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Non-linear causal linkages of EPU and gold with major cryptocurrencies during bull and bear markets

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  • Papadamou, Stephanos
  • Kyriazis, Nikolaos A.
  • Tzeremes, Panayiotis G.

Abstract

This paper sets out to explore whether the innovative Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index and the safe haven asset of gold influence returns of high-capitalization cryptocurrencies in a non-linear manner. Estimations take place both concerning flourishing and stressed periods in the digital currency markets. Econometric outcomes reveal that the returns of almost half of the cryptocurrencies investigated are tightly connected to the EPU index in bull markets while even more currencies are linked with the index during bear markets. Similar findings are revealed as concerns gold as it proves to be more influential during bear markets due to its hedging capacities. There is also evidence that causality in variance is significant in all but the higher quantile concerning both EPU and gold estimations in both bull and bear markets.

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  • Papadamou, Stephanos & Kyriazis, Nikolaos A. & Tzeremes, Panayiotis G., 2021. "Non-linear causal linkages of EPU and gold with major cryptocurrencies during bull and bear markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:56:y:2021:i:c:s106294082030228x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2020.101343
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    Cited by:

    1. Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Xidonas, Panos & Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Goutte, Stéphane, 2023. "Gold and CoVid-19: Uncovering the safe haven hypothesis with dynamic MSR modeling," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    2. Kyriazis, Nikolaos A. & Papadamou, Stephanos & Tzeremes, Panayiotis, 2023. "Are benchmark stock indices, precious metals or cryptocurrencies efficient hedges against crises?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    3. ?ikolaos A. Kyriazis, 2021. "Impacts of Stock Indices, Oil, and Twitter Sentiment on Major Cryptocurrencies during the COVID-19 First Wave," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 133-146.
    4. Mo, Bin & Meng, Juan & Zheng, Liping, 2022. "Time and frequency dynamics of connectedness between cryptocurrencies and commodity markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    5. Wang, Kai-Hua & Liu, Lu & Zhong, Yifan & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and carbon emission trading market: A China's perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    6. Nikolaos A. Kyriazis, 2021. "A Survey on Volatility Fluctuations in the Decentralized Cryptocurrency Financial Assets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-46, June.
    7. Leander Bindewald, 2021. "Inconsistent Definitions of Money and Currency in Financial Legislation as a Threat to Innovation and Sustainability," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-17, January.
    8. Νikolaos A. Kyriazis, 2021. "Investigating the nexus between European major and sectoral stock indices, gold and oil during the COVID-19 pandemic," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(4), pages 1-12, April.
    9. Simran, & Sharma, Anil Kumar, 2023. "Asymmetric impact of economic policy uncertainty on cryptocurrency market: Evidence from NARDL approach," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    10. Salisu, Afees A. & Gupta, Rangan & Bouri, Elie, 2023. "Testing the forecasting power of global economic conditions for the volatility of international REITs using a GARCH-MIDAS approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 303-314.
    11. Mensi, Walid & El Khoury, Rim & Ali, Syed Riaz Mahmood & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2023. "Quantile dependencies and connectedness between the gold and cryptocurrency markets: Effects of the COVID-19 crisis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    12. Nikolaos A. Kyriazis, 2021. "Investigating the diversifying or hedging nexus of cannabis cryptocurrencies with major digital currencies," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 44(2), pages 845-861, December.
    13. Cheng, Sheng & Han, Lingyu & Cao, Yan & Jiang, Qisheng & Liang, Ruibin, 2022. "Gold-oil dynamic relationship and the asymmetric role of geopolitical risks: Evidence from Bayesian pdBEKK-GARCH with regime switching," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    14. Inzamam Ul Haq & Apichit Maneengam & Supat Chupradit & Wanich Suksatan & Chunhui Huo, 2021. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Cryptocurrency Market as a Risk Management Avenue: A Systematic Review," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-24, September.
    15. Gök, Remzi & Bouri, Elie & Gemici, Eray, 2022. "Can Twitter-based economic uncertainty predict safe-haven assets under all market conditions and investment horizons?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    16. Nikolaos A. Kyriazis, 2021. "The Nexus of Sophisticated Digital Assets with Economic Policy Uncertainty: A Survey of Empirical Findings and an Empirical Investigation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-25, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cryptocurrencies; Economic policy uncertainty index; Gold; Bull market; Bear market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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