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Reducing overreaction to central banks' disclosures : theory and experiment

Author

Listed:
  • Romain Baeriswyl

    (Swiss National Bank - Swiss National Bank)

  • Camille Cornand

    () (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] - Université de Lyon - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Financial markets are known for overreacting to public information. Central banks can reduce this overreaction either by disclosing information to a fraction of market participants only (partial publicity) or by disclosing information to all participants but with ambiguity (partial transparency). We show that, in theory, both communication strategies are strictly equivalent in the sense that overreaction can be indi-erently mitigated by reducing the degree of publicity or by reducing the degree of transparency. We run a laboratory experiment to test whether theoretical predictions hold in a game played by human beings. In line with theory, the experiment does not allow the formulation of a clear preference in favor of either communication strategy. This paper, however, makes a case for partial transparency rather than partial publicity because the latter seems increasingly diffcult to implement in the present information age and is associated with discrimination as well as fairness issues.

Suggested Citation

  • Romain Baeriswyl & Camille Cornand, 2012. "Reducing overreaction to central banks' disclosures : theory and experiment," Working Papers halshs-00657943, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00657943
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00657943
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Camille Cornand & Frank Heinemann, 2014. "Measuring agents’ reaction to private and public information in games with strategic complementarities," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 17(1), pages 61-77, March.
    2. Camille Cornand, 2006. "Speculative Attacks and Informational Structure: an Experimental Study," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(5), pages 797-817, November.
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    4. Heinemann, Frank & Illing, Gerhard, 2002. "Speculative attacks: unique equilibrium and transparency," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 429-450, December.
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    6. Dmitry Shapiro & Xianwen Shi & Artie Zillante, 2009. "Robustness of Level-k Reasoning in Generalized Beauty Contest Games," Working Papers tecipa-380, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    7. Camille Cornand & Frank Heinemann, 2008. "Optimal Degree of Public Information Dissemination," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(528), pages 718-742, April.
    8. Christian Hellwig & Laura Veldkamp, 2009. "Knowing What Others Know: Coordination Motives in Information Acquisition," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 76(1), pages 223-251.
    9. Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 2004. "Coordination risk and the price of debt," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 133-153, February.
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    12. Baeriswyl, Romain & Cornand, Camille, 2010. "The signaling role of policy actions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(6), pages 682-695, September.
    13. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin & Hui Tong, 2006. "Social Value of Public Information: Morris and Shin (2002) Is Actually Pro-Transparency, Not Con: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 453-455, March.
    14. Nagel, Rosemarie, 1995. "Unraveling in Guessing Games: An Experimental Study," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1313-1326, December.
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    16. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2006. "Social Value of Public Information: Comment: Morris and Shin (2002) Is Actually Pro-Transparency, Not Con," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 448-452, March.
    17. Romain Baeriswyl, 2011. "Endogenous Central Bank Information and the Optimal Degree of Transparency," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(2), pages 85-111, June.
    18. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1534, December.
    19. Frank Heinemann & Rosemarie Nagel & Peter Ockenfels, 2004. "The Theory of Global Games on Test: Experimental Analysis of Coordination Games with Public and Private Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(5), pages 1583-1599, September.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Dietmar Fehr & Frank Heinemann & Aniol Llorente-Saguer, 2011. "The Power of Sunspots: An Experimental Analysis," Discussion Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods 2011_33, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods.
    2. Baeriswyl Romain & Cornand Camille, 2016. "The Predominant Role of Signal Precision in Experimental Beauty Contests," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 267-301, January.
    3. Emna Trabelsi & Walid Hichri, 2013. "Central bank Transparency and Information Dissemination : An experimental Approach," Working Papers 1336, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    4. Giamattei, Marcus, 2015. "Cold Turkey vs. gradualism: Evidence on disinflation strategies from a laboratory experiment," Passauer Diskussionspapiere, Volkswirtschaftliche Reihe V-67-15, University of Passau, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    5. Camille Cornand & Frank Heinemann, 2018. "Experiments on macroeconomics: methods and applications," Post-Print halshs-01809937, HAL.
    6. Camille Cornand & Frank Heinemann, 2015. "Macro-expérimentation autour des fonctions des banques centrales," Revue française d'économie, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(2), pages 3-47.
    7. Kene Boun My & Camille Cornand & Rodolphe Dos Santos Ferreira, 2017. "Speculation rather than enterprise? Keynes’ beauty contest revisited in theory and experiment," Working Papers of BETA 2017-13, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    8. Camille Cornand & Frank Heinemann, 2015. "Limited higher order beliefs and the welfare effects of public information," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 42(6), pages 1005-1028, November.
    9. Luba Petersen & Jasmina Arifovic, 2015. "Escaping Expectations-Driven Liquidity Traps: Experimental Evidence," Discussion Papers dp15-03, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
    10. Romain Baeriswyl & Camille Cornand & Bruno Ziliotto, 2016. "Observing and shaping the market: the dilemma of central banks," Working Papers 1623, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    11. repec:eee:matsoc:v:90:y:2017:i:c:p:191-207 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Camille Cornand & Frank Heinemann, 2014. "Measuring agents’ reaction to private and public information in games with strategic complementarities," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 17(1), pages 61-77, March.
    13. Hüning, Hendrik & Meub, Lukas, 2015. "Optimal public information dissemination: Introducing observational learning into a generalized beauty contest," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 260, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    14. Bennani, Hamza, 2014. "Does one word fit all? The asymmetric effects of central banks' communication policy," MPRA Paper 57150, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Nagel, Rosemarie & Bühren, Christoph & Frank, Björn, 2017. "Inspired and inspiring: Hervé Moulin and the discovery of the beauty contest game," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 191-207.
    16. Alfarano, Simone & Camacho, Eva & Morone, Andrea, 2015. "Do investors rely too much on public information to be justified by its accuracy? An experimental study," FinMaP-Working Papers 30, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
    17. Camille Cornand & Frank Heinemann, 2018. "Experiments on macroeconomics: methods and applications," Working Papers halshs-01809937, HAL.
    18. Hüning, Hendrik & Meub, Lukas, 2016. "Optimal public information dissemination: Introducing multiplier effects into a generalized beauty contest," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 260 [rev.], University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    19. Jasmina Arifovic & Janet Hua Jiang, 2014. "Do Sunspots Matter? Evidence from an Experimental Study of Bank Runs," Staff Working Papers 14-12, Bank of Canada.
    20. repec:sfu:sfudps:dp13-09 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Steven J. Bosworth, 2017. "The importance of higher-order beliefs to successful coordination," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 20(1), pages 237-258, March.
    22. Hüning, Hendrik & Meub, Lukas, 2015. "Optimal public information dissemination: Introducing observational learning into a generalized beauty contest," HWWI Research Papers 169, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    23. Camille Cornand & Frank Heinemann, 2018. "Experiments on macroeconomics: methods and applications," Working Papers 1810, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    24. Shapiro, Dmitry & Shi, Xianwen & Zillante, Artie, 2014. "Level-k reasoning in a generalized beauty contest," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 308-329.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    heterogeneous information; public information; overreaction; transparency; coordination; experiment;

    JEL classification:

    • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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