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The interdependences of central bank’s forecasts and inflation expectations of consumers

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  • Magdalena Szyszko

    () (Poznan School of Banking)

Abstract

This paper focuses on the relationship between inflation forecast and inflation expectations of households measured on the basis of conducted surveys. Two hypotheses are presented. The first one assumes that there are interdependences between the inflation forecast results and consumers inflation expectations. The second hypothesis implies that the existence of the interdependences between the inflation forecasts and inflation expectations depends neither on detailed solutions in the field of forecasting inflation applied by central banks nor on their attitude towards inflation forecast targeting implementation. The research covers 4 central banks: of the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Romania.

Suggested Citation

  • Magdalena Szyszko, 2013. "The interdependences of central bank’s forecasts and inflation expectations of consumers," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 44(1), pages 33-66.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpbik:v:44:y:2013:i:1:p:33-66
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Magnus Forsells & Geoff Kenny, 2004. "Survey Expectations, Rationality and the Dynamics of Euro Area Inflation," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2004(1), pages 13-41.
    7. Michal Skorepa & Viktor Kottlan, 2003. "Assessing future inflation in inflation targeting: forecasts or simulations?," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 147-157 Bank for International Settlements.
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    Cited by:

    1. Magdalena Szyszko, . "Central Bank’s Inflation Forecast and Expectations. A Comparative Analysis," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 0, pages 1-14.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation forecasts; inflation forecast targeting; inflation expectations;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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