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What Do We Learn from Cross-Regional Empirical Estimates in Macroeconomics?

Author

Listed:
  • Adam Guren
  • Alisdair McKay
  • Emi Nakamura
  • Jón Steinsson

Abstract

Recent empirical work uses variation across cities or regions to identify the effects of economic shocks of interest to macroeconomists. The interpretation of such estimates is complicated by the fact that they reflect both partial equilibrium and local general equilibrium effects of the shocks. We propose an approach for recovering estimates of partial equilibrium effects from these cross-regional empirical estimates. The basic idea is to divide the cross-regional estimate by an estimate of the local fiscal multiplier, which measures the strength of local general equilibrium amplification. We apply this approach to recent estimates of housing wealth effects based on city-level variation, and derive conditions under which the adjustment is exact. We then evaluate its accuracy in a richer general equilibrium model of consumption and housing. The paper also reconciles the positive cross-sectional correlation between house price growth and construction with the notion that cities with larger price volatility have lower housing supply elasticities using a model in which housing supply elasticities are more dispersed in the long run than in the short run.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Adam Guren & Alisdair McKay & Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2021. "What Do We Learn from Cross-Regional Empirical Estimates in Macroeconomics?," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 35(1), pages 175-223.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:macann:doi:10.1086/712321
    DOI: 10.1086/712321
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    Cited by:

    1. Fabio Canova, 2024. "Should we trust cross‐sectional multiplier estimates?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(4), pages 589-606, June.
    2. Hoyos, Mateo & Coronado, José Alejandro & Martins, Guilherme Klein, 2024. "Local and Spillover Effects of Trade on Structural Transformation: Evidence from Brazil," SocArXiv rfqvt, Center for Open Science.
    3. Diego Daruich & Julian Kozlowski, 2023. "Macroeconomic Implications of Uniform Pricing," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 64-108, July.
    4. Michael J Böhm & Terry Gregory & Pamela Qendrai & Christian Siegel, 2021. "Demographic change and regional labour markets," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 37(1), pages 113-131.
    5. Luigi Marattin & Tommaso Nannicini & Francesco Porcelli, 2022. "Revenue vs expenditure based fiscal consolidation: the pass-through from federal cuts to local taxes," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 29(4), pages 834-872, August.
    6. Wall, Howard, 2023. "The Great, Greater, and Greatest Recessions of US States," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 53(01), January.
    7. Jeremy Majerovitz & Karthik Sastry, 2023. "How Much Should We Trust Regional-Exposure Designs?," Working Papers 2023-018, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    8. Quincy, Sarah, 2022. "Income shocks and housing spillovers: Evidence from the World War I Veterans’ Bonus," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    9. Ozan Güler & Mike Mariathasan & Klaas Mulier & Nejat G. Okatan, 2021. "The real effects of banks' corporate credit supply: A literature review," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(3), pages 1252-1285, July.
    10. Olivier Blanchard, 2025. "Convergence? Thoughts About the Evolution of Mainstream Macroeconomics over the Last 40 Years," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2025, volume 40, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Alistair Macaulay, 2026. "The Causal Effects of Heterogeneous Expectation Formation in General Equilibrium," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0226, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    12. Beuermann, Diether W. & Bottan, Nicolas L. & Hoffmann, Bridget & Jackson, C. Kirabo & Vera-Cossio, Diego, 2024. "Does education prevent job loss during downturns? Evidence from exogenous school assignments and COVID-19 in Barbados," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    13. Kieran P. Donaghy, 2021. "Implications for Regional Science of the “Rebuilding Macroeconomic Theory Projectâ€," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 44(3-4), pages 363-384, May.
    14. Schuyler Louie & John A. Mondragon & Johannes Wieland, 2025. "Supply Constraints do not Explain House Price and Quantity Growth Across U.S. Cities," NBER Working Papers 33576, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. repec:osf:socarx:rfqvt_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Stephen J. Terry & Thomas Chaney & Konrad B. Burchardi & Lisa Tarquinio & Tarek A. Hassan, 2026. "Immigration, Innovation, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 116(3), pages 828-861, March.
    17. Timothy G. Conley & Bill Dupor & Rong Li & Yijiang Zhou, 2023. "Decomposing the Government Transfer Multiplier," Working Papers 2023-017, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 17 Nov 2023.
    18. Alisdair McKay & Christian K. Wolf, 2023. "What Can Time‐Series Regressions Tell Us About Policy Counterfactuals?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(5), pages 1695-1725, September.
    19. Hyunseung Oh & Choongryul Yang & Chamna Yoon, 2024. "Land development and frictions to housing supply over the business cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-010, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    20. Kishaba, Yui & Okuda, Tatsushi, 2025. "The slope of the Phillips curve for service prices in Japan: Regional panel data approach," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    21. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon Hanson, 2021. "On the Persistence of the China Shock," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 52(2 (Fall)), pages 381-476.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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