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Household`s Disagreement on Inflation Expectations and Socioeconomic Media Exposure in Germany


  • Menz, Jan-Oliver
  • Poppitz, Philipp


Inflation expectations are often found to depend on socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of households, such as age, income and education, however, the reasons for this systematic heterogeneity are not yet fully understood. Since accounting for these expectation differentials could help improve the communication strategies of central banks, we test the impact of three sources of the demographic effect on inflation expectations using data for Germany. Overall, our findings suggest that household-specific inflation rates and group-specific news consumption accounts for the higher forecast errors of younger and older households, households with lower income and unemployed survey respondents, while households inflation perceptions only play a minor role.

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  • Menz, Jan-Oliver & Poppitz, Philipp, 2013. "Household`s Disagreement on Inflation Expectations and Socioeconomic Media Exposure in Germany," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 80006, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc13:80006

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Francesco D’Acunto & Daniel Hoang & Michael Weber, 2017. "The Effect of Unconventional Fiscal Policy on Consumption Expenditure," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 15(1), pages 09-11, April.
    2. Michael Ehrmann & Damjan Pfajfar & Emiliano Santoro, 2017. "Consumers' Attitudes and Their Inflation Expectations," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(1), pages 225-259, February.
    3. Baerg, Nicole Rae, 2014. "War of the Words: How Elites' Communication Changes the Economy," MPRA Paper 59823, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Lena Dräger & Ulrich Fritsche, 2013. "Don't Worry, Be Right! Survey Wording Effects on In flation Perceptions and Expectations," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201308, Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik.
    5. David-Jan Jansen & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2017. "News Consumption, Political Preferences, and Accurate Views on Inflation," Research Papers in Economics 2017-03, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    6. Ehrmann, M. & Pfajfar, D. & Santoro, E., 2014. "Consumer Attitudes and the Epidemiology of Inflation Expectations," Discussion Paper 2014-029, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    7. Friedrich Fritzer & Fabio Rumler, 2015. "Determinants of Inflation Perceptions and Expectations: an Empirical Analysis for Austria," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 11-26.
    8. Michael Weber & Daniel Hoang & Francesco D'Acunto, 2015. "Inflation Expectations and Consumption Expenditure," 2015 Meeting Papers 1266, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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