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A risk-driven approach to exchange rate modelling

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  • Kębłowski, Piotr
  • Welfe, Aleksander

Abstract

The paper presents a new approach to exchange rate modelling that augments the CHEER model with a sovereign credit default risk as perceived by financial investors making their decisions. In the cointegrated VAR system with nine variables comprised of the short- and long-term interest rates in Poland and the euro area, inflation rates, CDS indices and the zloty/euro exchange rate, four long-run relationships were found. Two of them link term spreads with inflation rates, the third one describes the exchange rate and the fourth one explains the inflation rate in Poland. Transmission of shocks was analysed by common stochastic trends. The estimation results were used to calculate the zloty/euro equilibrium exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Kębłowski, Piotr & Welfe, Aleksander, 2012. "A risk-driven approach to exchange rate modelling," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1473-1482.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:29:y:2012:i:4:p:1473-1482 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2012.02.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    11. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Abdul Rashid, 2013. "Financial crisis and exchange rates in emerging economies: An empirical analysis using PPP-UIP-Framework," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center, vol. 9(4), pages 86-96, December.
    2. Jair N. Ojeda-Joya & Gloria Sarmiento, 2016. "Sovereign Risk and the Real Exchange Rate: A Non-Linear Approach," Borradores de Economia 970, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Robert Kelm, 2017. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle and Imperfect Knowledge: The Case of the Polish Zloty," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, CEJEME, vol. 9(1), pages 1-27, March.
    4. repec:sgh:gosnar:y:2017:i:4:p:5-38 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Piotr Karp, 2015. "Asymetryczny wpływ zmian kursu walutowego na gospodarkę Polski," Gospodarka Narodowa, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 6, pages 29-49.
    6. Piotr Kębłowski, 2011. "The Behaviour of Exchange Rates in the Central European Countries and Credit Default Risk Premiums," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, CEJEME, vol. 3(4), pages 221-236, December.
    7. Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Kocięcki, Andrzej & Rubaszek, Michał, 2015. "Bayesian forecasting of real exchange rates with a Dornbusch prior," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 53-60.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate modelling; Sovereign credit default risk; CDS spread; International parities; Equilibrium exchange rate;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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