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Determinants of Inflation Perceptions and Expectations: an Empirical Analysis for Austria

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Abstract

This study uses micro data from a survey among 2,000 Austrian households conducted in 2013 to investigate the socioeconomic determinants of inflation perceptions and expectations. In our econometric analysis, we find that socioeconomically disadvantaged respondents (less income, lower educational attainment) and older interviewees tend to have higher inflation perceptions. In contrast, respondents living in larger households or in agglomerations with more than 5,000 inhabitants have lower inflation perceptions. As to inflation expectations, we find that older and less educated people tend to report higher inflation expectations. Additionally, we document that women tend to have higher inflation expectations than men and that knowledge of the Eurosystem’s definition of price stability dampens inflation expectations. Moreover, respondents who are skeptical about the reliability of the official inflation indicators state higher inflation expectations. As largely correct and realistic inflation perceptions and expectations are important for the credibility of monetary policy, these results suggest that financial education strategies should be focused on population groups with lower educational attainment, less income and on younger people.

Suggested Citation

  • Friedrich Fritzer & Fabio Rumler, 2015. "Determinants of Inflation Perceptions and Expectations: an Empirical Analysis for Austria," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 11-26.
  • Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbmp:y:2015:i:1:b:2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Pedersen, 2020. "Surveying the survey: What can we learn about the effects of monetary policy on inflation expectations?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 889, Central Bank of Chile.
    2. Treu, Johannes & Hartwig, Johannes, 2023. "Perceived Inflation in Germany in 2022," MPRA Paper 118403, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Sitikantha Pattanaik & Silu Muduli & Soumyajit Ray, 2020. "Inflation expectations of households: do they influence wage-price dynamics in India?," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 244-263, September.
    4. Rumler, Fabio & Valderrama, María Teresa, 2020. "Inflation literacy and inflation expectations: Evidence from Austrian household survey data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 8-23.
    5. Dimitris Christelis & Dimitris Georgarakos & Tullio Jappelli & Maarten van Rooij, 2020. "Trust in the Central Bank and Inflation Expectations," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(6), pages 1-37, December.
    6. Reid, Monique & Siklos, Pierre & Plessis, Stan Du, 2021. "What drives household inflation expectations in South Africa? Demographics and anchoring under inflation targeting," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(3).
    7. Nam, Minho & Go, Minji, 2018. "Nexus between Inflation, Inflation Perceptions and Expectations," KDI Journal of Economic Policy, Korea Development Institute (KDI), vol. 40(3), pages 45-68.
    8. Dzmitry Kruk, 2016. "SVAR Approach for Extracting Inflation Expectations Given Severe Monetary Shocks: Evidence from Belarus," BEROC Working Paper Series 39, Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC).
    9. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Osbat, Chiara, 2017. "Low inflation in the euro area: Causes and consequences," Occasional Paper Series 181, European Central Bank.
    10. Treu, Johannes & Hartwig, Johannes, 2022. "Messung der gefühlten Inflation in Deutschland," IU Discussion Papers - Business & Management 12 (November 2022), IU International University of Applied Sciences.
    11. Pedersen, Michael, 2024. "The effect of monetary policy on inflation expectations: Evidence from a financial traders survey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    12. Şule GÜNDÜZ & Seçkin YILDIRIM & Mübeccel Banu DURUKAN, 2020. "An Investigation of the Factors Affecting Inflation Perceptions: A Case Study on Business and Economics Undergraduate Students Abstract: The aim of this study is to investigate the factors behind the ," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 28(45).
    13. Katharina Allinger & Fabio Rumler, 2023. "Inflation Expectations in CESEE: The Role of Sentiment and Experiences (Katharina Allinger, Fabio Rumler)," Working Papers 247, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation perceptions; inflation expectations; socioeconomic characteristics; survey data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General

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