IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/glodps/942.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Robots For Economic Development

Author

Listed:
  • Calì, Massimiliano
  • Presidente, Giorgio

Abstract

Recent evidence suggests that in manufacturing, automation technologies entail a trade-off between productivity gains and employment losses for the economies that adopt them. This paper casts doubts on such trade-off in the context of a developing country. It shows significant employment gains from automation in Indonesian manufacturing during the years 2008–2015, a period of rapid increase in robot imports. Analysis based on manufacturing plant data provides evidence that the absence of this trade-off is due to diminishing productivity returns to robot adoption. As a result, the benefits from automation could be particularly large for countries at early stages of industrialization.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Calì, Massimiliano & Presidente, Giorgio, 2021. "Robots For Economic Development," GLO Discussion Paper Series 942, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:glodps:942
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a
    for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eslava, Marcela & Haltiwanger, John & Kugler, Adriana & Kugler, Maurice, 2004. "The effects of structural reforms on productivity and profitability enhancing reallocation: evidence from Colombia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 333-371, December.
    2. Jan De Loecker & Pinelopi K. Goldberg & Amit K. Khandelwal & Nina Pavcnik, 2016. "Prices, Markups, and Trade Reform," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 445-510, March.
    3. Giuntella, Osea & Wang, Tianyi, 2019. "Is an Army of Robots Marching on Chinese Jobs?," IZA Discussion Papers 12281, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Maarten Goos & Alan Manning & Anna Salomons, 2009. "Job Polarization in Europe," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 58-63, May.
    5. Kirill Borusyak & Peter Hull & Xavier Jaravel, 2022. "Quasi-Experimental Shift-Share Research Designs," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(1), pages 181-213.
    6. Daron Acemoglu & Claire Lelarge & Pascual Restrepo, 2020. "Competing with Robots: Firm-Level Evidence from France," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 110, pages 383-388, May.
    7. Georg Graetz & Guy Michaels, 2018. "Robots at Work," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 753-768, December.
    8. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2019. "Automation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 3-30, Spring.
    9. Beata Javorcik & Steven Poelhekke, 2017. "Former Foreign Affiliates: Cast Out and Outperformed?," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 501-539.
    10. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/170cd4sul89ddpnfuomvfm0jc0 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Lucia Foster & John Haltiwanger & Chad Syverson, 2008. "Reallocation, Firm Turnover, and Efficiency: Selection on Productivity or Profitability?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 394-425, March.
    12. Adriana D. Kugler & Maurice Kugler & Laura Ripani & Rodimiro Rodrigo, 2020. "U.S. Robots and their Impacts in the Tropics: Evidence from Colombian Labor Markets," NBER Working Papers 28034, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Timothy J. Bartik, 1991. "Who Benefits from State and Local Economic Development Policies?," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number wbsle.
    14. Mary Amiti & Jozef Konings, 2007. "Trade Liberalization, Intermediate Inputs, and Productivity: Evidence from Indonesia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(5), pages 1611-1638, December.
    15. Duggan, Victor & Rahardja, Sjamsu & Varela, Gonzalo, 2013. "Service sector reform and manufacturing productivity : evidence from Indonesia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6349, The World Bank.
    16. Rodrigo Ad~ao & Michal Koles'ar & Eduardo Morales, 2018. "Shift-Share Designs: Theory and Inference," Papers 1806.07928, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2019.
    17. Artuc,Erhan & Bastos,Paulo S. R. & Rijkers,Bob, 2018. "Robots, Tasks and Trade," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8674, The World Bank.
    18. Daron Acemoglu & David Autor & Jonathon Hazell & Pascual Restrepo, 2020. "AI and Jobs: Evidence from Online Vacancies," NBER Working Papers 28257, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Maarten Goos & Alan Manning & Anna Salomons, 2014. "Explaining Job Polarization: Routine-Biased Technological Change and Offshoring," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(8), pages 2509-2526, August.
    20. Jan De Loecker & Frederic Warzynski, 2012. "Markups and Firm-Level Export Status," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2437-2471, October.
    21. David H. Autor & Frank Levy & Richard J. Murnane, 2003. "The Skill Content of Recent Technological Change: An Empirical Exploration," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(4), pages 1279-1333.
    22. Jozef Konings & Stijn Vanormelingen, 2015. "The Impact of Training on Productivity and Wages: Firm-Level Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(2), pages 485-497, May.
    23. David H. Autor & David Dorn, 2013. "The Growth of Low-Skill Service Jobs and the Polarization of the US Labor Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(5), pages 1553-1597, August.
    24. Diao, Xinshen & Ellis, Mia & McMillan, Margaret S. & Rodrik, Dani, 2021. "Africa’s manufacturing puzzle: Evidence from Tanzanian and Ethiopian firms," IFPRI discussion papers 2020, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    25. Alessandra Bonfiglioli & Rosario Crinò & Harald Fadinger & Gino Gancia, 2024. "Robot Imports and Firm-Level Outcomes," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(664), pages 3428-3444.
    26. Michael Koch & Ilya Manuylov & Marcel Smolka, 2021. "Robots and Firms," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(638), pages 2553-2584.
    27. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2020. "Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(6), pages 2188-2244.
    28. Erhan Artuc & Luc Christiaensen & Hernan Winkler, 2019. "Does Automation in Rich Countries Hurt Developing Ones? Evidence from the U.S. and Mexico," World Bank Publications - Reports 31425, The World Bank Group.
    29. Xinshen Diao & Mia Ellis & Margaret McMillan & Dani Rodrik, 2025. "Africa's Manufacturing Puzzle: Evidence from Tanzanian and Ethiopian Firms," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 39(2), pages 308-340.
    30. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2018. "The Race between Man and Machine: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares, and Employment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(6), pages 1488-1542, June.
    31. Philippe Aghion & Céline Antonin & Simon Bunel & Xavier Jaravel, 2020. "What Are the Labor and Product Market Effects of Automation? New Evidence from France," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-03403062, HAL.
    32. Eslava, Marcela & Haltiwanger, John & Kugler, Adriana & Kugler, Maurice, 2004. "The effects of structural reforms on productivity and profitabality enhancing reallocation: evidence from Colombia," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0408, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    33. Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham & Isaac Sorkin & Henry Swift, 2020. "Bartik Instruments: What, When, Why, and How," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(8), pages 2586-2624, August.
    34. Daniel A. Ackerberg & Kevin Caves & Garth Frazer, 2015. "Identification Properties of Recent Production Function Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83, pages 2411-2451, November.
    35. Edward Miguel & Michael Kremer, 2004. "Worms: Identifying Impacts on Education and Health in the Presence of Treatment Externalities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(1), pages 159-217, January.
    36. repec:lic:licosd:15104 is not listed on IDEAS
    37. De Loecker, Jan, 2007. "Do exports generate higher productivity? Evidence from Slovenia," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 69-98, September.
    38. Rodrigo Adão & Michal Kolesár & Eduardo Morales, 2019. "Shift-Share Designs: Theory and Inference," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(4), pages 1949-2010.
    39. Cali,Massimiliano & Presidente,Giorgio, 2021. "Automation and Manufacturing Performance in a Developing Country," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9653, The World Bank.
    40. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/170cd4sul89ddpnfuomvfm0jc0 is not listed on IDEAS
    41. Dauth, Wolfgang & Findeisen, Sebastian & Südekum, Jens & Wößner, Nicole, 2017. "German robots - the impact of industrial robots on workers," IAB-Discussion Paper 201730, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    42. de Vries, Gaaitzen J. & Gentile, Elisabetta & Miroudot, Sébastien & Wacker, Konstantin M., 2020. "The rise of robots and the fall of routine jobs," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    43. David H. Autor & Frank Levy & Richard J. Murnane, 2003. "The skill content of recent technological change: an empirical exploration," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue nov.
    44. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2022. "Demographics and Automation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(1), pages 1-44.
    45. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/3n1gbsj6rs80ipqv9d42nfd0ge is not listed on IDEAS
    46. Timothy F. Bresnahan & Erik Brynjolfsson & Lorin M. Hitt, 2002. "Information Technology, Workplace Organization, and the Demand for Skilled Labor: Firm-Level Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(1), pages 339-376.
    47. Faber, Marius, 2018. "Robots and reshoring: Evidence from Mexican local labor markets," Working papers 2018/27, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    48. Südekum, Jens & Dauth, Wolfgang & Findeisen, Sebastian & Woessner, Nicole, 2017. "German Robots – The Impact of Industrial Robots on Workers," CEPR Discussion Papers 12306, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    49. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2017. "Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series dp-297, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    50. Dani Rodrik, 2016. "Premature deindustrialization," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 1-33, March.
    51. Mary Hallward-Driemeier & Gaurav Nayyar, 2017. "Trouble in the Making?," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 27946, April.
    52. Maarten Goos & Alan Manning, 2007. "Lousy and Lovely Jobs: The Rising Polarization of Work in Britain," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 118-133, February.
    53. Faber, Marius, 2020. "Robots and reshoring: Evidence from Mexican labor markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    54. Artuc, Erhan & Christiaensen, Luc & Winkler, Hernan, 2019. "Does Automatization in Rich Countries hurt Developing Ones? Evidence from the US and Mexico," Jobs Group Papers, Notes, and Guides 30834024, The World Bank.
    55. Frey, Carl Benedikt & Osborne, Michael A., 2017. "The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 254-280.
    56. Mertens, Matthias, 2019. "Micro-mechanisms behind declining labour shares: Market power, production processes, and global competition," IWH-CompNet Discussion Papers 3/2019, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    57. Jan De Loecker & Paul T. Scott, 2016. "Estimating market power Evidence from the US Brewing Industry," NBER Working Papers 22957, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    58. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3n1gbsj6rs80ipqv9d42nfd0ge is not listed on IDEAS
    59. Ulrich Doraszelski & Jordi Jaumandreu, 2013. "R&D and Productivity: Estimating Endogenous Productivity," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(4), pages 1338-1383.
    60. James Bessen & Maarten Goos & Anna Salomons & Wiljan van den Berge, 2020. "Firm-Level Automation: Evidence from the Netherlands," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 110, pages 389-393, May.
    61. Katherine Stapleton & Michael Webb, 2020. "Automation, trade and multinational activity: Micro evidence from Spain," CSAE Working Paper Series 2020-16, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mohammad Zeqi Yasin, 2025. "Superstars or Super-Villains? Productivity Spillovers and Firm Dynamics in Indonesia," Papers 2510.11139, arXiv.org.
    2. Schneider, Florian, 2024. "Do robots boost productivity? A quantitative meta-study," MPRA Paper 123392, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Chen, Chinchih & Frey, Carl Benedikt & Presidente, Giorgio, 2022. "Automation or globalization? The impacts of robots and Chinese imports on jobs in the United Kingdom," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 528-542.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cali,Massimiliano & Presidente,Giorgio, 2021. "Automation and Manufacturing Performance in a Developing Country," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9653, The World Bank.
    2. Caselli, Mauro & Fracasso, Andrea & Scicchitano, Sergio & Traverso, Silvio & Tundis, Enrico, 2021. "Stop worrying and love the robot: An activity-based approach to assess the impact of robotization on employment dynamics," GLO Discussion Paper Series 802, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    3. Caselli, Mauro & Fracasso, Andrea & Scicchitano, Sergio & Traverso, Silvio & Tundis, Enrico, 2025. "What workers and robots do: An activity-based analysis of the impact of robotization on changes in local employment," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(1).
    4. Jasmine Mondolo, 2022. "The composite link between technological change and employment: A survey of the literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 1027-1068, September.
    5. Stemmler, Henry, 2023. "Automated Deindustrialization: How Global Robotization Affects Emerging Economies—Evidence from Brazil," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    6. Cirillo, Valeria & Evangelista, Rinaldo & Guarascio, Dario & Sostero, Matteo, 2021. "Digitalization, routineness and employment: An exploration on Italian task-based data," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(7).
    7. Antonio Martins-Neto & Nanditha Mathew & Pierre Mohnen & Tania Treibich, 2024. "Is There Job Polarization in Developing Economies? A Review and Outlook," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 39(2), pages 259-288.
    8. Gregory, Terry & Salomons, Anna & Zierahn, Ulrich, 2016. "Racing With or Against the Machine? Evidence from Europe," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145843, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    9. Cali,Massimiliano & Le Moglie,Marco & Presidente,Giorgio, 2021. "Gain without Pain ? Non-Tariff Measures, Plants’ Productivity and Markups," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9654, The World Bank.
    10. Fierro, Luca Eduardo & Caiani, Alessandro & Russo, Alberto, 2022. "Automation, Job Polarisation, and Structural Change," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 499-535.
    11. Davide Dottori, 2021. "Robots and employment: evidence from Italy," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(2), pages 739-795, July.
    12. Genz, Sabrina & Schnabel, Claus, 2021. "Digging into the digital divide: Workers' exposure to digitalization and its consequences for individual employment," Discussion Papers 118, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Chair of Labour and Regional Economics.
    13. Fernández-Macías, Enrique & Klenert, David & Antón, José-Ignacio, 2021. "Not so disruptive yet? Characteristics, distribution and determinants of robots in Europe," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 76-89.
    14. Cali,Massimiliano & Presidente,Giorgio, 2023. "Product Market Monopolies and Labor Market Monopsonies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10388, The World Bank.
    15. Cilekoglu, Akin A. & Moreno, Rosina & Ramos, Raul, 2024. "The impact of robot adoption on global sourcing," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(3).
    16. Zhang, Xinchun & Sun, Murong & Liu, Jianxu & Xu, Aijia, 2024. "The nexus between industrial robot and employment in China: The effects of technology substitution and technology creation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    17. Sergio De Nardis & Francesca Parente, 2022. "Technology and task changes in the major EU countries," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(2), pages 391-413, April.
    18. Chuan, A. & Zhang, W., 2021. "Non-College Occupations, Workplace Routinization, and the Gender Gap in College Enrollment," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2177, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    19. Wang, Ting & Zhang, Yi & Liu, Chun, 2024. "Robot adoption and employment adjustment: Firm-level evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    20. Stefan Jestl, 2022. "Industrial Robots, and Information and Communication Technology: The Employment Effects in EU Labour Markets," wiiw Working Papers 215, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • F63 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Economic Development

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:glodps:942. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/glabode.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.