IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Testing the Predictive Power of Mexican Consumers' Inflation Expectations

  • José Antonio Murillo Garza
  • Paula Sánchez Romeu
Registered author(s):

    This paper introduces an indicator of consumers' inflation expectations based on data from the National Consumer Confidence Survey of Mexico (ENCO, in Spanish), and tests its predictive power over CPI inflation and other measures of inflation that correspond to smaller baskets of consumer goods, for periods that range from 1 to 12 months. Our findings show that between January 2003 and September 2010, the predictive capability of the indicator over the different measures of inflation used was weak. Due to a modification in the survey questionnaire in October 2010, as of that date we observe a significant change in the responses and, thus, in the behavior of the indicator of consumers' inflation expectations. For this reason, from October 2010 on the main use of this indicator is to be a reference of consumers' confidence in price stability.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by Banco de México in its series Working Papers with number 2012-13.

    in new window

    Date of creation: Dec 2012
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2012-13
    Contact details of provider: Web page:

    More information through EDIRC

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Pesaran, M.H. & Timmermann, A., 1990. "A Simple, Non-Parametric Test Of Predictive Performance," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9021, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. Wilbert van der Klaauw & Wandi Bruine de Bruin & Giorgio Topa & Basit Zafar & Olivier Armantier, 2012. "Inflation Expectations and Behavior: Do Survey Respondents Act on their Beliefs?," 2012 Meeting Papers 121, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Christopher D. Carroll, 2003. "Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 118(1), pages 269-298.
    4. Piotr Białowolski, 2011. "Forecasting inflation with consumer survey data – application of multi-group confirmatory factor analysis to elimination of the general sentiment factor," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 100, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
    5. Richard Curtin, 2007. "Consumer Sentiment Surveys: Worldwide Review and Assessment," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing,Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2007(1), pages 7-42.
    6. Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Simon M. Potter & Robert W. Rich & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 2010. "Improving survey measures of household inflation expectations," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 16(Aug/Sep).
    7. Lloyd B. Thomas, 1999. "Survey Measures of Expected U.S. Inflation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 125-144, Fall.
    8. Barnett, Alina & Macallan, Clare & Pezzini, Silvia, 2010. "Public attitudes to inflation and monetary policy," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 50(2), pages 115-123.
    9. Lyziak, Tomasz, 2003. "Consumer inflation expectations in Poland," Working Paper Series 0287, European Central Bank.
    10. Michela Nardo, 2003. "The Quantification of Qualitative Survey Data : A Critical Assessment," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(5), pages 645-668, December.
    11. Mestre, Ricardo, 2007. "Are survey-based inflation expections in the euro area informative?," Working Paper Series 0721, European Central Bank.
    12. J. Easaw & R. Golinelli & M. Malgarini, 2012. "Do Households Anchor their Inflation Expectations? Theory and Evidence from a Household Survey," Working Papers wp842, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    13. Greer, Mark, 2003. "Directional accuracy tests of long-term interest rate forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 291-298.
    14. Badarinza, Cristian & Buchmann, Marco, 2009. "Inflation perceptions and expectations in the euro area: the role of news," Working Paper Series 1088, European Central Bank.
    15. Marco Malgarini, 2009. "Quantitative Inflation Perceptions and Expectations of Italian Consumers," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 68(1), pages 53-80, April.
    16. Batchelor, R A, 1986. "Quantitative v. Qualitative Measures of Inflation Expectations," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(2), pages 99-120, May.
    17. Forsells, Magnus & Kenny, Geoff, 2002. "The rationality of consumers' inflation expectations: survey-based evidence for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0163, European Central Bank.
    18. Rose Cunningham & Brigitte Desroches & Eric Santor, 2010. "Inflation Expectations and the Conduct of Monetary Policy: A Review of Recent Evidence and Experience," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2010(Spring), pages 13-25.
    19. Corder, Matthew & Eckloff, Daniel, 2011. "International evidence on inflation expectations during Sustained Off-Target Inflation episodes," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 51(2), pages 111-115.
    20. Gramlich, Edward M, 1983. "Models of Inflation Expectations Formation: A Comparison of Household and Economist Forecasts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 15(2), pages 155-73, May.
    21. Jan Marc Berk, 1999. "Measuring inflation expectations: a survey data approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(11), pages 1467-1480.
    22. Bryan, Michael F & Gavin, William T, 1986. "Models of Inflation Expectations Formation: A Comparison of Household and Economist Forecasts: A Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(4), pages 539-44, November.
    23. Batchelor, Roy A & Dua, Pami, 1989. "Household versus Economist Forecasts of Inflation: A Reassessment: A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(2), pages 252-57, May.
    24. Wayne Huang & Bharat Trehan, 2008. "Unanchored expectations? Interpreting the evidence from inflation surveys," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jul25.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2012-13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dirección de Sistemas)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.