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Land development and frictions to housing supply over the business cycle

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Abstract

Using a novel data set of U.S. residential land developments, we document that the average time to develop residential properties-which includes both the time spent preparing land infrastructures and construction-is about three years, consistent with sizable lags in housing investment projects. We show that the time to develop is highly dispersed across locations, a finding that helps quantify the housing supply elasticity that is relevant for assessing local housing variations over the business cycle. We also show that incorporating long and dispersed time to develop into an otherwise standard housing investment model helps rationalize some empirical facts on the housing market. Our model implies that policies to boost housing supply are less effective in immediately stabilizing house prices for regions where land development takes a long time.

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  • Hyunseung Oh & Choongryul Yang & Chamna Yoon, 2024. "Land development and frictions to housing supply over the business cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-010, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2024-10
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2024.010
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    1. Matthias Meier, 2020. "Supply Chain Disruptions, Time to Build, and the Business Cycle," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2020_160, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    2. Adam Guren & Alisdair McKay & Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2021. "What Do We Learn from Cross-Regional Empirical Estimates in Macroeconomics?," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 35(1), pages 175-223.
    3. James Graham & Christos A. Makridis, 2023. "House Prices and Consumption: A New Instrumental Variables Approach," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 411-443, January.
    4. Davidoff, Thomas, 2016. "Supply Constraints Are Not Valid Instrumental Variables for Home Prices Because They Are Correlated With Many Demand Factors," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 5(2), pages 177-206, December.
    5. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2010. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 125-164, April.
    6. Joseph Gyourko & Edward L. Glaeser, 2008. "Rethinking Federal Housing Policy," Books, American Enterprise Institute, number 50499, September.
    7. Alvin Murphy, 2018. "A Dynamic Model of Housing Supply," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 243-267, November.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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