IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Quantitative Inflation Perceptions and Expectations of Italian Consumers


  • Marco Malgarini

    () (Istituto di Studi ed Analisi Economica)


Since February 2003 ISAE collects quantitative inflation opinions, within its monthly survey on Italian consumers. Data confirms the severe overestimation of inflation already emerging from a companion study on Italian consumers (Del Giovane, Fabiani and Sabbatini, 2009); moreover, quantitative replies are in line with more traditional qualitative evaluations derived from the same survey, indicating that overestimation is not a random outcome resulting from casual answers. A first explanation calls for inadequate knowledge of inflation statistics: however, scarce information does not explain per se overestimation. Indeed, overestimation varies across personal characteristics and it is strongly correlated with assessments on economic conditions, those being more optimistic generally showing lower inflation opinions. It is possible that with a scarce statistical knowledge the consumers attribute to high inflation an “economic distress” mainly determined by slow growth of disposable income and psychological factors linked to socio-economic circumstances.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Malgarini, 2009. "Quantitative Inflation Perceptions and Expectations of Italian Consumers," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 68(1), pages 53-80, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:gde:journl:gde_v68_n1_p53-80

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. A. Gelman & Y. Goegebeur & F. Tuerlinckx & I. Van Mechelen, 2000. "Diagnostic checks for discrete data regression models using posterior predictive simulations," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 49(2), pages 247-268.
    2. Pedro Carneiro & James J. Heckman, 2002. "The Evidence on Credit Constraints in Post--secondary Schooling," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(482), pages 705-734, October.
    3. G. Boero & A. Mcknight & R. Naylor & J. Smith, 2001. "Graduates and graduate labour markets in the UK and Italy," Working Paper CRENoS 200111, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    4. John Geweke & William McCausland, 2001. "Bayesian Specification Analysis in Econometrics," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1181-1186.
    5. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2005:i:35:p:1-6 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Luigi Guiso & Paola Sapienza & Luigi Zingales, 2004. "Does Local Financial Development Matter?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(3), pages 929-969.
    7. Gelman A. & Pasarica C. & Dodhia R., 2002. "Lets Practice What We Preach: Turning Tables into Graphs," The American Statistician, American Statistical Association, vol. 56, pages 121-130, May.
    8. Claudio Lupi, 2005. "Are credit constraints in Italy really more binding in the South?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(35), pages 1-6.
    9. Siegfried, John & Getz, Malcolm, 2006. "Where do the children of professors attend college?," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 201-210, April.
    10. Brunello, Giorgio & Cappellari, Lorenzo, 2008. "The labour market effects of Alma Mater: Evidence from Italy," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 564-574, October.
    11. Shea, John, 2000. "Does parents' money matter?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 155-184, August.
    12. David J. Spiegelhalter & Nicola G. Best & Bradley P. Carlin & Angelika van der Linde, 2002. "Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(4), pages 583-639.
    13. Carla Sá & Raymond Florax & Piet Rietveld, 2006. "Does Accessibility to Higher Education Matter? Choice Behaviour of High School Graduates in the Netherlands," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 155-174.
    14. Edward Baryla & Douglas Dotterweich, 2001. "Student Migration: Do Significant Factors Vary by Region?," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 269-280.
    15. Douglas Dotterweich & Edward Baryla, 2005. "Non-resident Tuition and Enrollment in Higher Education: Implications for Tuition Pricing," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 375-385.
    16. L. Randall Wray & Stephanie Bell, 2004. "Introduction," Chapters,in: Credit and State Theories of Money, chapter 1 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    17. Daniele Checchi, 2003. "The Italian educational system: family background and social stratification," Departmental Working Papers 2003-01, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    18. Frenette, Marc, 2007. "Do Universities Benefit Local Youth? Evidence from University and College Participation, and Graduate Earnings Following the Creation of a New University," Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series 2006283e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch.
    19. Philippe Robert-Demontrond & R. Ringoot, 2004. "Introduction," Post-Print halshs-00081823, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Easaw, Joshy & Golinelli, Roberto & Malgarini, Marco, 2013. "What determines households inflation expectations? Theory and evidence from a household survey," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-13.
    2. Paolo Del Giovane & Silvia Fabiani & Roberto Sabbatini, 2008. "What�s behind �inflation perceptions�? A survey-based analysis of Italian consumers," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 655, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Ehrmann, M. & Pfajfar, D. & Santoro, E., 2014. "Consumer Attitudes and the Epidemiology of Inflation Expectations," Discussion Paper 2014-029, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    4. Michael Ehrmann & Damjan Pfajfar & Emiliano Santoro, 2017. "Consumers' Attitudes and Their Inflation Expectations," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(1), pages 225-259, February.
    5. Lena Vogel & Jan-Oliver Menz & Ulrich Fritsche, 2009. "Prospect Theory and Inflation Perceptions - An Empirical Assessment," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 200903, Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik.
    6. Ueno, Yuko, 2014. "Updating Behavior of Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Japanese Household Panel Data," CIS Discussion paper series 617, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    7. Duffy, David & Lunn, Peter D., 2009. "The Misperception of Inflation by Irish Consumers," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 40(2), pages 139-163.
    8. J. Easaw & R. Golinelli & M. Malgarini, 2012. "Do Households Anchor their Inflation Expectations? Theory and Evidence from a Household Survey," Working Papers wp842, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    9. Michael J. Lamla & Sarah Lein, 2010. "The Euro Cash Changeover, Inflation Perceptions and the Media," KOF Working papers 10-254, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    10. Lena Vogel, 2008. "The Relationship between the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve and the NAIRU over Time," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 200803, Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik.
    11. Lena Dräger & Jan-Oliver Menz & Ulrich Fritsche, 2014. "Perceived inflation under loss aversion," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(3), pages 282-293, January.
    12. José Antonio Murillo Garza & Paula Sánchez Romeu, 2012. "Testing the Predictive Power of Mexican Consumers' Inflation Expectations," Working Papers 2012-13, Banco de México.

    More about this item


    inflation expectations; survey data;

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gde:journl:gde_v68_n1_p53-80. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Erika Somma). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.