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Consumer inflation expectations in Poland

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  • Łyziak, Tomasz

Abstract

Inflation expectations constitute a subject of particular contemporary interest to central banks, especially those pursuing a monetary policy based on a strategy of direct inflation targeting. Macroeconomic theory indicates that the transmission of monetary policy impulses and their impact on the real and nominal sectors of the economy bear a close relationship to properties of inflation expectations. Qualitative data on inflation expectations, as obtained from surveys, can be quantified with the use of probability or regression methods. This paper presents the results of two versions of the probability method, implemented in order to estimate numerical measures of Polish consumer inflation expectations, based on the monthly Ipsos-Demoskop survey. In addition, the unbiasedness and macroeconomic efficiency of Polish consumer inflation expectations are tested, as are the way in which these are formed. The pattern of responses to the survey question and quantified measures of Polish consumer inflation expectations are also compared with the respective findings for the euro area. JEL Classification: C42, D12, D84, E58

Suggested Citation

  • Łyziak, Tomasz, 2003. "Consumer inflation expectations in Poland," Working Paper Series 287, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2003287
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp287.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Balazs VARGA & Zsolt DARVAS, 2010. "Time-Varying Coefficient Methods to Measure Inflation Persistence," EcoMod2010 259600167, EcoMod.
    2. Tomasz Lyziak, 2010. "Measurement of perceived and expected inflation on the basis of consumer survey data," IFC Working Papers 5, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Baxa, Jaromír & Plašil, Miroslav & Vašíček, Bořek, 2015. "Changes in inflation dynamics under inflation targeting? Evidence from Central European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 116-130.
    4. Péter Gábriel, 2010. "Household inflation expectations and inflation dynamics," MNB Working Papers 2010/12, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    5. Jerzy Pruski & Piotr Szpunar, 2008. "The monetary transmission mechanism in Poland," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 427-437, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Kębłowski, Piotr & Welfe, Aleksander, 2012. "A risk-driven approach to exchange rate modelling," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1473-1482.
    7. Konstantins Benkovskis, 2008. "The Role of Inflation Expectations in the New EU Member States: Consumer Survey Based Results," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 58(07-08), pages 298-317, Oktober.
    8. Magdalena Szyszko, 2013. "The interdependences of central bank’s forecasts and inflation expectations of consumers," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 44(1), pages 33-66.
    9. Tura-Gawron, Karolina, 2019. "Consumers’ approach to the credibility of the inflation forecasts published by central banks: A new methodological solution," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    10. Hakan Kara & Hande Kucuk-Tuğer, 2010. "Inflation expectations in Turkey: learning to be rational," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(21), pages 2725-2742.
    11. Karolina TURA-GAWRON, 2018. "Inflation Forecast or Forecast(s) Targeting?," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 42-56, September.
    12. Jan Marc Berk & Gerbert Hebbink, 2006. "The anchoring of European inflation expectations," DNB Working Papers 116, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    13. Konstantins Benkovskis & Daina Paula, 2007. "Inflation Expectations in Latvia: Consumer Survey Based Results," Working Papers 2007/01, Latvijas Banka.
    14. Yasemin Barlas Ozer & Defne Mutluer, 2005. "Inflation Expectations in Turkey : Statistical Evidence from the Business Tendency Survey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 5(2), pages 73-97.
    15. Henry Sabrowski, 2008. "Inflation Expectation Formation of German Consumers: Rational or Adaptive?," Working Paper Series in Economics 100, University of Lüneburg, Institute of Economics.
    16. Murillo Garza José Antonio & Sánchez-Romeu Paula, 2012. "Testing the Predictive Power of Mexican Consumers' Inflation Expectations," Working Papers 2012-13, Banco de México.
    17. Jorge Canales-Kriljenko & Turgut Kisinbay & Rodolfo Maino & Eric Parrado, 2006. "Setting the Operational Framework for Producing Inflation Forecasts," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 362, Central Bank of Chile.
    18. Tomasz Lyziak, 2014. "Inflation expectations in Poland, 2001–2013. Measurement and macroeconomic testing," NBP Working Papers 178, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    19. Ewa Wrobel & Tomasz Lyziak & Jan Przystupa, 2008. "Monetary Policy Transmission in Poland: a Study of the Importance of Interest Rate and Credit Channels," SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 2008/1 edited by Morten Balling, May.
    20. Hakan Kara & Hande Kucuk Tuger, 2005. "Some Evidence on the Irrationality of Inflation Expectations in Turkey," Working Papers 0512, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    euro area; inflation; inflation expectation; Poland; surveys;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C42 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Survey Methods
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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