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Escaping Expectations-Driven Liquidity Traps: Experimental Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Luba Petersen

    () (Simon Fraser University)

  • Jasmina Arifovic

    () (Simon Fraser University)

Abstract

Can monetary or fiscal policy stabilize expectations in a liquidity trap? We study expectation formation near the zero lower bound using a learning-to-forecast laboratory experiment. Monetary policy targets inflation around a constant or state-dependent target. Subjects’ expectations significantly over-react to stochastic aggregate demand shocks and historical information leading many economies to experience severe deflationary traps. Neither quantitative nor qualitative communication of inflation targets reduce the duration or severity of economic crises. A stronger initial recovery of fundamentals or supplementary anticipated fiscal stimulus stabilizes expectations and increases the speed of macroeconomic recovery.

Suggested Citation

  • Luba Petersen & Jasmina Arifovic, 2015. "Escaping Expectations-Driven Liquidity Traps: Experimental Evidence," Discussion Papers dp15-03, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
  • Handle: RePEc:sfu:sfudps:dp15-03
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    File URL: http://www.sfu.ca/econ-research/RePEc/sfu/sfudps/dp15-03.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    4. Tiziana Assenza & Peter Heemeijer & Cars Hommes & Domenica Massaro, 2011. "Individual Expectations and Aggregate Macro Behavior," DNB Working Papers 298, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ahrens, Steffen & Lustenhouwer, Joep & Tettamanzi, Michele, 2017. "The Stabilizing Role of Forward Guidance: A Macro Experiment," Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168063, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Hommes, Cars, 2018. "Behavioral & experimental macroeconomics and policy analysis: a complex systems approach," Working Paper Series 2201, European Central Bank.
    3. Geiger, Martin & Luhan, Wolfgang J. & Scharler, Johann, 2016. "When do fiscal consolidations lead to consumption booms? Lessons from a laboratory experiment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1-20.
    4. repec:bla:ecinqu:v:57:y:2019:i:2:p:1120-1140 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Hommes, C.H. & Lustenhouwer, J., 2015. "Inflation Targeting and Liquidity Traps under Endogenous Credibility," CeNDEF Working Papers 15-03, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    6. Cars Hommes & Domenico Massaro & Isabelle Salle, 2019. "Monetary And Fiscal Policy Design At The Zero Lower Bound: Evidence From The Lab," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(2), pages 1120-1140, April.
    7. Gavin Goy & Cars Homme & Kostas Mavromatis, 2018. "Forward Guidance and the Role of Central Bank Credibility," DNB Working Papers 614, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    experimental macroeconomics; monetary policy; expectations; zero lower bound; learning to forecast; communication;

    JEL classification:

    • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • D50 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - General
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

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