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Racing With or Against the Machine? Evidence on the Role of Trade in Europe

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  • Terry Gregory
  • Anna Salomons
  • Ulrich Zierahn

Abstract

Digital technologies displace labor from routine tasks, raising concerns that labor is racing against the machine. We develop an empirically tractable task-based framework to estimate the aggregate employment effects of routine-replacing technological change (RRTC), along with the labor and product demand channels through which this aggregate effect comes about, focusing on the role of inter-regional trade. While RRTC has indeed had strong displacement effects in Europe between 1999 and 2010, it has simultaneously created new jobs through increased product demand, resulting in net employment growth. However, the distribution of gains from technological progress matters for its job-creating potential.

Suggested Citation

  • Terry Gregory & Anna Salomons & Ulrich Zierahn, 2022. "Racing With or Against the Machine? Evidence on the Role of Trade in Europe," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(2), pages 869-906.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:jeurec:v:20:y:2022:i:2:p:869-906.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fierro, Luca Eduardo & Caiani, Alessandro & Russo, Alberto, 2022. "Automation, Job Polarisation, and Structural Change," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 499-535.
    2. Florencia Jaccoud & Fabien Petit & Tommaso Ciarli & Maria Savona, 2024. "Automation and Employment over the Technology Life Cycle: Evidence from European Regions," CEPEO Working Paper Series 24-02, UCL Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities, revised Feb 2024.
    3. Jacobs, Arthur, 2023. "Capital-augmenting technical change in the context of untapped automation opportunities," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 155-166.
    4. Christina Gathmann & Felix Grimm & Erwin Winkler, 2024. "AI, Task Changes in Jobs, and Worker Reallocation," CESifo Working Paper Series 11585, CESifo.
    5. Albinowski, Maciej & Lewandowski, Piotr, 2024. "The impact of ICT and robots on labour market outcomes of demographic groups in Europe," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    6. Bachmann, Ronald & Gonschor, Myrielle & Lewandowski, Piotr & Madoń, Karol, 2024. "The impact of Robots on Labour market transitions in Europe," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 422-441.
    7. Lewandowski, Piotr & Szymczak, Wojciech, 2024. "Automation, Trade Unions and Atypical Employment," IZA Discussion Papers 17544, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Prettner, Klaus, 2023. "Stagnant wages in the face of rising labor productivity: The potential role of industrial robots," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PD).
    9. Diego Dabed Sitnisky & Sabrina Genz & Emilie Rademakers, 2023. "Resilience to Automation: The Role of Task Overlap for Job Finding," Working Papers 2312, Utrecht School of Economics.
    10. Du, Junhong & He, Jiajia & Yang, Jing & Chen, Xiaohong, 2024. "How industrial robots affect labor income share in task model: Evidence from Chinese A-share listed companies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    11. Rademakers Emilie & Zierahn-Weilage Ulrich, 2024. "New Technologies: End of Work or Structural Change?," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 335-344.
    12. Yoon, Chungeun, 2023. "Technology adoption and jobs: The effects of self-service kiosks in restaurants on labor outcomes," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    13. Harry Moroz & Mariana Viollaz, 2024. "The Future of Work in Central America and the Dominican Republic," World Bank Publications - Reports 42043, The World Bank Group.
    14. Hideki Nakamura & Joseph Zeira, 2024. "Automation and unemployment: help is on the way," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 215-250, June.
    15. Ana Abeliansky & Klaus Prettner & Ernesto Rodríguez Crespo, 2024. "Climate change and automation: the emission effects of robot adoption," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp370, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    16. Gathmann, Christina & Kagerl, Christian & Pohlan, Laura & Roth, Duncan, 2024. "The pandemic push: Digital technologies and workforce adjustments," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    17. Gravina, Antonio Francesco & Pappalardo, Maria Rosaria, 2022. "Are robots in rich countries a threat for employment in emerging economies?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    18. David Marguerit, 2025. "Augmenting or Automating Labor? The Effect of AI Development on New Work, Employment, and Wages," Papers 2503.19159, arXiv.org.
    19. Yang, Jia & Pei, Yu & Qiang, Wei, 2024. "The impact of automation on human capital investment," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(PB).
    20. Bustos, Emil, 2023. "The Effect of Centrally Bargained Wages on Firm Growth," Working Paper Series 1456, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    21. Abeliansky, Ana Lucia & Prettner, Klaus, 2023. "Automation and population growth: Theory and cross-country evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 345-358.
    22. Zoltán Elekes & Anna Baranowska-Rataj & Rikard Eriksson, 2023. "Regional diversification and labour market upgrading: local access to skill-related high-income jobs helps workers escaping low-wage employment," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 16(3), pages 417-430.
    23. Arntz, Melanie & Blesse, Sebastian & Doerrenberg, Philipp, 2022. "The end of work is near, isn't it? Survey evidence on automation angst," ZEW Discussion Papers 22-036, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    24. Piotr Lewandowski & Wojciech Szymczak, 2024. "Automation, Trade Unions and Involuntary Atypical Employment," IBS Working Papers 02/2024, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych.

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