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Sentiment and Bitcoin Volatility

Author

Listed:
  • Jaroslav Bukovina

    () (Department of Finance, Faculty of Business and Economics, Mendel University in Brno)

  • Matus Marticek

    () (Faculty of Business and Economics, Mendel University in Brno)

Abstract

This paper augments the current research suggesting the less rational factors like attractiveness of Bitcoin and speculative investments to be influential for excessive volatility. In particular, it examines the sentiment as a driver of Bitcoin volatility. The paper contributes with economic rationale about a link between sentiment and Bitcoin. Further, the authors propose a unique decomposition of Bitcoin price to rational and less rational components. The paper tests this theoretical prediction with unique sentiment intraday data in the period of 12/12/2013 – 12/31/2015. The findings of the paper show the marginal presence of sentiment during the overall studied period. However, the explanato- ry power of sentiment significantly increases during the period of excessive volatility, especially dur- ing the bubble period at the end of the year 2013 and beginning of 2014. Moreover, the findings show that positive sentiment is more influential for Bitcoin excessive volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaroslav Bukovina & Matus Marticek, 2016. "Sentiment and Bitcoin Volatility," MENDELU Working Papers in Business and Economics 2016-58, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:men:wpaper:58_2016
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    File URL: http://ftp.mendelu.cz/RePEc/men/wpaper/58_2016.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kaplanski, Guy & Levy, Haim, 2010. "Sentiment and stock prices: The case of aviation disasters," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 174-201, February.
    2. David Yermack, 2013. "Is Bitcoin a Real Currency? An economic appraisal," NBER Working Papers 19747, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Branislav Saxa, 2014. "Forecasting Mortgages: Internet Search Data as a Proxy for Mortgage Credit Demand," Working Papers 2014/14, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    4. Lo, Stephanie & Wang, J. Christina, 2014. "Bitcoin as money?," Current Policy Perspectives 14-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    5. Pavel Ciaian & Miroslava Rajcaniova & d’Artis Kancs, 2016. "The digital agenda of virtual currencies: Can BitCoin become a global currency?," Information Systems and e-Business Management, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 883-919, November.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Alessandra Cretarola & Gianna Fig`a-Talamanca, 2017. "A confidence-based model for asset and derivative prices in the BitCoin market," Papers 1702.00215, arXiv.org.
    2. Alessandra Cretarola & Gianna Fig`a-Talamanca & Marco Patacca, 2017. "A sentiment-based model for the BitCoin: theory, estimation and option pricing," Papers 1709.08621, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bitcoin; volatility; sentiment; Bitcoin bubble;

    JEL classification:

    • E49 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Other

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