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An Analysis of the Distribution of Extreme Share Returns in the UK from 1975 to 2000

Author

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  • G. D. Gettinby
  • C. D. Sinclair
  • D. M. Power
  • R. A. Brown

Abstract

This paper seeks to characterise the distribution of extreme returns for a UK share index over the years 1975 to 2000. In particular, the suitability of the following distributions is investigated: Gumbel, Frechet, Weibull, Generalised Extreme Value, Generalised Pareto, Log‐Normal and Generalised Logistic. Daily returns for the FT All Share index were obtained from Datastream, and the maxima and minima of these daily returns over a variety of selection intervals were calculated. Plots of summary statistics for the weekly maxima and minima on statistical distribution maps suggested that the best fitting distribution would be either the Generalised Extreme Value or the Generalised Logistic. The results from fitting each of these two distributions to extremes of a series of UK share returns support the conclusion that the Generalised Logistic distribution best fits the UK data for extremes over the period of the study. The Generalised Logistic distribution has fatter tails than either the log‐normal or the Generalised Extreme Value distribution, hence this finding is of importance to investors who are concerned with assessing the risk of a portfolio.

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  • G. D. Gettinby & C. D. Sinclair & D. M. Power & R. A. Brown, 2004. "An Analysis of the Distribution of Extreme Share Returns in the UK from 1975 to 2000," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5‐6), pages 607-646, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jbfnac:v:31:y:2004:i:5-6:p:607-646
    DOI: 10.1111/j.0306-686X.2004.00551.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. David J. Collison & George Cobb & David M. Power & Lorna A. Stevenson, 2008. "The financial performance of the FTSE4Good indices," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(1), pages 14-28, January.
    4. Tolikas, Konstantinos & Gettinby, Gareth D., 2009. "Modelling the distribution of the extreme share returns in Singapore," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 254-263, March.
    5. Konstantinos Tolikas & Athanasios Koulakiotis & Richard A. Brown, 2007. "Extreme Risk and Value-at-Risk in the German Stock Market," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 373-395.
    6. Bernardi, Mauro & Maruotti, Antonello & Petrella, Lea, 2017. "Multiple risk measures for multivariate dynamic heavy–tailed models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-32.
    7. Francesco PAOLONE, 2014. "Cost Structure Complexity And Stock Prices Volatility: An Analysis Of Possible Relationship Among Italian Listed Companies In The Period Of Crisis," Romanian Journal of Economics, Institute of National Economy, vol. 38(1(47)), pages 107-133, June.

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