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Long-term effects of weather-induced migration on urban labor and housing markets

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  • Busso, Matias
  • Chauvin, Juan Pablo

Abstract

This paper explores the effects of weather-induced rural–urban migration on labor and housing market outcomes of urban residents in Brazil. In order to identify causal effects, it uses weather shocks to the rural municipalities of origin of migrants. We show that larger migration shocks led to an increase in employment growth and a reduction in wage growth of 4 and 5 percent, respectively. The increased migration flows also affected the housing market in destination cities. On average, it led to 4 percent faster growth of the housing stock, accompanied by 6 percent faster growth in housing rents. These effects vary sharply by housing quality. We find a substantial positive effect on the growth rates of the most penurious housing units (with no effect on rents) and a negative effect on the growth of housing units in the next quality tier (with a positive effect on rents). This suggests that rural immigration growth slowed down housing-quality upgrading in destination cities.

Suggested Citation

  • Busso, Matias & Chauvin, Juan Pablo, 2025. "Long-term effects of weather-induced migration on urban labor and housing markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:juecon:v:146:y:2025:i:c:s009411902500004x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2025.103739
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Weather-induced migration; Rural-urban migration; Urban labor markets; Urban housing markets; Developing countries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J46 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Informal Labor Market
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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