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House Prices and Consumption: A New Instrumental Variables Approach

Author

Listed:
  • James Graham
  • Christos A. Makridis

Abstract

We introduce a novel Bartik-like instrument for house prices consisting of the local composition of housing characteristics interacted with aggregate changes in the marginal prices of these characteristics. Using household-level panel data, we estimate elasticities of nondurable consumption expenditures with respect to house prices of around 0.1. These consumption effects are concentrated among the young and those most likely to be facing tight borrowing constraints. A decomposition shows that identifying variation in the instrument is associated with times and locations where house prices have varied the most: during the housing bust of the mid-2000s and in the western United States.

Suggested Citation

  • James Graham & Christos A. Makridis, 2023. "House Prices and Consumption: A New Instrumental Variables Approach," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 411-443, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:15:y:2023:i:1:p:411-43
    DOI: 10.1257/mac.20200246
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rodrigo Adão & Michal Kolesár & Eduardo Morales, 2019. "Shift-Share Designs: Theory and Inference," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(4), pages 1949-2010.
    2. Rodrigo Ad~ao & Michal Koles'ar & Eduardo Morales, 2018. "Shift-Share Designs: Theory and Inference," Papers 1806.07928, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2019.
    3. Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham & Isaac Sorkin & Henry Swift, 2020. "Bartik Instruments: What, When, Why, and How," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(8), pages 2586-2624, August.
    4. Johannes Stroebel & Joseph Vavra, 2019. "House Prices, Local Demand, and Retail Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(3), pages 1391-1436.
    5. Joseph Gyourko & Albert Saiz & Anita Summers, 2008. "A New Measure of the Local Regulatory Environment for Housing Markets: The Wharton Residential Land Use Regulatory Index," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 45(3), pages 693-729, March.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. David-Jan Jansen, 2023. "Homeowners and flood risk: A disconnect between awareness and actions?," Working Papers 791, DNB.
    2. Yan, Suyan & Tong, Chang & Liu, Qiliang, 2025. "Housing prices and labor cost stickiness: Evidence from China," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1).
    3. Lee, Seungyoon, 2023. "House prices, homeownership, and household consumption: Evidence from household panel data in Korea," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    4. Zhang Juanfeng & Lin Yupiaopiao & Han Rui & Li Lele & Zeng Hui, 2024. "Do high housing prices inhibit entrepreneurial activity?—Evidence from Yangtze River Delta cities, China," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(3), September.
    5. Yunho Cho & James Morley & Aarti Singh, 2024. "Did marginal propensities to consume change with the housing boom and bust?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 174-199, January.
    6. Lovenheim, Michael F. & Yun, Jun Hyun, 2025. "The effect of housing wealth on health care spending," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    7. Li, Jing & Wu, Maohua & Zhao, Chining, 2025. "High housing prices and low social integration of China’s new generation migrants in cities," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    8. Wei Fan & Yun He & Liang Hao & Fan Wu, 2024. "Do high house prices promote the development of China’s real economy? Empirical evidence based on the decomposition of real estate price," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 19(1), pages 1-25, January.
    9. Belloc, Ignacio & Molina, José Alberto & Velilla, Jorge, 2025. "Consumption responses to inheritances: The role of durable goods," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    10. Heilbron, John, 2021. "Credit Constraints and Bias in Hedonic Amenity Valuations," MPRA Paper 125713, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Hyunseung Oh & Choongryul Yang & Chamna Yoon, 2024. "Land development and frictions to housing supply over the business cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-010, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • G51 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Household Savings, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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