IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v155y2026ics0264999325004377.html

Spatial dependencies in the relationship between automation and migrant worker employment: Evidence from Chinese cities

Author

Listed:
  • Yan, Zhoufu
  • Zhu, Qihong
  • Leibrecht, Markus
  • Wu, Fangwei

Abstract

China is exceptional in the speed of automation and the extent of rural labor migration. We investigate the impact of industrial automation on rural migrant employment in China, with a focus on spatial spillover effects. We used city-level employment data from 2011 to 2018 and industrial robot adoption as a proxy for automation, and applied a Spatial Durbin Model. We find that automation significantly reduces local rural migrant employment while generating positive spillovers in neighboring cities. These effects vary by migrants’ skills, tasks, industries, migration types, age, and marital status. Mechanism analyses reveal that automation fosters high-tech enterprise clustering and skill upgrading, creating skill premiums and labor outflows. Simultaneously, automation strengthens industrial linkages and structural similarity across neighboring cities, facilitating positive spillovers. The findings inform inter-regional policies aimed at stabilizing rural migrant employment and well-being amid technological transformation.

Suggested Citation

  • Yan, Zhoufu & Zhu, Qihong & Leibrecht, Markus & Wu, Fangwei, 2026. "Spatial dependencies in the relationship between automation and migrant worker employment: Evidence from Chinese cities," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:155:y:2026:i:c:s0264999325004377
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107442
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999325004377
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107442?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2018. "The Race between Man and Machine: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares, and Employment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(6), pages 1488-1542, June.
    2. Nick Drydakis, 2024. "Artificial intelligence capital and employment prospects," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 76(4), pages 901-919.
    3. Daron Acemoglu & Claire Lelarge & Pascual Restrepo, 2020. "Competing with Robots: Firm-Level Evidence from France," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 110, pages 383-388, May.
    4. Zhu, Ruini & Yuan, Ye & Wang, Yaojing, 2024. "Love, health, and robots: Automation, migration, and family responses in rural China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    5. Michell Dong & Jongkwan Lee & Hee-Seung Yang, 2024. "How does low-skilled immigration affect native wages? Evidence from Employment Permit System in Korea," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 76(2), pages 433-450.
    6. David H. Autor & Frank Levy & Richard J. Murnane, 2003. "The Skill Content of Recent Technological Change: An Empirical Exploration," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(4), pages 1279-1333.
    7. Philippe Aghion & Antonin Bergeaud & Matthieu Lequien & Marc J. Melitz, 2024. "The Heterogeneous Impact of Market Size on Innovation: Evidence from French Firm-Level Exports," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 106(3), pages 608-626, May.
    8. Trajtenberg, Manuel, 2018. "AI as the next GPT: a Political-Economy Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 12721, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    9. Song, Yang, 2014. "What should economists know about the current Chinese hukou system?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 200-212.
    10. Wang, Ting & Zhang, Yi & Liu, Chun, 2024. "Robot adoption and employment adjustment: Firm-level evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    11. Sushanta K. MALLICK & Ricardo M. SOUSA, 2017. "The skill premium effect of technological change: New evidence from United States manufacturing," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 156(1), pages 113-131, March.
    12. J. Paul Elhorst, 2003. "Specification and Estimation of Spatial Panel Data Models," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 26(3), pages 244-268, July.
    13. Yu, Lingzheng & Wang, Jiannan & Lou, Shiyan & Wei, Xiahai, 2024. "To leave or to stay: Digital economy development and migrant workers’ location," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    14. Lankisch, Clemens & Prettner, Klaus & Prskawetz, Alexia, 2019. "How can robots affect wage inequality?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 161-169.
    15. Yuhong Du & Xiahai Wei, 2022. "Technological change and unemployment: evidence from China," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(9), pages 851-854, May.
    16. Jungho Kim, 2014. "Employment Effects Of Low-Skilled Immigrants In Korea," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 39(2), pages 25-49, June.
    17. Kaizhi Yu & Yao Shi & Jiahan Feng, 2024. "The influence of robot applications on rural labor transfer," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-18, December.
    18. Frey, Carl Benedikt & Osborne, Michael A., 2017. "The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 254-280.
    19. Federico Belotti & Gordon Hughes & Andrea Piano Mortari, 2017. "Spatial panel-data models using Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 17(1), pages 139-180, March.
    20. David H. Autor, 2015. "Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workplace Automation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 3-30, Summer.
    21. Liu, Yunxin & Cao, Yuqiang & Lu, Meiting & Shan, Yaowen & Xu, Jiangang, 2024. "Automating efficiency: The impact of industrial robots on labor investment in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    22. Gan, Jiawu & Liu, Lihua & Qiao, Gang & Zhang, Qin, 2023. "The role of robot adoption in green innovation: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    23. Xie, Mengmeng & Ding, Lin & Xia, Yan & Guo, Jianfeng & Pan, Jiaofeng & Wang, Huijuan, 2021. "Does artificial intelligence affect the pattern of skill demand? Evidence from Chinese manufacturing firms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 295-309.
    24. Hu, Yong & Fisher-Vanden, Karen & Su, Baozhong, 2020. "Technological spillover through industrial and regional linkages: Firm-level evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 523-545.
    25. Qin, Meng & Wan, Yue & Dou, Junyi & Su, Chi Wei, 2024. "Artificial Intelligence: Intensifying or mitigating unemployment?," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    26. David Klenert & Enrique Fernández-Macías & José-Ignacio Antón, 2023. "Do robots really destroy jobs? Evidence from Europe," Economic and Industrial Democracy, Department of Economic History, Uppsala University, Sweden, vol. 44(1), pages 280-316, February.
    27. David H. Autor & Frank Levy & Richard J. Murnane, 2003. "The skill content of recent technological change: an empirical exploration," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue nov.
    28. Kerstin Hötte & Angelos Theodorakopoulos & Pantelis Koutroumpis, 2024. "Automation and taxation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 76(4), pages 945-969.
    29. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2020. "Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(6), pages 2188-2244.
    30. Hu, Xiaoshan & Song, Jie & Wan, Guanghua, 2024. "Transborder spillover effects of poverty on crime: Applying spatial econometric models to Chinese data," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    31. Brigitte C. Madrian, 1994. "Employment-Based Health Insurance and Job Mobility: Is there Evidence of Job-Lock?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(1), pages 27-54.
    32. Osea Giuntella & Yi Lu & Tianyi Wang, 2022. "How do Workers and Households Adjust to Robots? Evidence from China," NBER Working Papers 30707, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jurkat, Anne & Klump, Rainer & Schneider, Florian, 2025. "Robots and wages: A meta-analysis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 541-567.
    2. Domini, Giacomo & Grazzi, Marco & Moschella, Daniele & Treibich, Tania, 2021. "Threats and opportunities in the digital era: Automation spikes and employment dynamics," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(7).
    3. Yang, Kunyu & Kuang, Jinsong, 2025. "How artificial intelligence applications enhance enterprise green total factor productivity? A perspective on human-machine matching and labor skill structure," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 926-947.
    4. Caselli, Mauro & Fracasso, Andrea & Scicchitano, Sergio & Traverso, Silvio & Tundis, Enrico, 2025. "What workers and robots do: An activity-based analysis of the impact of robotization on changes in local employment," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(1).
    5. Zhou, Yuwen & Shi, Xin, 2025. "How does digital technology adoption affect corporate employment? Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    6. Fierro, Luca Eduardo & Caiani, Alessandro & Russo, Alberto, 2022. "Automation, Job Polarisation, and Structural Change," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 499-535.
    7. Zhang, Xinchun & Sun, Murong & Liu, Jianxu & Xu, Aijia, 2024. "The nexus between industrial robot and employment in China: The effects of technology substitution and technology creation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    8. Du, Longzheng & Lin, Weifen, 2022. "Does the application of industrial robots overcome the Solow paradox? Evidence from China," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    9. Luo, Xi & Jia, Kaidong & Xia, Yiming & Zhao, Guochang, 2026. "Impact of technological development on the employment of older adults: Evidence from high-tech industry expansion in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    10. Stefan Jestl, 2022. "Industrial Robots, and Information and Communication Technology: The Employment Effects in EU Labour Markets," wiiw Working Papers 215, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    11. Mauro Caselli & Andrea Fracasso & Sergio Scicchitano & Silvio Traverso & Enrico Tundis, 2021. "Stop worrying and love the robot: An activity-based approach to assess the impact of robotization on employment dynamics," DEM Working Papers 2021/06, Department of Economics and Management.
    12. Montobbio, Fabio & Staccioli, Jacopo & Virgillito, Maria Enrica & Vivarelli, Marco, 2022. "Robots and the origin of their labour-saving impact," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    13. Thomas Gries & Wim Naudé, 2022. "Modelling artificial intelligence in economics," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 56(1), pages 1-13, December.
    14. Benmelech, Efraim & Zator, Michał, 2025. "Robots and firm investment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    15. Diebold, Céline, 2025. "Using Google search data to examine factory automation and its effect on employment," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1301-1328.
    16. Genz, Sabrina & Gregory, Terry & Janser, Markus & Lehmer, Florian & Matthes, Britta, 2021. "How do workers adjust when firms adopt new technologies?," ZEW Discussion Papers 21-073, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    17. Qiao, Xiaole & He, Yang & Du, Qiang, 2025. "How does the urban digital economy drive labor allocation in China?—A perspective of factor mobility between digital and non-digital enterprises," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 1159-1175.
    18. Jasmine Mondolo, 2022. "The composite link between technological change and employment: A survey of the literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 1027-1068, September.
    19. Arntz, Melanie & Gregory, Terry & Zierahn-Weilage, Ulrich, 2019. "Digitalization and the Future of Work: Macroeconomic Consequences," IZA Discussion Papers 12428, IZA Network @ LISER.
    20. Deng, Yue & Feng, Aiya & Hu, Dezhuang, 2025. "Gender earnings gap in Chinese firms: Can it be narrowed by industrial robots?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:155:y:2026:i:c:s0264999325004377. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.