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Assessing the Gap between Observed and Perceived Inflation in the Euro Area : Is the Credibility of the HICP at Stake ?

Author

Listed:
  • Luc Aucremanne

    () (National Bank of Belgium, Research Department)

  • Marianne Collin

    () (National Bank of Belgium, Research Department)

  • Thomas Stragier

    () (National Bank of Belgium, Research Department)

Abstract

We find strong econometric support for a break in the relationship between perceived and HICP inflation in the euro area, triggered by the introduction of euro notes and coins in January 2002. The break is fairly homogeneous across individuals with different socio-economic characteristics. We found no support for the thesis according to which perceptions are systematically formed by frequently purchased products. A similar break is found when national CPIs instead of HICPs are used as benchmarks. The role of the non-inclusion of owner-occupied housing in the HICP was negligible. Therefore the credibility of the HICP per se is not at stake.

Suggested Citation

  • Luc Aucremanne & Marianne Collin & Thomas Stragier, 2007. "Assessing the Gap between Observed and Perceived Inflation in the Euro Area : Is the Credibility of the HICP at Stake ?," Working Paper Research 112, National Bank of Belgium.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbb:reswpp:200704-24
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    File URL: https://www.nbb.be/doc/oc/repec/reswpp/wp112en.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. I. De Greef & C. Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2009. "The National Bank of Belgium, Research Department’s new business survey indicator," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue ii, pages 31-51, June.
    2. Thomas A. Eife & W. Timothy Coombs, 2006. "Coping with People’s Inflation Perceptions During a Currency Changeover," Working Papers 0435, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2006.
    3. repec:spr:empeco:v:54:y:2018:i:4:d:10.1007_s00181-017-1268-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Stefaan Ide & Jef Boeckx & David Cornille, 2009. "Deflation, a demon from the distant past or a real danger now ?," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue iii, pages 7-31, September.
    5. D. Cornille & T. Stragier, 2007. "The euro, five years later : what has happened to prices ?," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue ii, pages 7-27, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation; perceived inflation; panel unit roots tests;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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