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Imperfect Knowledge about Asset Prices and Credit Cycles

  • Pei Kuang

    ()

    (University of Birmingham)

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    I develop an equilibrium model with collateral constraints in which rational agents are uncertain and learn about the equilibrium mapping between fundamentals and collateral prices. Bayesian updating of beliefs by agents can endogenously generate booms and busts in collateral prices and largely strengthen the role of collateral constraints as an amplification mechanism through the interaction of agents?' beliefs, collateral prices and credit limits. Over-optimism or pessimism is fueled when a surprise in price expectations is interpreted partially by the agents as a permanent change in the parameters governing the collateral price process and is validated by subsequently realized prices. I show that the model can quantitatively account for the recent US boom-bust cycle in house prices, household debt and aggregate consumption dynamics during 2001-2008. I also demonstrate that the leveraged economy with a higher steady state leverage ratio is more prone to self-reinforcing learning dynamics.

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    File URL: http://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/economics/repecfiles/2/1303.pdf
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    Paper provided by Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis in its series CDMA Working Paper Series with number 201303.

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    Date of creation: 01 Jan 2013
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    Handle: RePEc:san:cdmawp:1303
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    4. Kevin X. D. Huang & Zheng Liu & Tao Zha, 2008. "Learning, adaptive expectations, and technology shocks," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2008-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    5. Cordoba, Juan Carlos & Ripoll, Marla, 2010. "Credit Cycles Redux," Staff General Research Papers 32122, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
      • Juan-Carlos Cordoba & Marla Ripoll, 2004. "Credit Cycles Redux," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1011-1046, November.
    6. Albert Marcet & Klaus Adam & Juan Pablo Nicolini, 2008. "Stock Market Volatility and Learning," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 732.08, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
    7. Eva Carceles-Poveda & Chryssi Giannitsarou, 2007. "Online Appendix to Asset Pricing with Adaptive Learning," Technical Appendices carceles08, Review of Economic Dynamics.
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    10. Enrique Mendoza & Emine Boz, 2010. "Financial Innovation, the Discovery of Risk, and the U.S. Credit Crisis," 2010 Meeting Papers 316, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. KevinJ. Lansing, 2010. "Rational and Near-Rational Bubbles Without Drift," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(549), pages 1149-1174, December.
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    15. Klaus Adam & Pei Kuang & Albert Marcet, 2011. "House Price Booms and the Current Account," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2011, Volume 26, pages 77-122 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Carceles-Poveda, Eva & Giannitsarou, Chryssi, 2007. "Asset Pricing with Adaptive Learning," CEPR Discussion Papers 6223, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Matteo Iacoviello, 2002. "House prices, borrowing constraints and monetary policy in the business cycle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 542, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 06 Dec 2004.
    18. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & John Moore, 1995. "Credit Cycles," NBER Working Papers 5083, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Milani, Fabio, 2010. "Expectation Shocks and Learning as Drivers of the Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 7743, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    21. Campbell, John Y., 1994. "Inspecting the mechanism: An analytical approach to the stochastic growth model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 463-506, June.
    22. Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 2000. "Creating business cycles through credit constraints," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Sum, pages 2-10.
    23. Pei Kuang, 2013. "A Note on Learning in a Credit Economy," Discussion Papers 14-08, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    24. Oliver Hart & John Moore, 1994. "A Theory of Debt Based on the Inalienability of Human Capital," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 109(4), pages 841-879.
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