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Does uncertainty predict cryptocurrency returns? A copula-based approach

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  • Ur Koumba
  • Calvin Mudzingiri
  • Jules Mba

Abstract

This study is confined in analysing how the economic policy uncertainty (EPU) effects affect exchange rates on cryptocurrency assets in times of financial turbulence characterized by low confidence in the financial stock markets, and tranquil periods where the financial stock markets behave smoothly. Our research employs the D-Vine pair-copula method on daily selected cryptocurrency (Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple) prices within the period of the 10 August 2016 to the 23 February 2018. Our findings document the presence of the dependence between the US EPU and cryptocurrencies and indicate a significant correlation with Ethereum which exhibits a much better return.

Suggested Citation

  • Ur Koumba & Calvin Mudzingiri & Jules Mba, 2020. "Does uncertainty predict cryptocurrency returns? A copula-based approach," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 67-88, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:macfem:v:13:y:2020:i:1:p:67-88
    DOI: 10.1080/17520843.2019.1650090
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    2. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Huseyin & Agan, Busra, 2022. "Effects of COVID-19 on cryptocurrency and emerging market connectedness: Empirical evidence from quantile, frequency, and lasso networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 604(C).
    3. Umar, Muhammad & Shahzad, Fakhar & Ullah, Irfan & Fanghua, Tong, 2023. "A comparative analysis of cryptocurrency returns and economic policy uncertainty pre- and post-Covid-19," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    4. Inzamam Ul Haq & Apichit Maneengam & Supat Chupradit & Wanich Suksatan & Chunhui Huo, 2021. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Cryptocurrency Market as a Risk Management Avenue: A Systematic Review," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-24, September.
    5. Ahmed, Walid M.A. & Al Mafrachi, Mustafa, 2021. "Do higher-order realized moments matter for cryptocurrency returns?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 483-499.
    6. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2022. "Robust drivers of Bitcoin price movements: An extreme bounds analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    7. Linn Arnell & Emma Engström & Gazi Salah Uddin & Md. Bokhtiar Hasan & Sang Hoon Kang, 2023. "Volatility spillovers, structural breaks and uncertainty in technology sector markets," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-31, December.
    8. Nikolaos A. Kyriazis, 2021. "The Nexus of Sophisticated Digital Assets with Economic Policy Uncertainty: A Survey of Empirical Findings and an Empirical Investigation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-25, May.

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