IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/boe/qbullt/0048.html

International evidence on inflation expectations during Sustained Off-Target Inflation episodes

Author

Listed:
  • Matthew Corder

    (Bank of England)

  • Daniel Eckloff

    (Bank of England)

Abstract

The high level of UK inflation in recent years raises the possibility that inflation expectations may drift upwards, making the period of above-target inflation last for longer. This article presents some evidence on inflation expectations during Sustained Off-Target Inflation (SOTI) episodes in other inflation-targeting countries and outlines some of the key trends. The evidence suggests that short and medium-term inflation expectations have tended to drift in the direction of the deviation of inflation from target. But generally the movements in inflation expectations were more gradual than movements in inflation itself and expectations returned to their previous level once inflation returned to target.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthew Corder & Daniel Eckloff, 2011. "International evidence on inflation expectations during Sustained Off-Target Inflation episodes," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 51(2), pages 111-115.
    • Handle: RePEc:boe:qbullt:0048
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/quarterly-bulletin/2011/international-evidence-on-inflation-expectations-during-sustained-off-target-inflation-episodes.pdf?la=en&hash=851768AA39C109A455E3C1EDBD55D572498038E3
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Clare Macallan & Tim Taylor & Tom O'Grady, 2011. "Assessing the risk to inflation from inflation expectations," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 51(2), pages 100-110.
    2. Gill Hammond, 2012. "State of the art of inflation targeting," Handbooks, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, edition 4, number 29, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. IBADULA Birol & VLAD Cristina & IONITA Claudiu, 2017. "Direct Taxation Trends In European Union And Romania, The Influence Of Direct Taxation On Budget Deficit," Revista Economica, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 69(4), pages 118-128, November.
    2. Dániel Felcser, 2013. "How should the central bank react to the VAT increase?," MNB Bulletin (discontinued), Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 8(1), pages 35-41, January.
    3. Pang, Ke & Shiamptanis, Christos, 2024. "Is the Bank of Canada concerned about inflation or the state of the economy?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    4. Neuenkirch, Matthias & Tillmann, Peter, 2014. "Inflation targeting, credibility, and non-linear Taylor rules," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 30-45.
    5. Murillo Garza José Antonio & Sánchez-Romeu Paula, 2012. "Testing the Predictive Power of Mexican Consumers' Inflation Expectations," Working Papers 2012-13, Banco de México.
    6. Clare Macallan & Tim Taylor & Tom O'Grady, 2011. "Assessing the risk to inflation from inflation expectations," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 51(2), pages 100-110.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ordoñez-Callamand, Daniel & Hernandez-Leal, Juan D. & Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio, 2018. "When multiple objectives meet multiple instruments: Identifying simultaneous monetary shocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 78-101.
    2. Fernando Ferrari Filho, Marcelo Milan, 2018. "Excess Real Interest Rates and the Inflation Targeting Regime in Brazil: Monetary Policy Ineffectiveness and Rentiers¡¯ Interests," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 5(6), pages 84-100, November.
    3. Abiodun Adegboye & Olawale Daniel Akinyele, 2022. "Assessing the determinants of government spending efficiency in Africa," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 1-17, December.
    4. Christoph S. Weber, 2018. "Central bank transparency and inflation (volatility) – new evidence," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 21-67, January.
    5. Monica Jain & Christopher S. Sutherland, 2020. "How Do Central Bank Projections and Forward Guidance Influence Private-Sector Forecasts?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(5), pages 179-218, October.
    6. Julian A. Parra-Polania & Luisa F. Acu�a-Roa, 2013. "Price-Level Targeting: an omelette that requires breaking some Inflation-Targeting eggs?," Borradores de Economia 10984, Banco de la Republica.
    7. Dinabandhu Sethi & Debashis Acharya, 2019. "Credibility of inflation targeting: some recent Asian evidence," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 203-219, August.
    8. Ardakani Omid M. & Kishor N. Kundan, 2018. "Examining the success of the central banks in inflation targeting countries: the dynamics of the inflation gap and institutional characteristics," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(1), pages 1-19, February.
    9. C. Emre Alper & R. Armando Morales & Fan Yang, 2017. "Monetary Policy Implementation and Volatility Transmission Along the Yield Curve: The Case of Kenya," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 85(3), pages 455-478, September.
    10. Martin Seneca, 2010. "A DSGE model for Iceland," Economics wp50, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    11. Antonia López-Villavicencio & Marc Pourroy, 2017. "IT Countries: A Breed Apart? the case of Exchange Rate Pass-Through," Working Papers 1728, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Etienne (GATE Lyon St-Etienne), Université de Lyon.
    12. Badinger, Harald & Reuter, Wolf Heinrich, 2017. "The case for fiscal rules," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 334-343.
    13. Sebastian Gomez-Barrero & Julian A. Parra-Polania, 2014. "Central Bank Strategic Forecasting," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 32(4), pages 802-810, October.
    14. Gilles Dufrénot & William Ginn & Marc Pourroy, 2023. "ENSO Climate Patterns on Global Economic Conditions," AMSE Working Papers 2308, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    15. Skrove Falch, Nina & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2011. "The accuracy of a forecast targeting central bank," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 5, pages 1-36.
    16. Stojanovikj, Martin & Petrevski, Goran, 2024. "The choice of monetary regimes in emerging market economies: Inflation targeting versus its alternatives," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 237-260.
    17. Petreski, Marjan, 2013. "Inflation targeting at the crossroads: Evidence from post-communist economies during the crisis," MPRA Paper 47018, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Ogrokhina, Olena & Rodriguez, Cesar M., 2018. "The role of inflation targeting in international debt denomination in developing countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 116-129.
    19. Camille Cornand & Cheick Kader M’baye, 2018. "Band or point inflation targeting? An experimental approach," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 13(2), pages 283-309, July.
    20. Pongsak Luangaram & Yuthana Sethapramote & Chutiorn Tontivanichanon, 2015. "Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy in Thailand," PIER Discussion Papers 3, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:boe:qbullt:0048. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Publications Group (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/boegvuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.