IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hep/macppr/200903.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Prospect Theory and Inflation Perceptions - An Empirical Assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Lena Vogel

    (Department for Economics and Politics, University of Hamburg)

  • Jan-Oliver Menz

    (Department for Economics and Politics, University of Hamburg)

  • Ulrich Fritsche

    (Department for Economics and Politics, University of Hamburg)

Abstract

Building on the hypotheses of loss aversion with respect to price increases and availability of frequently bought goods, Brachinger (2006,2008) constructs an alternative index of perceived inflation (IPI), which can reproduce the jump in the measure for perceived inflation after the Euro introduction in Germany that was not observable in standard HICP inflation. We test the hypotheses of Prospect Theory with regard to households’ inflation perceptions underlying Brachinger’s IPI in a panel estimation for 12 European countries. There is evidence that perceptions react more strongly to ‘losses’ in inflation than to ‘gains’ before the Euro cash changeover, but not afterwards. Moreover, we find empirical support for the availability hypothesis, stating that frequently bought goods have a stronger influence on inflation perceptions than the overall price index.

Suggested Citation

  • Lena Vogel & Jan-Oliver Menz & Ulrich Fritsche, 2009. "Prospect Theory and Inflation Perceptions - An Empirical Assessment," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 200903, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
  • Handle: RePEc:hep:macppr:200903
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.wiso.uni-hamburg.de/repec/hepdoc/macppr_3_2009.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2009
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Author-Name: Alan S. Blinder & Alan B. Krueger, 2004. "What Does the Public Know about Economic Policy, and How Does It Know It?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 35(1), pages 327-397.
    2. Sarah M. Lein & Thomas Maag, 2011. "The Formation Of Inflation Perceptions: Some Empirical Facts For European Countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 58(2), pages 155-188, May.
    3. Paolo del Giovane & Silvia Fabiani & Roberto Sabbatini, 2009. "What's Behind "Inflation Perceptions"? A Survey-Based Analysis of Italian Consumers," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 68(1), pages 25-52, April.
    4. Hansen, Bruce E. & Seo, Byeongseon, 2002. "Testing for two-regime threshold cointegration in vector error-correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 293-318, October.
    5. Thomas A. Eife & W. Timothy Coombs, 2006. "Coping with People’s Inflation Perceptions During a Currency Changeover," Working Papers 0435, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2006.
    6. Jonung, Lars & Laidler, David E, 1988. "Are Perceptions of Inflation Rational? Some Evidence for Sweden," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 1080-1087, December.
    7. Julio J. Rotemberg, 2008. "Behavioral Aspects of Price Setting, and Their Policy Implications," NBER Working Papers 13754, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
    9. Fehr, Ernst & Tyran, Jean-Robert, 2007. "Money illusion and coordination failure," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 246-268, February.
    10. Marco Malgarini, 2009. "Quantitative Inflation Perceptions and Expectations of Italian Consumers," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 68(1), pages 53-80, April.
    11. Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 597-625, June.
    12. Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 263-291, March.
    13. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    14. Lars Jonung & Cristina Conflitti, 2008. "Is the euro advantageous? Does it foster European feelings? Europeans on the euro after five years," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 313, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    15. Brachinger, Hans Wolfgang, 2008. "A new index of perceived inflation: Assumptions, method, and application to Germany," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 433-457, August.
    16. van Dijk, Dick & Franses, Philip Hans & Paap, Richard, 2002. "A nonlinear long memory model, with an application to US unemployment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 135-165, October.
    17. Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman, 1991. "Loss Aversion in Riskless Choice: A Reference-Dependent Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(4), pages 1039-1061.
    18. Johannes Hoffmann & Hans-Albert Leifer & Andreas Lorenz, 2006. "Index of Perceived Inflation or EU Consumer Surveys?," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 41(3), pages 142-150, May.
    19. Gutierrez, Luciano, 2003. "On the power of panel cointegration tests: a Monte Carlo comparison," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 105-111, July.
    20. Vincenzo Cestari & Paolo Del Giovane & Clelia Rossi-Arnaud, 2007. "Memory for prices and the euro cash changeover: An analysis for cinema prices in Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 619, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    21. Lamla, Michael J. & Lein, Sarah M., 2014. "The role of media for consumers’ inflation expectation formation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 62-77.
    22. Batchelor, R. A., 1986. "The psychophysics of inflation," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 269-290, September.
    23. Bruce G. S. Hardie & Eric J. Johnson & Peter S. Fader, 1993. "Modeling Loss Aversion and Reference Dependence Effects on Brand Choice," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 12(4), pages 378-394.
    24. Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
    25. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    26. Peter Pedroni, 2001. "Purchasing Power Parity Tests In Cointegrated Panels," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 727-731, November.
    27. Helmut Jungermann & Hans Brachinger & Julia Belting & Katarzyna Grinberg & Elisabeth Zacharias, 2007. "The Euro Changeover and the Factors Influencing Perceived Inflation," Journal of Consumer Policy, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 405-419, December.
    28. Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Michael F. Bryan & Simon M. Potter & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 2008. "Rethinking the measurement of household inflation expectations: preliminary findings," Staff Reports 359, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    29. Jonung, Lars, 1981. "Perceived and Expected Rates of Inflation in Sweden," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(5), pages 961-968, December.
    30. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    31. Eife, Thomas, 2006. "Currency Changeovers as Natural Experiments," Munich Dissertations in Economics 5839, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    32. Chris Starmer, 2000. "Developments in Non-expected Utility Theory: The Hunt for a Descriptive Theory of Choice under Risk," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(2), pages 332-382, June.
    33. Niklas Karlsson & George Loewenstein & Duane Seppi, 2009. "The ostrich effect: Selective attention to information," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 95-115, April.
    34. Brachinger, Hans Wolfgang, 2006. "Euro or “Teuro”?: The Euro-induced Perceived Inflation in Germany," DQE Working Papers 5, Department of Quantitative Economics, University of Freiburg/Fribourg Switzerland.
    35. Camerer, Colin F., 1998. "Prospect Theory in the Wild: Evidence From the Field," Working Papers 1037, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
    36. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-652, Special I.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lena Dräger, 2015. "Inflation perceptions and expectations in Sweden – Are media reports the missing link?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(5), pages 681-700, October.
    2. Michael J. Lamla & Sarah Lein, 2010. "The Euro Cash Changeover, Inflation Perceptions and the Media," KOF Working papers 10-254, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    3. Lunn, Pete & Duffy, David, 2010. "The Euro Through the Looking-Glass: Perceived Inflation Following the 2002 Currency Changeover," Papers WP338, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lena Dr䧥r & Jan-Oliver Menz & Ulrich Fritsche, 2014. "Perceived inflation under loss aversion," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(3), pages 282-293, January.
    2. Roberto Basile & Mauro Costantini & Sergio Destefanis, 2005. "Unit root and cointegration tests for cross-sectionally correlated panels. Estimating regional production functions," CELPE Discussion Papers 94, CELPE - Centre of Labour Economics and Economic Policy, University of Salerno, Italy.
    3. Ranyard, Rob & Missier, Fabio Del & Bonini, Nicolao & Duxbury, Darren & Summers, Barbara, 2008. "Perceptions and expectations of price changes and inflation: A review and conceptual framework," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 378-400, August.
    4. Herzer, Dierk, 2013. "Cross-Country Heterogeneity and the Trade-Income Relationship," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 194-211.
    5. Eberhardt, Markus & Teal, Francis, 2008. "Modeling technology and technological change in manufacturing: how do countries differ?," MPRA Paper 10690, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Daniel, Betty C. & Shiamptanis, Christos, 2013. "Pushing the limit? Fiscal policy in the European Monetary Union," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 2307-2321.
    7. Joëts, Marc & Mignon, Valérie, 2012. "On the link between forward energy prices: A nonlinear panel cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1170-1175.
    8. Acikgoz, Senay & Ben Ali, Mohamed Sami, 2019. "Where does economic growth in the Middle Eastern and North African countries come from?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 172-183.
    9. Matthias Gubler & Christoph Sax, 2019. "The Balassa-Samuelson effect reversed: new evidence from OECD countries," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 155(1), pages 1-21, December.
    10. Trofimov, Ivan D., 2020. "Public capital and productive economy profits: evidence from OECD economies," MPRA Paper 106848, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Juan Carlos Aquino & N. R. Ramírez-Rondán, 2020. "Estimating factor shares from nonstationary panel data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(5), pages 2353-2380, May.
    12. Wenjing Zhang & Hengzhou Xu, 2017. "Exploring the causal relationship between carbon emissions and land urbanization quality in China using a panel data analysis," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 1445-1462, August.
    13. Alessio Ciarlone, 2019. "The relationship between financial development and growth: the case of emerging Europe," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 521, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    14. Fang, Zheng & Chang, Youngho, 2016. "Energy, human capital and economic growth in Asia Pacific countries — Evidence from a panel cointegration and causality analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 177-184.
    15. Alexandra Tsiotras & Antonio Estache, 2014. "In the short run, energy efficiency concerns and trade protection hurt each other and growth, but in the long run, not necessarily so: 1980-2010 Latin American Evidence," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2014-38, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    16. Lee Chien-Chiang, 2011. "Does Insurance Matter for Growth: Empirical Evidence from OECD Countries," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-28, June.
    17. Qu, Weihua & Qu, Guohua & Zhang, Xindong & Robert, Dixon, 2021. "The impact of public participation in environmental behavior on haze pollution and public health in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 319-335.
    18. Karikallio, Hanna, 2015. "Cross-commodity Price Transmission and Integration of the EU Livestock Market of Pork and Beef: Panel Time-series Approach," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211832, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    19. BADALYAN, Gohar & HERZFELD, Thomas & RAJCANIOVA, Miroslava, 2014. "Transport Infrastructure And Economic Growth: Panel Data Approach For Armenia, Georgia And Turkey," Review of Agricultural and Applied Economics (RAAE), Faculty of Economics and Management, Slovak Agricultural University in Nitra, vol. 17(2), pages 1-10, October.
    20. Ronald MacDonald & Flávio Vieira, "undated". "A panel data investigation of real exchange rate misalignment and growth," Working Papers 2010_13, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation Perceptions; Prospect Theory; Dynamic Panel;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hep:macppr:200903. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dwuhhde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ulrich Fritsche The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Ulrich Fritsche to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dwuhhde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.