Lena Dräger

    ()

    (University of Hamburg)

  • Ulrich Fritsche

    ()

    (University of Hamburg)

We compare the formation of quantitative infl ation perceptions and expectations from questions asked either in terms of price changes or in terms of the in flation rate in a new socio-economic household survey established at the University of Hamburg. In addition to socio-demographic characteristics, we evaluate effects of happiness, trust in people and the central bank, risk attitudes as well as news heard on monetary policy or in flation. We find that the upwards bias of reported perceptions and expectations is higher under the price wording and responses are more heterogeneous, but non-response rates are higher in the infl ation wording. Generally, consumers have lower perceptions or expectations with a higher level of education, which also significantly lowers the probability of non-response. Consumers that perceived positive news on monetary policy or infl ation also tend to give lower infl ation estimates and vice versa. Additionally, our results suggest that happier individuals have significantly lower perceptions and expectations under the price wording, while more risk-averse consumers give significantly higher in flation estimates under the inflation wording.

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File URL: http://www.wiso.uni-hamburg.de/repec/hepdoc/macppr_8_2013.pdf
File Function: First version, 2013
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Paper provided by Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik in its series Macroeconomics and Finance Series with number 201308.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hep:macppr:201308
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.wiso.uni-hamburg.de/dwp

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  1. Pfajfar, D. & Santoro, E., 2008. "Asymmetries in Inflation Expectation Formation Across Demographic Groups," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0824, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  2. Blinder, Alan S. & Krueger, Alan B., 2004. "What Does the Public Know about Economic Policy, and How Does It Know It?," IZA Discussion Papers 1324, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
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  15. Lamla, Michael & Dräger, Lena, 2013. "Imperfect Information and Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Microdata," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79908, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
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  18. Brachinger, Hans Wolfgang, 2008. "A new index of perceived inflation: Assumptions, method, and application to Germany," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 433-457, August.
  19. Menz, Jan-Oliver & Poppitz, Philipp, 2013. "Household`s Disagreement on Inflation Expectations and Socioeconomic Media Exposure in Germany," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 80006, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
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