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Imperfect Knowledge about Asset Prices and Credit Cycles

Listed author(s):
  • Pei Kuang
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    I develop an equilibrium model with collateral constraints in which rational agents are uncertain and learn about the equilibrium mapping between fundamentals and collateral prices. Bayesian updating of beliefs by agents can endogenously generate booms and busts in collateral prices and largely strengthen the role of colateral constraints as an amplification mechanism through the interaction of agents' beliefs, collateral prices and credit limits. Over-optimism or pessimism is fueled when a surprise in price expectations is interpreted partially by the agents as a permanent change in the parameters governing the collateral price process and is validated by subsequently realized prices. I show that the model can quantitatively account for the recent US boom-bust cycle in house prices, household debt and aggregate consumption dynamics during 2001-2008. I also demonstrate that the leveraged economy with a higher steady state leverage ratio is more prone to self-reinforcing learning dynamics.

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    File URL: ftp://ftp.bham.ac.uk/pub/RePEc/pdf/13-02.pdf
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    Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Birmingham in its series Discussion Papers with number 13-02.

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    Length: 45 pages
    Date of creation: Jan 2013
    Handle: RePEc:bir:birmec:13-02
    Contact details of provider: Postal:
    Edgbaston, Birmingham, B15 2TT

    Web page: http://www.economics.bham.ac.uk

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    1. Adam, Klaus & Marcet, Albert & Nicolini, Juan Pablo, 2008. "Stock market volatility and learning," Working Paper Series 0862, European Central Bank.
    2. Klaus Adam & Albert Marcet, 2011. "Booms and Busts in Asset Prices," CEP Discussion Papers dp1059, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    3. Boz, Emine & Mendoza, Enrique G, 2010. "Financial Innovation, the Discovery of Risk, and the U.S. Credit Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 7967, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Klaus Adam & Pei Kuang & Albert Marcet, 2011. "House Price Booms and the Current Account," NBER Working Papers 17224, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Adam, Klaus & Marcet, Albert, 2011. "Internal rationality, imperfect market knowledge and asset prices," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 1224-1252, May.
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    8. Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 2000. "Creating business cycles through credit constraints," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Sum, pages 2-10.
    9. Matteo Iacoviello, 2002. "House prices, borrowing constraints and monetary policy in the business cycle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 542, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 06 Dec 2004.
    10. Carceles-Poveda, Eva & Giannitsarou, Chryssi, 2007. "Asset Pricing with Adaptive Learning," CEPR Discussion Papers 6223, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. John Moore & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, "undated". "Credit Cycles," Discussion Papers 1995-5, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
    12. Fabio Milani, 2011. "Expectation Shocks and Learning as Drivers of the Business Cycle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(552), pages 379-401, 05.
    13. Oliver Hart & John Moore, 1994. "A Theory of Debt Based on the Inalienability of Human Capital," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 109(4), pages 841-879.
    14. Kevin X. D. Huang & Zheng Liu & Tao Zha, 2008. "Learning, adaptive expectations, and technology shocks," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2008-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    15. Juan-Carlos Cordoba & Marla Ripoll, 2004. "Credit Cycles Redux," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1011-1046, November.
    16. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2008. "Housing market spillovers: Evidence from an estimated DSGE model," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 659, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    17. Kevin J. Lansing, 2007. "Rational and Near-Rational Bubbles Without Drift," 2007 Meeting Papers 970, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Campbell, John Y., 1994. "Inspecting the mechanism: An analytical approach to the stochastic growth model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 463-506, June.
    19. Eva Carceles-Poveda & Chryssi Giannitsarou, 2007. "Online Appendix to Asset Pricing with Adaptive Learning," Technical Appendices carceles08, Review of Economic Dynamics.
    20. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2011. "Expectations, Learning, and Business Cycle Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2844-2872, October.
    21. Kuang, Pei, 2016. "A Note On Learning In A Credit Economy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(03), pages 845-855, April.
    22. Tiziana Assenzay & Michele Berardi, 2008. "Learning in a Credit Economy," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 100, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
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