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On the Credibility of Inflation-Targeting Regimes in Latin America

Author

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  • Andrew Powell
  • Rodrigo Mariscal
  • Pilar Tavella

Abstract

Inflation targeting has become popular in emerging economies. Eight countries in Latin America adopted this regime and were successful in bringing inflation down. How- ever, continuing success depends on the credibility of the target. We interpret credibility as how tightly inflation expectations are anchored and develop a methodology to test the response to shocks. Inflation targets gained credibility over time, but when inflation rises above target, credibility suffers. Moreover, at the end of the sample, there is evidence of de-anchoring.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Powell & Rodrigo Mariscal & Pilar Tavella, 2018. "On the Credibility of Inflation-Targeting Regimes in Latin America," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 1-24.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000425:016330
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    Cited by:

    1. Roberto Duncan & Enrique Martínez García & Patricia Toledo, 2022. "Just Do IT? An Assessment of Inflation Targeting in a Global Comparative Case Study," Globalization Institute Working Papers 418, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 16 Dec 2025.
    2. Marco A. Acosta, 2017. "Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in Mexico," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 95-132, January-J.
    3. Aguilar-Argaez Ana María & Cuadra Gabriel & Ramírez Claudia & Sámano Daniel, 2014. "Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in Light of Adverse Supply Shocks," Working Papers 2014-20, Banco de México.
    4. Ana María Aguilar Argaez & Gabriel Cuadra & Claudia Ramírez Bulos & Daniel Sámano Peñaloza, 2014. "Anchoring of Inflation Expectations after Adverse Supply Shocks," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 49-81, January-J.
    5. Bedri Kamil Onur Tas & Mustafa Cagri Peker, 2017. "Inflation Target Credibility: Do the Financial Markets Find the Targets Believable?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(6), pages 1125-1147, December.
    6. Rodrigo Mariscal & Alejandro M. Werner, 2018. "The Price and Welfare Effects of The Value-Added Tax: Evidence from Mexico," IMF Working Papers 2018/240, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Pérez, Fernando, 2015. "Comparing the Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks in Latin America: A Hierarchical Panel VAR," Working Papers 2015-015, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    8. Garcia, Juan Angel & Gimeno, Ricardo, 2024. "Navigating high inflation: A joint analysis of inflation dynamics and long-term inflation expectations in Latin America," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 5(4).
    9. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Igor da Silva Veiga, 2017. "The open economy trilemma in Latin America: A three-decade analysis," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 135-154, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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