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Quantitative Inflation Perceptions and Expectations of Italian Consumers

Author

Listed:
  • Marco Malgarini

    (Istituto di Studi ed Analisi Economica)

Abstract

Since February 2003 ISAE collects quantitative inflation opinions, within its monthly survey on Italian consumers. Data confirms the severe overestimation of inflation already emerging from a companion study on Italian consumers (Del Giovane, Fabiani and Sabbatini, 2009); moreover, quantitative replies are in line with more traditional qualitative evaluations derived from the same survey, indicating that overestimation is not a random outcome resulting from casual answers. A first explanation calls for inadequate knowledge of inflation statistics: however, scarce information does not explain per se overestimation. Indeed, overestimation varies across personal characteristics and it is strongly correlated with assessments on economic conditions, those being more optimistic generally showing lower inflation opinions. It is possible that with a scarce statistical knowledge the consumers attribute to high inflation an “economic distress” mainly determined by slow growth of disposable income and psychological factors linked to socio-economic circumstances.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Malgarini, 2009. "Quantitative Inflation Perceptions and Expectations of Italian Consumers," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 68(1), pages 53-80, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gde:journl:gde_v68_n1_p53-80
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Easaw, Joshy & Golinelli, Roberto & Malgarini, Marco, 2013. "What determines households inflation expectations? Theory and evidence from a household survey," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-13.
    2. Paolo Del Giovane & Silvia Fabiani & Roberto Sabbatini, 2008. "What�s behind �inflation perceptions�? A survey-based analysis of Italian consumers," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 655, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Ehrmann, M. & Pfajfar, D. & Santoro, E., 2014. "Consumer Attitudes and the Epidemiology of Inflation Expectations," Discussion Paper 2014-029, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    4. Michael Ehrmann & Damjan Pfajfar & Emiliano Santoro, 2017. "Consumers' Attitudes and Their Inflation Expectations," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(1), pages 225-259, February.
    5. Lena Vogel & Jan-Oliver Menz & Ulrich Fritsche, 2009. "Prospect Theory and Inflation Perceptions - An Empirical Assessment," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 200903, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    6. Ueno, Yuko, 2014. "Updating Behavior of Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Japanese Household Panel Data," CIS Discussion paper series 617, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    7. Duffy, David & Lunn, Peter D., 2009. "The Misperception of Inflation by Irish Consumers," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 40(2), pages 139-163.
    8. Carlos Medel, 2021. "Searching for the Best Inflation Forecasters within a Consumer Perceptions Survey: Microdata Evidence from Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 899, Central Bank of Chile.
    9. J. Easaw & R. Golinelli & M. Malgarini, 2012. "Do Households Anchor their Inflation Expectations? Theory and Evidence from a Household Survey," Working Papers wp842, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    10. Michael J. Lamla & Sarah Lein, 2010. "The Euro Cash Changeover, Inflation Perceptions and the Media," KOF Working papers 10-254, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    11. Antonio Filippin & Luca Nunziata, 2019. "Monetary effects of inequality: lessons from the euro experiment," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 17(2), pages 99-124, June.
    12. Ashima Goyal & Prashant Mehul Parab, 2019. "Modeling Consumers' Confidence and Inflation Expectations," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(3), pages 1817-1832.
    13. Lena Vogel, 2008. "The Relationship between the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve and the NAIRU over Time," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 200803, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    14. Lena Dr䧥r & Jan-Oliver Menz & Ulrich Fritsche, 2014. "Perceived inflation under loss aversion," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(3), pages 282-293, January.
    15. Murillo Garza José Antonio & Sánchez-Romeu Paula, 2012. "Testing the Predictive Power of Mexican Consumers' Inflation Expectations," Working Papers 2012-13, Banco de México.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation expectations; survey data;

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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