IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

The interdependences of central bank’s forecasts and inflation expectations of consumers

  • Magdalena Szyszko

    ()

    (Poznan School of Banking)

Registered author(s):

    This paper focuses on the relationship between inflation forecast and inflation expectations of households measured on the basis of conducted surveys. Two hypotheses are presented. The first one assumes that there are interdependences between the inflation forecast results and consumers inflation expectations. The second hypothesis implies that the existence of the interdependences between the inflation forecasts and inflation expectations depends neither on detailed solutions in the field of forecasting inflation applied by central banks nor on their attitude towards inflation forecast targeting implementation. The research covers 4 central banks: of the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Romania.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://www.bankikredyt.nbp.pl/content/2013/01/bik_01_2013_02_art.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Article provided by National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute in its journal Bank i Kredyt.

    Volume (Year): 44 (2013)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 33-66

    as
    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpbik:v:44:y:2013:i:1:p:33-66
    Contact details of provider: Postal: 00-919 Warszawa ul. Świętokrzyska 11/21
    Phone: (0-22) 653 10 00
    Fax: (0-22) 620 85 18
    Web page: http://www.bankikredyt.nbp.pl/menu_en.aspx

    More information through EDIRC

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Kai Leitemo, 2006. "Open-Economy Inflation-Forecast Targeting," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 7, pages 35-64, 02.
    2. Forsells, Magnus & Kenny, Geoff, 2002. "The rationality of consumers' inflation expectations: survey-based evidence for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0163, European Central Bank.
    3. Georgios Chortareas & David Stasavage & Gabriel Sterne, 2001. "Does it pay to be transparent? International evidence from central bank forecasts," Bank of England working papers 143, Bank of England.
    4. Camilo E Tovar, 2008. "DSGE models and central banks," BIS Working Papers 258, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Brzoza-Brzezina, Michal & Kot, Adam, 2008. "The Relativity Theory Revisited: Is Publishing Interest Rate Forecasts Really so Valuable?," MPRA Paper 10296, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2007. "Central Bank Communication and Expectations Stabilization," NBER Working Papers 13259, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Stefan Krause, 2002. "Central bank structure, policy efficiency, and macroeconomic performance: exploring empirical relationships," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 47-60.
    8. Magnus Forsells & Geoff Kenny, 2004. "Survey Expectations, Rationality and the Dynamics of Euro Area Inflation," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing,Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2004(1), pages 13-41.
    9. Svensson, Lars E O, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," CEPR Discussion Papers 1511, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Konstantins Benkovskis, 2008. "The Role of Inflation Expectations in the New EU Member States: Consumer Survey Based Results," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 58(07-08), pages 298-317, Oktober.
    11. Lyziak, Tomasz, 2003. "Consumer inflation expectations in Poland," Working Paper Series 0287, European Central Bank.
    12. Hans Gersbach, 2003. "On the negative social value of central banks' knowledge transparency," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 91-102, 08.
    13. Michael Ehrmann & David Sondermann, 2009. "The reception of public signals in financial markets – what if central bank communication becomes stale?," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 66, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
    14. Tarkka, Juha & Mayes, David, 1999. "The Value of Publishing Official Central Bank Forecasts," Research Discussion Papers 22/1999, Bank of Finland.
    15. Remsperger, Hermann & Worms, Andreas, 1999. "Transparency in monetary policy," CFS Working Paper Series 1999/16, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    16. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 607-654, June.
    17. Giuseppe Ferrero & Alessandro Secchi, 2009. "The Announcement of Monetary Policy Intentions," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 720, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    18. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2004. "Can Central Bank Transparency Go Too Far?," NBER Working Papers 10829, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Michal Skorepa & Viktor Kottlan, 2003. "Assessing future inflation in inflation targeting: forecasts or simulations?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 147-157 Bank for International Settlements.
    20. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2007. "Central Bank Communication and Expectations Stabilization," Discussion Papers 0708-10, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpbik:v:44:y:2013:i:1:p:33-66. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sylwia Roszkowska)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.