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Impact of technological development on the employment of older adults: Evidence from high-tech industry expansion in China

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  • Luo, Xi
  • Jia, Kaidong
  • Xia, Yiming
  • Zhao, Guochang

Abstract

Technological development and population ageing have been two defining trends in recent decades. However, whether technological advancements reinstate or displace employment opportunities for older workers remains unclear. Using a nationally representative dataset from China and the Bartik instrumental variable approach, we observe that while the overall impact of technological development on employment is estimated to be negative but statistically insignificant, the negative effect intensifies with age and becomes negative beyond the age of approximately 42. We suggest that displacement effects outweigh reinstatement effects, as the negative impact is driven primarily by older adults with lower socioeconomic statuses, who are more vulnerable to job displacement.

Suggested Citation

  • Luo, Xi & Jia, Kaidong & Xia, Yiming & Zhao, Guochang, 2026. "Impact of technological development on the employment of older adults: Evidence from high-tech industry expansion in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:156:y:2026:i:c:s0264999325004596
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107464
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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