IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/vfsc17/168063.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Stabilizing Role of Forward Guidance: A Macro Experiment

Author

Listed:
  • Ahrens, Steffen
  • Lustenhouwer, Joep
  • Tettamanzi, Michele

Abstract

We study if central banks can manage market expectations by means of forward guidance in a New Keynesian learning-to-forecast experiment. Subjects observe public inflation projections by the central bank along with the historic development of the economy and subsequently submit their own inflation forecasts. We find that the central bank can significantly manage market expectations through forward guidance and that this management strongly supports monetary policy in stabilizing the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahrens, Steffen & Lustenhouwer, Joep & Tettamanzi, Michele, 2017. "The Stabilizing Role of Forward Guidance: A Macro Experiment," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168063, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168063
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/168063/1/VfS-2017-pid-1854.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul Hubert, 2015. "Do Central Bank Forecasts Influence Private Agents? Forecasting Performance versus Signals," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(4), pages 771-789, June.
    2. Pfajfar, D. & Zakelj, B., 2012. "Uncertainty and Disagreement in Forecasting Inflation : Evidence from the Laboratory (Revised version of CentER DP 2011-053)," Other publications TiSEM 38fac5ce-fe8f-4b61-a679-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    3. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    4. Mikhail Anufriev & Cars Hommes, 2012. "Evolutionary Selection of Individual Expectations and Aggregate Outcomes in Asset Pricing Experiments," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(4), pages 35-64, November.
    5. David H. Romer & Christina D. Romer, 2000. "Federal Reserve Information and the Behavior of Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 429-457, June.
    6. Duffy, John & Heinemann, Frank, 2021. "Central bank reputation, cheap talk and transparency as substitutes for commitment: Experimental evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 887-903.
    7. Cornand, Camille & M'baye, Cheick Kader, 2018. "Does Inflation Targeting Matter? An Experimental Investigation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(2), pages 362-401, March.
    8. Klaus Adam, 2007. "Experimental Evidence on the Persistence of Output and Inflation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(520), pages 603-636, April.
    9. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    10. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2008. "The FOMC versus the Staff: Where Can Monetary Policymakers Add Value?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 230-235, May.
    11. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Jess Benhabib & Martin Uribe, 2001. "Monetary Policy and Multiple Equilibria," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 167-186, March.
    12. Michael Ehrmann & Sylvester Eijffinger & Marcel Fratzscher, 2012. "The Role of Central Bank Transparency for Guiding Private Sector Forecasts," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 114(3), pages 1018-1052, September.
    13. Carlos Capistr¡N & Allan Timmermann, 2009. "Disagreement and Biases in Inflation Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2-3), pages 365-396, March.
    14. Marimon, Ramon & Sunder, Shyam, 1993. "Indeterminacy of Equilibria in a Hyperinflationary World: Experimental Evidence," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(5), pages 1073-1107, September.
    15. Pfajfar, Damjan & Žakelj, Blaž, 2014. "Experimental evidence on inflation expectation formation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 147-168.
    16. Gavin Goy & Cars Homme & Kostas Mavromatis, 2018. "Forward Guidance and the Role of Central Bank Credibility," DNB Working Papers 614, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    17. Hans Gersbach, 2003. "On the negative social value of central banks' knowledge transparency," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 91-102, August.
    18. Charemza, Wojciech & Ladley, Daniel, 2016. "Central banks’ forecasts and their bias: Evidence, effects and explanation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 804-817.
    19. Paul Hubert, 2015. "The Influence and Policy Signalling Role of FOMC Forecasts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(5), pages 655-680, October.
    20. Shane Frederick, 2005. "Cognitive Reflection and Decision Making," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 25-42, Fall.
    21. Henrik Jensen, 2002. "Optimal Degrees of Transparency in Monetary Policymaking," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 104(3), pages 399-422, September.
    22. Evans, George W. & Guse, Eran & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2008. "Liquidity traps, learning and stagnation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1438-1463, November.
    23. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    24. Alan S. Blinder, 2000. "Central-Bank Credibility: Why Do We Care? How Do We Build It?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1421-1431, December.
    25. Assenza, T. & Heemeijer, P. & Hommes, C.H. & Massaro, D., 2011. "Individual Expectations and Aggregate Macro Behavior," CeNDEF Working Papers 11-01, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    26. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2015. "Day One Keynote Address: Forward Guidance," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(4), pages 19-64, September.
    27. Jonas Dovern & Ulrich Fritsche & Jiri Slacalek, 2012. "Disagreement Among Forecasters in G7 Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 1081-1096, November.
    28. Paul Hubert, 2009. "An Empirical Review of Federal Reserve’s Informational Advantage," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2009-03, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    29. Spencer Dale & Athanasios Orphanides & Pär Österholm, 2011. "Imperfect Central Bank Communication: Information versus Distraction," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(2), pages 3-39, June.
    30. Fujiwara, Ippei, 2005. "Is the central bank's publication of economic forecasts influential?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(3), pages 255-261, December.
    31. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    32. Sebastian Gomez-Barrero & Julian A. Parra-Polania, 2014. "Central Bank Strategic Forecasting," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 32(4), pages 802-810, October.
    33. Georgios Chortareas & David Stasavage & Gabriel Sterne, 2002. "Does it pay to be transparent? international evidence form central bank forecasts," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 84(Jul), pages 99-118.
    34. Woodford Michael, 2002. "Inflation Stabilization and Welfare," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-53, February.
    35. Petra M. Geraats, 2002. "Central Bank Transparency," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(483), pages 532-565, November.
    36. Geraats Petra M., 2005. "Transparency and Reputation: The Publication of Central Bank Forecasts," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-28, February.
    37. Paul Hubert, 2014. "FOMC Forecasts as a Focal Point for Private Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(7), pages 1381-1420, October.
    38. Camille Cornand & Cheick Kader M’baye, 2018. "Band or point inflation targeting? An experimental approach," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 13(2), pages 283-309, July.
    39. Oleksiy Kryvtsov & Luba Petersen, 2013. "Expectations and Monetary Policy: Experimental Evidence," Staff Working Papers 13-44, Bank of Canada.
    40. Hommes, Cars, 2011. "The heterogeneous expectations hypothesis: Some evidence from the lab," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-24, January.
    41. repec:pri:cepsud:161blinder is not listed on IDEAS
    42. Giuseppe Ferrero & Alessandro Secchi, 2010. "Central banks' macroeconomic projections and learning," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 782, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    43. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2010. "Central Bank Communication and Expectations Stabilization," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 235-271, July.
    44. Luba Petersen & Jasmina Arifovic, 2015. "Escaping Expectations-Driven Liquidity Traps: Experimental Evidence," Discussion Papers dp15-03, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
    45. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1534, December.
    46. Cars Hommes & Domenico Massaro & Isabelle Salle, 2019. "Monetary And Fiscal Policy Design At The Zero Lower Bound: Evidence From The Lab," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(2), pages 1120-1140, April.
    47. Steffen Ahrens & Matthias Hartmann, 2015. "Cross-sectional evidence on state-dependent versus time-dependent price setting," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(4), pages 2701-2709.
    48. Camille Cornand & Frank Heinemann, 2014. "Experiments on Monetary Policy and Central Banking," Research in Experimental Economics, in: John Duffy (ed.), Experiments in Macroeconomics, volume 17, pages 167-227, Emerald Publishing Ltd.
    49. Jeffery Amato & Hyun Shin, 2006. "Imperfect common knowledge and the information value of prices," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 27(1), pages 213-241, January.
    50. Tarkka, Juha & Mayes, David, 1999. "The value of publishing official central bank forecasts," Research Discussion Papers 22/1999, Bank of Finland.
    51. Fatemeh Mokhtarzadeh & Luba Petersen, 2017. "Coordinating expectations through central bank projections," Discussion Papers dp17-03, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
    52. Paul Hubert, 2015. "Revisiting the Greenbook’s relative forecasting performance," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 151-179.
    53. Andrew Filardo & Boris Hofmann, 2014. "Forward guidance at the zero lower bound," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    54. Carl E. Walsh, 2007. "Optimal Economic Transparency," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(1), pages 5-36, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mundt, Philipp & Alfarano, Simone & Milaković, Mishael, 2020. "Survival and the ergodicity of corporate profitability," BERG Working Paper Series 162, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    2. Arata, Yoshiyuki & Mundt, Philipp, 2019. "Topology and formation of production input interlinkages: Evidence from Japanese microdata," BERG Working Paper Series 152, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    3. Camille Cornand & Frank Heinemann, 2018. "Experiments on macroeconomics: methods and applications," Working Papers halshs-01809937, HAL.
    4. Camille Cornand & Frank Heinemann, 2018. "Experiments on macroeconomics: methods and applications," Post-Print halshs-01809937, HAL.
    5. Duffy, John & Heinemann, Frank, 2021. "Central bank reputation, cheap talk and transparency as substitutes for commitment: Experimental evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 887-903.
    6. Ryan Rholes & Luba Petersen, 2020. "Should central banks communicate uncertainty in their projections?," Discussion Papers dp20-01, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
    7. Proaño Acosta, Christian & Lojak, Benjamin, 2019. "Animal spirits, risk premia and monetary policy at the zero lower bound," BERG Working Paper Series 148, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    8. Hommes, Cars & Makarewicz, Tomasz, 2021. "Price level versus inflation targeting under heterogeneous expectations: a laboratory experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 39-82.
    9. Hommes, Cars, 2018. "Behavioral & experimental macroeconomics and policy analysis: a complex systems approach," Working Paper Series 2201, European Central Bank.
    10. Mundt, Philipp & Oh, Ilfan, 2019. "Asymmetric competition, risk, and return distribution," BERG Working Paper Series 145, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    11. Gavin Goy & Cars Homme & Kostas Mavromatis, 2018. "Forward Guidance and the Role of Central Bank Credibility," DNB Working Papers 614, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ahrens, Steffen & Lustenhouwer, Joep & Tettamanzi, Michele, 2018. "The stabilizing role of forward guidance: A macro experiment," BERG Working Paper Series 137, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    2. Paul Hubert, 2015. "Do Central Bank Forecasts Influence Private Agents? Forecasting Performance versus Signals," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(4), pages 771-789, June.
    3. van der Cruijsen, C.A.B., 2008. "The economic impact of central bank transparency," Other publications TiSEM 86c1ba91-1952-45b4-adac-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    4. Cars Hommes & Domenico Massaro & Isabelle Salle, 2019. "Monetary And Fiscal Policy Design At The Zero Lower Bound: Evidence From The Lab," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(2), pages 1120-1140, April.
    5. Paul Hubert, 2010. "Monetary Policy, Imperfect Information and the Expectations Channel," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1u, Sciences Po.
    6. Hommes, Cars & Massaro, Domenico & Weber, Matthias, 2019. "Monetary policy under behavioral expectations: Theory and experiment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 193-212.
    7. Ryan Rholes & Luba Petersen, 2020. "Should central banks communicate uncertainty in their projections?," Discussion Papers dp20-01, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
    8. Gavin Goy & Cars Homme & Kostas Mavromatis, 2018. "Forward Guidance and the Role of Central Bank Credibility," DNB Working Papers 614, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    9. Arifovic, Jasmina & Petersen, Luba, 2017. "Stabilizing expectations at the zero lower bound: Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 21-43.
    10. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Anna Agliari & Domenico Massaro & Nicolò Pecora & Alessandro Spelta, 2017. "Inflation Targeting, Recursive Inattentiveness, and Heterogeneous Beliefs," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(7), pages 1587-1619, October.
    12. Hommes, Cars, 2018. "Behavioral & experimental macroeconomics and policy analysis: a complex systems approach," Working Paper Series 2201, European Central Bank.
    13. Ma, Yong & Li, Shushu, 2015. "Bayesian estimation of China's monetary policy transparency: A New Keynesian approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 236-248.
    14. Paul Hubert, 2015. "ECB Projections as a Tool for Understanding Policy Decisions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(7), pages 574-587, November.
    15. Petra Geraats, 2014. "Monetary Policy Transparency," CESifo Working Paper Series 4611, CESifo.
    16. Shambaugh, George E. & Shen, Elaine B., 2018. "A clear advantage: The benefits of transparency to crisis recovery," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 391-416.
    17. James, Jonathan G. & Lawler, Phillip, 2010. "Macroeconomic shocks, unionized labour markets and central bank disclosure policy: How beneficial is increased transparency?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 506-516, December.
    18. Ruttachai Seelajaroen & Pornanong Budsaratragoon & Boonlert Jitmaneeroj, 2020. "Do monetary policy transparency and central bank communication reduce interest rate disagreement?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 368-393, April.
    19. Camille Cornand & Frank Heinemann, 2015. "Macro-expérimentation autour des fonctions des banques centrales," Revue française d'économie, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(2), pages 3-47.
    20. Cornand, Camille & Hubert, Paul, 2020. "On the external validity of experimental inflation forecasts: A comparison with five categories of field expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    21. Petra Geraats, 2014. "Transparency, Flexibility and Macroeconomic Stabilization," CESifo Working Paper Series 4642, CESifo.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc17:168063. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfsocea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.