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The impact of climate change on internal migration in Brazil

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  • Oliveira, Jaqueline
  • Pereda, Paula

Abstract

Business-as-usual climate-change forecasts point to sharp temperature rises and agriculture yield losses in many regions of Brazil. We study the impact of these changes on internal migration and population distribution. We employ a spatial equilibrium model in which the climate shapes workers' locational choices through the usual amenity-value channel and the novel indirect channel via agriculture wages. Our simulations reveal that migration rates are 9.65% higher, and that 0.9 million more people migrate inter-regionally under future climate conditions. Furthermore, climate change will likely exacerbate the country's regional inequalities, as the most developed regions gain population and welfare while the least developed regions lose.

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  • Oliveira, Jaqueline & Pereda, Paula, 2020. "The impact of climate change on internal migration in Brazil," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeeman:v:103:y:2020:i:c:s0095069620300632
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2020.102340
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    Cited by:

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    2. Katrin Millock & Cees Withagen, 2021. "Climate and Migration," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anil Markandya & Dirk Rübbelke (ed.), CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT, chapter 10, pages 309-341, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. C. A. K. Lovell, 2021. "The Pandemic, The Climate, and Productivity," CEPA Working Papers Series WP112021, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    4. Yanjiao Song & Nina Zhu, 2022. "Does Natural Amenity Matter on the Permanent Settlement Intention? Evidence from Elderly Migrants in Urban China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(3), pages 1-17, January.
    5. Yan Chen & Xiaohong Chen & Hongshan Ai & Xiaoqing Tan, 2022. "Temperature and Migration Intention: Evidence from the Unified National Graduate Entrance Examination in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(16), pages 1-23, August.
    6. Matsuki, Takashi & Pan, Lei, 2021. "Per capita carbon emissions convergence in developing Asia: A century of evidence from covariate unit root test with endogenous structural breaks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    7. Chinyere Osuji, 2024. "Moving for Love: Interracial Marriage and Migration in Brazil," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-21, January.
    8. Jaqueline Oliveira & Bruno Palialol & Paula Pereda, 2021. "Do temperature shocks affect non-agriculture wages in Brazil? Evidence from individual-level panel data," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2021_13, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate change; Agriculture productivity; Internal migration; Regional inequality; Spatial equilibrium;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • R13 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General Equilibrium and Welfare Economic Analysis of Regional Economies
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects

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