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From beef cattle to sheep under global warming? An analysis of adaptation by livestock species choice in South America

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  • Seo, S. Niggol
  • McCarl, Bruce A.
  • Mendelsohn, Robert

Abstract

This paper examines how South American farmers' choices of livestock species vary across the range of climate and in turn infer from them as to what would happen under climate changes. We examine the choice of five primary species using a multinomial logit model with and without climate variability measures based on 1300 livestock farm surveys in seven countries. The results indicate that climate variables are highly significant determinants of primary species choice after controlling for soils, geography, household characteristics, and country fixed effects. We find the probability of adopting any livestock increases with warming, but decreases when it becomes too wet. The impacts of climate change would vary by species and climate scenarios. For example, under a hot and dry CCC scenario by 2060, beef cattle decrease by 3.2%, dairy cattle by 2.3%, pigs by 0.5%, and chickens by 0.9%, which is offset by a large increase in sheep by 7%. These adaptive changes vary again by country. Large changes are observed in the Andean countries. Under the hot dry scenario, dairy cattle increase in Uruguay and Argentina, but decrease elsewhere. The increase in sheep occurs mostly in the Andes mountain countries such as Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, and Venezuela. Under a milder and wetter scenario, beef cattle choice declines in Colombia, Ecuador, and Venezuela, but increases in Argentina and Chile. Sheep increase in Colombia and Venezuela, but decrease in the high mountains of Chile where chickens are chosen more frequently.

Suggested Citation

  • Seo, S. Niggol & McCarl, Bruce A. & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2010. "From beef cattle to sheep under global warming? An analysis of adaptation by livestock species choice in South America," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(12), pages 2486-2494, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:69:y:2010:i:12:p:2486-2494
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kim, Chung-Sil & Jung, Hye-Kyung & Lee, Sang-Ho & Park, Soo-Young & Takei, Atsuo, 2012. "An Analysis on Determinants of Farmers´ Adaptation to Climate Change in Korea," Journal of Rural Development/Nongchon-Gyeongje, Korea Rural Economic Institute, vol. 35(2), July.
    2. Anderson, Blake & M'Gonigle, Michael, 2012. "Does ecological economics have a future?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 37-48.
    3. Yuquan Zhang & Amy Hagerman & Bruce McCarl, 2013. "Influence of climate factors on spatial distribution of Texas cattle breeds," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(2), pages 183-195, May.
    4. Megersa, Bekele & Markemann, André & Angassa, Ayana & Ogutu, Joseph O. & Piepho, Hans-Peter & Valle Zaráte, Anne, 2014. "Impacts of climate change and variability on cattle production in southern Ethiopia: Perceptions and empirical evidence," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 23-34.
    5. repec:wsi:ccexxx:v:08:y:2017:i:03:n:s2010007817400012 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Jianhong Mu & Bruce McCarl & Anne Wein, 2013. "Adaptation to climate change: changes in farmland use and stocking rate in the U.S," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 18(6), pages 713-730, August.
    7. Kam, S.P. & Badjeck, M.C. & Teh, L. & Teh, L. & Tran, N., 2012. "Autonomous adaptation to climate change by shrimp and catfish farmers in Vietnam’s Mekong River delta," Working Papers, The WorldFish Center, number 40061, September.
    8. Seo, S. Niggol, 2011. "An analysis of public adaptation to climate change using agricultural water schemes in South America," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(4), pages 825-834, February.
    9. Sam Fankhauser, 2016. "Adaptation to climate change," GRI Working Papers 255, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    10. S. Seo, 2013. "Refining spatial resolution and spillovers of a micro-econometric analysis of adapting portfolios to climate change using the global positioning system," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 18(7), pages 1019-1034, October.
    11. Florence Crick, Shaikh Eskander, Sam Fankhauser, Mamadou Diop, 2017. "How do African SMEs respond to climate risks? Evidence from Kenya and Senegal," GRI Working Papers 284, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.

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