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A Horse Race of Monetary Policy Regimes: An Experimental Investigation

Author

Listed:
  • Olena Kostyshyna
  • Luba Petersen
  • Jing Yang

Abstract

We provide a comprehensive assessment of leading monetary policy frameworks away from and at the ELB. Inflation targeting, dual mandate, average inflation targeting under 4- and 10-period horizons, price level targeting, and nominal GDP level targeting are evaluated in a laboratory setting. Contrary to theoretical prediction with full information rational expectations, participants exhibit backward-looking expectations and, consequently, rate-targeting mandates outperform level targeting. More history dependence worsens macroeconomic stability. Inflation expectations are managed better when mandates are framed in terms of inflation rates than price levels. Central bank communication significantly improves the performance of price level targeting.

Suggested Citation

  • Olena Kostyshyna & Luba Petersen & Jing Yang, 2022. "A Horse Race of Monetary Policy Regimes: An Experimental Investigation," NBER Working Papers 30530, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30530
    Note: ME
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    Cited by:

    1. Jasmina Arifovic & Isabelle Salle & Hung Truong, 2023. "History-Dependent Monetary Regimes: A Lab Experiment and a Henk Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 23-028/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    2. Olivier Armantier & Charles Holt, 2024. "Can Discount Window Stigma Be Cured? An Experimental Investigation," Staff Reports 1103, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    3. Salle, Isabelle L., 2023. "What to target? Insights from a lab experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 514-533.
    4. Salle, Isabelle & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Coibion, Olivier, 2023. "Lifetime Memories of Inflation: Evidence from Surveys and the Lab," CEPR Discussion Papers 18684, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Malik Shukayev & Robert Amano, 2025. "Price-Level Targeting and Inflation Expectations: Experimental Evidence," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 21(3), pages 185-228, July.
    6. Cars Hommes & Mario He & Sebastian Poledna & Melissa Siqueira & Yang Zhang, 2022. "CANVAS: A Canadian Behavioral Agent-Based Model," Staff Working Papers 22-51, Bank of Canada.
    7. Hoffmann, Mathias & Mönch, Emanuel & Pavlova, Lora & Schultefrankenfeld, Guido, 2023. "Forceful or persistent: Wow the ECB's new inflation target affects households' inflation expectations," Discussion Papers 27/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Wagner, Joel & Schlanger, Tudor & Zhang, Yang, 2023. "A horse race of alternative monetary policy regimes under bounded rationality," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E70 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General

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