IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v101y2021ics0264999321001164.html

The quantitative importance of technology and demand shocks for unemployment fluctuations in a shopping economy

Author

Listed:
  • Borys, Paweł
  • Doligalski, Paweł
  • Kopiec, Paweł

Abstract

We construct and estimate a business cycle model with search and matching frictions in the labor market and in the product market. We show that the dynamic structure of the model and the endogenous job separation rate are important to accurately represent the empirical responses to the technology and the demand shocks. Our main finding is that the demand shock explains at least 58% of the unemployment fluctuations in the US, while the technology shock accounts for the residual.

Suggested Citation

  • Borys, Paweł & Doligalski, Paweł & Kopiec, Paweł, 2021. "The quantitative importance of technology and demand shocks for unemployment fluctuations in a shopping economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:101:y:2021:i:c:s0264999321001164
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2021.105527
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999321001164
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2021.105527?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or

    for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models—Rejoinder," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 211-219.
    2. Camille Landais & Pascal Michaillat & Emmanuel Saez, 2018. "A Macroeconomic Approach to Optimal Unemployment Insurance: Theory," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 152-181, May.
    3. Per Krusell & Toshihiko Mukoyama & Richard Rogerson & Ayşegül Şahin, 2017. "Gross Worker Flows over the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(11), pages 3447-3476, November.
    4. Lawrence Christiano & Mathias Trabandt & Karl Walentin, 2021. "Involuntary Unemployment and the Business Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 39, pages 26-54, January.
    5. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    6. Fabien Postel‐Vinay & Hélène Turon, 2014. "The Impact of Firing Restrictions on Labour Market Equilibrium in the Presence of On‐the‐job Search," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(575), pages 31-61, March.
    7. Christopher A. Pissarides & Barbara Petrongolo, 2001. "Looking into the Black Box: A Survey of the Matching Function," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(2), pages 390-431, June.
    8. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5por5bt92h8l0bc7ls4elmcc0b is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Antonella Trigari, 2009. "Equilibrium Unemployment, Job Flows, and Inflation Dynamics," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(1), pages 1-33, February.
    10. Camille Landais & Pascal Michaillat & Emmanuel Saez, 2018. "A Macroeconomic Approach to Optimal Unemployment Insurance: Applications," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 182-216, May.
    11. Thomas A. Lubik, 2009. "Estimating a search and matching model of the aggregate labor market," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 95(Spr), pages 101-120.
    12. Garey Ramey & Wouter J. den Haan & Joel Watson, 2000. "Job Destruction and Propagation of Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 482-498, June.
    13. Robert Shimer, 2005. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 25-49, March.
    14. Greg Kaplan & Guido Menzio, 2016. "Shopping Externalities and Self-Fulfilling Unemployment Fluctuations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(3), pages 771-825.
    15. Carl E. Walsh, 2005. "Labor Market Search, Sticky Prices, and Interest Rate Policies," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(4), pages 829-849, October.
    16. Roger E. A. Farmer, 2008. "Aggregate demand and supply," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 4(1), pages 77-93, March.
    17. Galí, Jordi & Rabanal, Pau, 2004. "Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations: How Well Does the RBC Model Fit Post-War US Data?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4522, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 113-172.
    19. Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas & Wasmer, Etienne, 2015. "Macroeconomic dynamics in a model of goods, labor, and credit market frictions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 97-113.
    20. Robert Shimer, 2010. "Labor Markets and Business Cycles," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9217.
    21. Wouter J Den Haan & Pontus Rendahl & Markus Riegler, 2018. "Unemployment (Fears) and Deflationary Spirals," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 16(5), pages 1281-1349.
    22. Fabio Canova & David Lopez‐Salido & Claudio Michelacci, 2013. "The Ins and Outs of Unemployment: An Analysis Conditional on Technology Shocks-super-," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 123, pages 515-539, June.
    23. Christoph Boehm & Nitya Pandalai Nayar, 2018. "Are supply curves convex? Implications for state-dependent responses to shocks," 2018 Meeting Papers 336, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    24. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5e9a6u2pke9ulafplci76jms73 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. David H. Autor & John J. Donohue & Stewart J. Schwab, 2006. "The Costs of Wrongful-Discharge Laws," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(2), pages 211-231, May.
    26. Miles S. Kimball & John G. Fernald & Susanto Basu, 2006. "Are Technology Improvements Contractionary?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1418-1448, December.
    27. Zhen Huo & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 2013. "Paradox of Thrift Recessions," NBER Working Papers 19443, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Eric W. Bond & Larry Samuelson, 1984. "Durable Good Monopolies with Rational Expectations and Replacement Sales," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 15(3), pages 336-345, Autumn.
    29. Gary Solon & Ryan Michaels & Michael W. L. Elsby, 2009. "The Ins and Outs of Cyclical Unemployment," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 84-110, January.
    30. Den Haan, Wouter, 2013. "Inventories and the Role of Goods-Market Frictions for Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 9628, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    31. Jordi Galí & Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2012. "Unemployment in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(1), pages 329-360.
    32. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    33. Merz, Monika, 1995. "Search in the labor market and the real business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 269-300, November.
    34. Barro, Robert J & Grossman, Herschel I, 1971. "A General Disequilibrium Model of Income and Employment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 82-93, March.
    35. Shigeru Fujita & Garey Ramey, 2012. "Exogenous versus Endogenous Separation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(4), pages 68-93, October.
    36. Zhen Huo & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 2012. "Engineering a paradox of thrift recession," Staff Report 478, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    37. Fabio Canova & David Lopez-Salido & Claudio Michelacci, 2010. "The effects of technology shocks on hours and output: a robustness analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(5), pages 755-773.
    38. Barnichon, Regis, 2010. "Building a composite Help-Wanted Index," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 109(3), pages 175-178, December.
    39. Bils, Mark, 2016. "Deducing markups from stockout behavior," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 320-331.
    40. Krause, Michael U. & Lubik, Thomas A., 2007. "The (ir)relevance of real wage rigidity in the New Keynesian model with search frictions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 706-727, April.
    41. Andolfatto, David, 1996. "Business Cycles and Labor-Market Search," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(1), pages 112-132, March.
    42. Yan Bai & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 2015. "Demand Shocks and Open Economy Puzzles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 644-649, May.
    43. Moen, Espen R, 1997. "Competitive Search Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 385-411, April.
    44. Claudio Michelacci & David Lopez-Salido, 2007. "Technology Shocks and Job Flows," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 74(4), pages 1195-1227.
    45. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
    46. Robert E. Hall, 2005. "Employment Fluctuations with Equilibrium Wage Stickiness," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 50-65, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sara Boni & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2022. "A Structural Analysis of Unemployment-Generating Supply Shocks with an Application to the US Pharmaceutical Industry," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS94, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Imen Ben Mohamed & Marine Salès, 2015. "Credit imperfections, labor market frictions and unemployment: a DSGE approach," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01082491, HAL.
    2. Alejandro Justiniano & Claudio Michelacci, 2011. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies in the US and Europe," NBER Working Papers 17429, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Alejandro Justiniano & Claudio Michelacci, 2012. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies in the United States and Europe," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(1), pages 169-235.
    4. Josué Diwambuena & Raquel Fonseca & Stefan Schubert, 2021. "Italian Labour Frictions and Wage Rigidities in an Estimated DSGE," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS88, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    5. Kilponen, Juha & Vanhala, Juuso, 2009. "Productivity and job flows: heterogeneity of new hires and continuing jobs in the business cycle," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 15/2009, Bank of Finland.
    6. Antonella Trigari, 2006. "The Role of Search Frictions and Bargaining for Inflation Dynamics," Working Papers 304, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    7. Krause, Michael U. & Lopez-Salido, David & Lubik, Thomas A., 2008. "Inflation dynamics with search frictions: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(5), pages 892-916, July.
    8. Nils M. Gornemann & Keith Kuester & Makoto Nakajima, 2012. "Monetary policy with heterogeneous agents," Working Papers 12-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    9. Imen Ben Mohamed & Marine Salès, 2015. "Credit imperfections, labor market frictions and unemployment: a DSGE approach," Working Papers hal-01082491, HAL.
    10. Francesco Furlanetto & Nicolas Groshenny, "undated". "Mismatch Shocks and Unemployment During the Great Recession," School of Economics Working Papers 2015-14, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
    11. Rogerson, Richard & Shimer, Robert, 2011. "Search in Macroeconomic Models of the Labor Market," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 7, pages Pages: 61, Elsevier.
    12. Paweł Borys & Paweł Doligalski & Paweł Kopiec, 2018. "Labor market institutions in a shopping economy," NBP Working Papers 275, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    13. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin S. Eichenbaum & Mathias Trabandt, 2016. "Unemployment and Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84(4), pages 1523-1569, July.
    14. Kilponen, Juha & Vanhala, Juuso, 2009. "Productivity and job flows: heterogeneity of new hires and continuing jobs in the business cycle," Working Paper Series 1080, European Central Bank.
    15. Federico Di Pace & Matthias Hertweck, 2019. "Labor Market Frictions, Monetary Policy, and Durable Goods," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 32, pages 274-304, April.
    16. Barnichon, Regis, 2010. "Productivity and unemployment over the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(8), pages 1013-1025, November.
    17. Shigeru Fujita, 2011. "Dynamics of worker flows and vacancies: evidence from the sign restriction approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 89-121, January/F.
    18. Lechthaler, Wolfgang & Merkl, Christian & Snower, Dennis J., 2010. "Monetary persistence and the labor market: A new perspective," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 968-983, May.
    19. Sergio Rebelo, 2005. "Real Business Cycle Models: Past, Present, and Future," NBER Working Papers 11401, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2020. "Search and matching frictions and business cycle fluctuations in Bulgaria," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 19(3), pages 319-340.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:101:y:2021:i:c:s0264999321001164. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.