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Inflation Expectations in Turkey : Statistical Evidence from the Business Tendency Survey

Author

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  • Yasemin Barlas Ozer
  • Defne Mutluer

Abstract

In Turkey, the importance placed on public's expectations about future economic and financial conditions has risen in recent years within the upcoming fully-fledged policy of inflation targeting framework; in accordance, information on expectations of future inflation could be inferred from surveys of expectations. This paper examines the inflation expectations of firms in the manufacturing sector in Turkey, assessing the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's Business Tendency Survey data. The focus of this paper is a wide-ranging analysis of the characteristics of the inflation expectations of firms rather than their formation. The paper not only evaluates the performance of inflation expectations (whether they are in line with realizations and how they react to the shifts in the economy) but also handles the characteristics of their distribution. Besides, the paper attempts to see how expectations vary across sub-sectors and to analyze their relationship with other expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Yasemin Barlas Ozer & Defne Mutluer, 2005. "Inflation Expectations in Turkey : Statistical Evidence from the Business Tendency Survey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 5(2), pages 73-97.
    • Handle: RePEc:tcb:cebare:v:5:y:2005:i:2:p:73-97
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    File URL: http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Publications/Central+Bank+Review/2005/Volume+5-2/
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2004. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 209-270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Ece Oral & Dilara Ece & Turknur Hamsici, 2005. "Building Up a Real Sector Business Confidence Index for Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 5(1), pages 23-54.
    3. Ercan Uygur, 1989. "Inflation Expectations of the Turkish Manufacturing Firms," Discussion Papers 8904, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    4. Łyziak, Tomasz, 2003. "Consumer inflation expectations in Poland," Working Paper Series 287, European Central Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Hakan Kara & Defne Mutluer, 2008. "Expectations, Communication and Monetary Policy in Turkey," Working Papers 0801, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    2. Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Eda Gulsen & Hakan Kara, 2012. "Inflation Expectations and Central Bank Communication in Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 12(2), pages 1-10.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation Expectations; Survey Data Analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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