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Inflation Expectations in the EU: Results from Survey Data

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  • Nielsen, Hannah

Abstract

Inflation expectations are extracted from the Consumer Survey, which is conducted by the European Commission for the European Union. Using the probability method to quantify the qualitative answers different distribution functions and scaling parameters are assumed to cope with the properties of the data properly. The forecasting ability of respective series is assessed also compared to the balance statistic. Furthermore the time horizon of the survey participants while answering the questionnaire is analyzed, because the empirical results show that it might not coincide with the time horizon implied by the formulation of the question.

Suggested Citation

  • Nielsen, Hannah, 2003. "Inflation Expectations in the EU: Results from Survey Data," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2003,13, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb373:200313
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    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/22228/1/dpsfb200313.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Batchelor, R. A., 1981. "Aggregate expectations under the stable laws," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 199-210.
    2. Vining, Daniel R, Jr & Elwertowski, Thomas C, 1976. "The Relationship between Relative Prices and the General Price Level," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 699-708.
    3. Praetz, Peter D, 1972. "The Distribution of Share Price Changes," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(1), pages 49-55, January.
    4. Balcombe, Kelvin, 1996. "The Carlson-Parkin method applied to NZ price expectations using QSBO survey data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 51-57, April.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Konstantins Benkovskis & Daina Paula, 2007. "Inflation Expectations in Latvia: Consumer Survey Based Results," Working Papers 2007/01, Latvijas Banka.
    2. Snezana Eminidou & Marios Zachariadis & Elena Andreou, 2017. "Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy Surprises," 2017 Meeting Papers 919, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Paloviita, Maritta, 2005. "The role of expectations in euro area inflation dynamics," Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, number 2005_032, November.
    4. Mestre, Ricardo, 2007. "Are survey-based inflation expections in the euro area informative?," Working Paper Series 721, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation expectations; survey data; quantification methods;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • C42 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Survey Methods
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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