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Imperfect Knowledge about Asset Prices and Credit Cycles

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  • Pei Kuang
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    I develop an equilibrium model with collateral constraints in which rational agents are uncertain and learn about the equilibrium mapping between fundamentals and collateral prices. Bayesian updating of beliefs by agents can endogenously generate booms and busts in collateral prices and largely strengthen the role of colateral constraints as an amplification mechanism through the interaction of agents' beliefs, collateral prices and credit limits. Over-optimism or pessimism is fueled when a surprise in price expectations is interpreted partially by the agents as a permanent change in the parameters governing the collateral price process and is validated by subsequently realized prices. I show that the model can quantitatively account for the recent US boom-bust cycle in house prices, household debt and aggregate consumption dynamics during 2001-2008. I also demonstrate that the leveraged economy with a higher steady state leverage ratio is more prone to self-reinforcing learning dynamics.

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    File URL: ftp://ftp.bham.ac.uk/pub/RePEc/pdf/13-02.pdf
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    Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Birmingham in its series Discussion Papers with number 13-02.

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    Length: 45 pages
    Date of creation: Jan 2013
    Handle: RePEc:bir:birmec:13-02
    Contact details of provider: Postal:
    Edgbaston, Birmingham, B15 2TT

    Web page: http://www.economics.bham.ac.uk

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    1. Klaus Adam & Pei Kuang & Albert Marcet, 2012. "House Price Booms and the Current Account," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(1), pages 77-122.
    2. KevinJ. Lansing, 2010. "Rational and Near-Rational Bubbles Without Drift," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(549), pages 1149-1174, December.
    3. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
    4. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2010. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 125-164, April.
    5. Zheng Liu & Pengfei Wang & Tao Zha, 2013. "Land‐Price Dynamics and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(3), pages 1147-1184, 05.
    6. Boz, Emine & Mendoza, Enrique G., 2014. "Financial innovation, the discovery of risk, and the U.S. credit crisis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1-22.
    7. Assenza, Tiziana & Berardi, Michele, 2009. "Learning in a credit economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1159-1169, May.
    8. Klaus Adam & Albert Marcet & Juan Pablo Nicolini, 2016. "Stock Market Volatility and Learning," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(1), pages 33-82, 02.
    9. Adam, Klaus & Marcet, Albert, 2011. "Internal rationality, imperfect market knowledge and asset prices," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 1224-1252, May.
    10. Campbell, John Y., 1994. "Inspecting the mechanism: An analytical approach to the stochastic growth model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 463-506, June.
    11. Kuang, Pei, 2016. "A Note On Learning In A Credit Economy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(03), pages 845-855, April.
    12. Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 2000. "Creating business cycles through credit constraints," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Sum, pages 2-10.
    13. Eva Carceles-Poveda & Chryssi Giannitsarou, 2008. "Asset Pricing with Adaptive Learning," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(3), pages 629-651, July.
    14. Klaus Adam & Albert Marcet, 2010. "Booms and Busts in Asset Prices," IMES Discussion Paper Series 10-E-02, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
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