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Central bank Transparency and Information Dissemination: An Experimental Approach

Listed author(s):
  • Walid Hichri

    (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - UJM - Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] - Université de Lyon - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Emna Trabelsi

    (ISG - Institut Supérieur de Gestion de Tunis [Tunis] - Université de Tunis [Tunis])

In this paper, we propose to compare different partial transparency regimes in order to determine the optimal diessemination policy by the central bank, using an experimental approach. A treatment dedicated to the benchmark situation (where information is fully released) is also available. Our experiment is based on subsequent framework of Morris and Shin (2002), Cornand and Heinemann (2008) and Trabelsi (2012). The predictive power of K-level reasoning is an issue that is addressed also in this paper. Our experiment indicates that -when fully disclosed- players overreact to public information and this overreaction is efficiently reduced when the degree of publicity decreases (i.e. when the fragmentation measure increases). The average weight assigned to common signal decreases over treatments, especially when we establish partial transparent strategy (i.e. fragmented information). The results provide support both for and against global games theoretical predictions. In fact, although players overreact to public signal, their behavior is inconsistent with theoretical equilibrium, which means that the destabilizing effect of public information is less pronounced experimentally than when it does in theory. This is not the case when public information is fragmented ; subjects’ behavior does approach equilibrium. These observations coincide with both a collective and an individual analyses of behavior.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number halshs-00958655.

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Date of creation: 20 Feb 2014
Publication status: Published in Séminaire des jeudis d'Economie et de Finance, FSEGT-Campus, Université de Tunis El Manar, Tunis, 20 février 2014, Feb 2014, Tunis, Tunisia
Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00958655
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00958655
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  1. Jeffery D. Amato & Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Communication and Monetary Policy," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 18(4), pages 495-503.
  2. Romain Baeriswyl & Camille Cornand, 2011. "Reducing overreaction to central banks’ disclosures : theory and experiment," Working Papers 1141, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
  3. Dmitry Shapiro & Xianwen Shi & Artie Zillante, 2009. "Robustness of Level-k Reasoning in Generalized Beauty Contest Games," Working Papers tecipa-380, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
  4. Emna Trabelsi, 2012. "How avoiding overreaction to public information? Some insights on central bank communication practices," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2012_14, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  5. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
  6. Romain Baeriswyl & Camille Cornand, 2014. "Reducing Overreaction To Central Banks' Disclosures: Theory And Experiment," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 1087-1126, August.
  7. Romain Baeriswyl & Camille Cornand, 2014. "Reducing Overreaction To Central Banks' Disclosures: Theory And Experiment," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 1087-1126, August.
  8. Emna Trabelsi & Mohamed Ayadi, 2010. "The role of central bank transparency in a macroeconomic perspective: evidence from a pooled cross-country setting," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(4), pages 1-26.
  9. Nagel, Rosemarie, 1995. "Unraveling in Guessing Games: An Experimental Study," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1313-1326, December.
  10. Urs Fischbacher, 2007. "z-Tree: Zurich toolbox for ready-made economic experiments," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 10(2), pages 171-178, June.
  11. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2006. "Social Value of Public Information: Comment: Morris and Shin (2002) Is Actually Pro-Transparency, Not Con," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 448-452, March.
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