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Building Up a Real Sector Business Confidence Index for Turkey

  • Ece Oral
  • Dilara Ece
  • Turknur Hamsici

The two major aims of this study are, firstly, to receive valuable insight into the Business Tendency Survey of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey and, secondly, to construct a real sector confidence index by using the questions of the Business Tendency Survey. The most important motivation behind constructing a real sector confidence index is to provide an indicator of short-term business conditions for economic policy makers and business managers by examining business managers' views on general business conditions and their future anticipations. The real sector confidence index is constructed in accordance with statistical criteria and economic theory. Afterwards, the performance of the index in tracking the cyclical features of industrial production index is tested.

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File URL: https://www3.tcmb.gov.tr/cbr/index.php/cbreview/article/view/304/264
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Article provided by Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey in its journal Central Bank Review.

Volume (Year): 5 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 23-54

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Handle: RePEc:tcb:cebare:v:5:y:2005:i:1:p:23-54
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  1. Bodo, G. & Golinelli, R. & Parigi, G., 2000. "Forecasting Industrial Production in the Euro Area," Papers 370, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
  2. Ng, Yew-Kwang, 1992. "Business Confidence and Depression Prevention: A Mesoeconomic Perspective," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 365-71, May.
  3. Víctor Gómez & Agustín Maravall, 1998. "Seasonal Adjustment and Signal Extraction in Economic Time Series," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 9809, Banco de Espa�a.
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