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The Bitcoin price formation: Beyond the fundamental sources

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  • Jamal Bouoiyour

    (CATT)

  • Refk Selmi

    (CATT)

Abstract

Much significant research has been done to investigate various facets of the link between Bitcoin price and its fundamental sources. This study goes beyond by looking into least to most influential factors-across the fundamental, macroeconomic, financial, speculative and technical determinants as well as the 2016 events-which drove the value of Bitcoin in times of economic and geopolitical chaos. We use a Bayesian quantile regression to inspect how the structure of dependence of Bitcoin price and its determinants varies across the entire conditional distribution of Bitcoin price movements. In doing so, three groups of determinants were derived. The use of Bitcoin in trade and the uncertainty surrounding China's deepening slowdown, Brexit and India's demonetization were found to be the most potential contributors of Bitcoin price when the market is improving. The intense anxiety over Donald Trump being the president of United States was shown to be a positive determinant pushing up the price of Bitcoin when the market is functioning around the normal mode. The velocity of bitcoins in circulation, the gold price, the Venezuelan currency demonetization and the hash rate were found to be the fundamentals influencing the Bitcoin price when the market is heading into decline.

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  • Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2017. "The Bitcoin price formation: Beyond the fundamental sources," Papers 1707.01284, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1707.01284
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    1. Bejaoui, Azza & Mgadmi, Nidhal & Moussa, Wajdi, 2022. "On the relationship between Bitcoin and other assets during the outbreak of coronavirus: Evidence from fractional cointegration analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    2. Hector F. Calvo-Pardo & Tullio Mancini & Jose Olmo, 2022. "Machine Learning the Carbon Footprint of Bitcoin Mining," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-30, February.
    3. Selmi, Refk & Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Bouoiyour, Jamal, 2018. "Is Bitcoin a hedge, a safe haven or a diversifier for oil price movements? A comparison with gold," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 787-801.
    4. Umar, Zaghum & Trabelsi, Nader & Alqahtani, Faisal, 2021. "Connectedness between cryptocurrency and technology sectors: International evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 910-922.
    5. Park, Sangjin & Jang, Kwahngsoo & Yang, Jae-Suk, 2021. "Information flow between bitcoin and other financial assets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 566(C).
    6. Duc Huynh, Toan Luu & Burggraf, Tobias & Wang, Mei, 2020. "Gold, platinum, and expected Bitcoin returns," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    7. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2017. "Ether: Bitcoin's competitor or ally?," Working Papers hal-01567277, HAL.
    8. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2020. "Coronavirus Spreads and Bitcoin's 2020 Rally: Is There a Link ?," Working Papers hal-02493309, HAL.
    9. Lyócsa, Štefan & Molnár, Peter & Plíhal, Tomáš & Širaňová, Mária, 2020. "Impact of macroeconomic news, regulation and hacking exchange markets on the volatility of bitcoin," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    10. Yuanyuan (Catherine) Chen, 2021. "Empirical analysis of bitcoin price," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 45(4), pages 692-715, October.
    11. Walid Bakry & Audil Rashid & Somar Al-Mohamad & Nasser El-Kanj, 2021. "Bitcoin and Portfolio Diversification: A Portfolio Optimization Approach," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-24, June.
    12. Chemkha, Rahma & BenSaïda, Ahmed & Ghorbel, Ahmed & Tayachi, Tahar, 2021. "Hedge and safe haven properties during COVID-19: Evidence from Bitcoin and gold," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 71-85.
    13. Nino Antulov-Fantulin & Dijana Tolic & Matija Piskorec & Zhang Ce & Irena Vodenska, 2018. "Inferring short-term volatility indicators from Bitcoin blockchain," Papers 1809.07856, arXiv.org.
    14. Julián A. Parra & Carlos Arango - Joaquín Bernal & José E. Gómez - Javier Gómez & Carlos León - Clara Machado & Daniel Osorio - Daniel Rojas & Nicolás Suárez - Eduardo Yanquen, 2019. "Criptoactivos: análisis y revisión de literatura," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, issue 92, pages 1-37, November.
    15. Khalid Khan & Jiluo Sun & Sinem Derindere Koseoglu & Ashfaq U. Rehman, 2021. "Revisiting Bitcoin Price Behavior Under Global Economic Uncertainty," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(3), pages 21582440211, August.
    16. Feng, Hao & Gao, Da & Duan, Kun & Urquhart, Andrew, 2023. "Does Bitcoin affect decomposed oil shocks differently? Evidence from a quantile-based framework," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    17. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2022. "Robust drivers of Bitcoin price movements: An extreme bounds analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    18. Burcu Kapar & Jose Olmo, 2021. "Analysis of Bitcoin prices using market and sentiment variables," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(1), pages 45-63, January.
    19. Juan Carlos Henao & Liliana López-Jiménez, 2021. "Disrupción tecnológica, transformación digital y sociedad. Tomo IV, Aires de revolución : nuevos desafíos tecnológicos a las instituciones económicas, financieras y organizacionales de nuestros tiempo," Books, Universidad Externado de Colombia, Facultad de Derecho, number 1283, October.
    20. Kubal, Jan & Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2022. "Exploring the relationship between Bitcoin price and network’s hashrate within endogenous system," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    21. Anil Savio Kavuri & Alistair Milne, 2019. "FinTech and the future of financial services: What are the research gaps?," CAMA Working Papers 2019-18, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

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